TRADING FOR CP3

Posted by: Tom Sunnergren
07/27/10 7:59 am EST

The following post was inspired by fellow True Hoop Network scribe Ryan Schwan at hornets247.com who recently emailed the entire True Hoop Network asking for each blog to submit its home team’s best offer for Chris Paul.  Ryan will the gather the offers, rank them, and virtually trade Paul just for kicks.  

So of course we here at Philadunkia.com went to work right away on getting Paul into a 76ers uniform. 

Do you think Allen Iverson will be pissed if we let Chris Paul wear the number 3?

After the jump, Philadunkia’s trade offer for Chris Paul…

Alright, so rumor has it that CP3 will formally request a trade from the Hornets in the next day or so.  That same rumor has it the Hornets will try to comply (or maybe not).  Mean while, the Hornets GM seems to be denial on the whole topic.  So the whole situation seems to be a bit of a mess.  But when it comes to rumors of NBA stars demanding  to be traded, where there is smoke, there is usually fire.  But before we roll up our sleeves and see if we can figure out a way to get him in a Sixers jersey, I’d like to take a moment to marvel at the greatness of Chris Paul.  Two first names, no excuses.

 

The first thing that jumps out is how complete he is.  Chris Paul is above-average, sometimes considerably so, in every single facet of the game, save blocks. He’s a very good and very efficient scorer. He’s a deft passer who manages to keep these passes out of the hands of opponents.  And he has a knack for swiping steals and grabbing boards. And avoiding foul trouble. And he shoots well from the line.

So he’s a terrifically productive player.  How productive?  True Hoop Network’s fearless leader Henry Abbot mentioned in a post on Sunday that Lebron, Dwight Howard, D-Wade, and Kevin Durant are the only players in the association better than Paul.  The numbers don’t necessarily agree.  In ’07-08 and ’08-09 he was the most productive player in the League.

 

(*Both charts courtesy of roblog.  Great, great site.)

So a CP3 trade would be very good news for the Sixers.  But what’s in it for New Orleans?

What’s in it for New Orleans?

So my trade proposal is here.

Jrue Holiday is the lynch-pin of this imagined deal.  While NOH wouldn’t necessarily be desperate for PG help post-Paul with Collison waiting in the wings, Holiday is arguably an upgrade, and without a doubt the best piece the Sixers have to offer.  He improved radically last year, has prototypical size for a PG, and played consistently top-notch defense for a rookie.  This becomes more impressive when it’s considered in light of the fact that he was the youngest player in the league.  If NOH couldn’t find a way to keep him on the court, they could certainly flip him for value.

Speights is a promising young center who grades out famously well in PER. Like Jrue, he’s young, cheap and has oodles of “upside.”

Thaddeus Young has been somewhat of a disappointment.  His shooting percentage has dipped the last few years (largely due to an increase in threes) and he’s not much of a rebounder for a guy with his size and leaping ability. But he has shown flashes, and like the two before him, he’s young, cheap, and requires no commitment.

Jason Kapono is an expiring contract.

Iguodala is a more interesting case.  While NOH is trying to cut payroll, and his contract is a bit cumbersome, they pretty much have to take it back if they want to dump Okafor (which they do, badly) and don’t want to take on Elton Brand (which they wouldn’t, equally badly).

While much has been written about Iguodala’s deal being over-large, a closer look at the numbers tells a different story.  A win in the NBA has been worth about $1.7 million the last two years, depending on whose salary data you trust*.  While wins are worth more to contending teams than to ones that don’t contend, $1.7 mill is a fair baseline to use.

(* This is determined by taking the total salary paid out to the players over a given season and dividing it by the total number games won, 41 per team.)

AI9 is entering year three of a six -year 80-million-dollar deal.  He produced 13.1 wins in year one and 13.6 wins in year two.  That’s over $45 million of production for which the Sixers paid roughly $26 million.

 So Iggy is a nice value.  And given the interest he drew at the trade deadline I think this is recognized by at least a handful of GMs.

So while the deal is panned by the ESPN trade machine (a -13 dip in expected wins), it makes the Hornets younger, cheaper, and provides them with a productive veteran*.

(*It would also provide the Louisiana Department of Mental Health with grounds to put Dell Demps in a home.)

What’s in it for the Sixers

1.)    CP3 is a beast

2.)    Emeka Okafor isn’t that bad.

One is an obvious.  Two is less obvious, but no less true.

Okafor is entering the third year of a six-year, $72 million dollar deal.  He produced 13.17 wins in year one and 7.55 wins this past season.  This is $35.2 million of production for which he was paid about $24 million*.  So, so far he’s been a nice guy to have around.  The concern, in as far as there should be one, is that he appears to be in a period of decline.  This is sort of unusual for a guy who’s 27 and suggests that some of his injuries are catching up to him.  That said, so far he’s been worth his paycheck and given his age there’s a pretty good chance he’ll continue to be worth it for the remainder of the deal.

(*I’m just pretending each contract is paid out evenly.)

How’s it Gonna Be?

I’m sort of puzzled by this whole situation. While Paul pushing to get out of NO makes sense because they suck, his pushing to get into NY (presumably) makes no sense because they suck as well.  I think he’s laboring under the assumption that a big three composed of him, Amare, and Carmello will rival the one in Miami. This is a false assumption. James, Wade, and Bosh combined to produce 53.5 wins last season. CP3’s dream big three produced 26.2.

What makes even less sense is that NOH would consider moving him.  He’s terrific.  He’s young.  And he’s, given his level of production, cheap.

My sense is that he stays in NO.


 
 
 

5 Responses to “TRADING FOR CP3”

  1. Jumpin'
    27. July 2010 at 12:33

    Instead
    How about Okafor and Posey for Brand and Speights?

    We get an inerior defender, NO gets two scorers for Paul to get the ball to.

    We get rid of Brand and Speights is fungible.

  2. cha cha cha
    27. July 2010 at 12:45

    so the starters would be CP, Turner, Nocioni, Brand, and Okafor? that’s a lumbering frontcourt, but that backcourt is nice to think about.

    also, no one’s taking Brand’s contract, especially NO.

  3. ActuallyBrown
    30. July 2010 at 06:26

    I really appreciate the statistical depth Philadunkia goes into when weighing all of the options like this…but I’m under the impression that a lot of players look at things from more of an on-court chemistry angle than a statistical angle. WP48 and all that are great at calling out a player’s weaknesses if they’re high or below average, but I would think CP3 (or any other player) is more like, “I’d like to play with [players x] or in [city x].”

    Just a thought for the sake of perspective.

  4. Philadunkia » LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM; IGUODALA IS GOOD
    6. August 2010 at 10:31

    […] I didn’t want to reopen this can of worms, because I’ve made this argumentbefore, as have other writersfor this blog, but it bears repeating, your cousin needs correcting, […]

  5. A
    8. August 2010 at 20:18

    they would defiantly need th trade Chris Paul for ai

Leave a Reply