VALUE OF A WIN

$1,680,000

That was what it cost to win an NBA regular season game in 2011-2012.  The 7-6 won 35 games this past season and paid $53,951,238 to do so.   It’s supposed to cost $58,800,000 to win 35 games.  Given those numbers let’s look at the value each member of the 76er’s brought to the regular season roster. 

The salaries have been adjusted to a 66 game season.  Value $ is equal to WP*1,680,000 – Salary.  The wins produced are a mix of advance stats calculations that take into consideration the players entire regular season.  The numbers are not exact and the wins produced for the 76ers is off by .91 wins.  In the calculations below, the .91 is adjusted for and subtracted from the equation which is noted below.

Also in this article, I will give a list of the 50 or so most productive regular season players in the NBA last season.  In this calculation, as well as the full Sixers evaluation, minutes played and efficiency are both hugely important.  Defense is calculated into this as well, so elite defenders and Matadors are both properly accounted for.


 

Player   Salary   Wins Produced   Value $   Adjusted Salary   Mins
                     
Andre Iguodala   10,891,408   6.03   2,598,992    13,490,400   2209
Elton Brand    13,731,000    5.27   4,877,400   8,853,600   1732
Thaddeus Young    6,019,089   4.72   1,910,511   7,929,600   1755
Lou Williams   4,166,049    4.1   2,721,951   6,888,000    1682
Jodie Meeks    687,679   3.56   5,293,121    5,980,800    1644
Jrue Holiday   1,401,646    3.31   4,159,154    5,560,800    2196
Evan Turner    3,982,408    2.69       538,792        4,519,200    1713
Spencer Hawes    3,260,580   2.35        687,420    3,948,000    920
Lavoy Allen   381,193    1.58   2,273,207    2,654,400    624
Nik Vucevic    1,324,379    1.45   1,111,621    2,436,000   812
Tony Battie    687,679   0.25       -267,679        420,000    295
Rest of Team   7,418,128    -1.4    -9,770,128    -2,352,000      234

 

The wins produced total is 35.91, The extra .91 wins multiplied by 1,680,000 = 1,528,800 in additional salary that must be subtracted.  Adjusted Total Salaries is 60,328,800 – 1,528,800 = $58,800,000 Analyzing the above calculations we find several interesting points:
 — Andre Iguodala is amazing, he is without doubt one of the best and most dynamic players in the NBA.  There is a reason he is an Olympian and viewed in such high regard by his peers, most notably Lebron and Kobe.  Just like the previous 3 seasons, in 2011-2012, Iguodala was underpaid for his services.  Barring a catastrophic injury, Iguodala will be opting out of his contract in the 2013 off-season and signing a near max deal.
 
 — Jrue Holiday is overplayed by way more than my previous article’s estimation 9 minutes per game, he was the 3rd best PG and 3rd best SG.  He might wanna forget about getting a max contract next off-season.  Right now Holiday is a better SG than PG.
 
— Thaddeus Young’s game is built for the regular season, he needs to be traded yesterday.  Thaddeus really needs to be on a team where he plays the bulk minutes at SF.  Thad is only 6’5.75 without shoes, that is just not big enough to play PF in the NBA.  If Philadelphia has a plan, Thaddeus or Iguodala will not be on the team at the start of the 2013 off-season.
 
— Elton Brand was the 34th most valuable player in the NBA, guarding the other team’s best big while shooting 50%, averaging 7.7 rebounds with a 4:1 ratio of steals, blocks and assists to turnovers really is winning basketball.  Brand was amnestied and the Mavericks just paid $2.1 million for a guy who is worth $9 million next year if he averages 80% of what he did this past season.
— Jodie Meeks is a starting NBA Shooting Guard, not fouling, not turning it over and a TS% of 55 really is valuable at SG.  He isn’t going to be a starter on an NBA champion but he is would’ve been the most productive 2 guard on at least 8 teams this past season.
 
— Speaking of ET, he is the 2nd best PG and 4th best SG, he must really dislike Doug Collins and Holiday and rightly so.  Turner should be the starting PG next year.  His basketball skill set is more suited to being a PG and physically, he would be the most physical PG in the League.
 
— Everyone’s favorite Sweet Lou Williams was the best PG and SG on the team, he was amazing value at 4yr/$21 million.  He could have gotten more from Milwaukee and should have gotten more from the 76ers even if it was for less years.
— Spencer Hawes is going to be really valuable for 30 mpg at center if he stays healthy.  It is a total waste to play Hawes in the front court with a player who is a huge negative on offense (Kwame Brown) because it partially negates one of Hawes’ best skills, passing. 
 
— Lavoy Allen and Vucevic should be playing 25 minutes a night each next year.  Both are NBA bigs, Allen is better right now, but Vucevic is more versatile and equally valuable, because he can play PF/C. In regards to our Free Agent additions of Nick Young, Dorell Wright, Kwame Brown and Royal IveyKwame Brown has been good for 1.77 wins every 1312 minutes in his career.  Those numbers are based on 16mpg in a 82 game season. 

 
Nick Young has produced .6 wins total over the course of his entire career.  That is not a typo, other than shooting 3pters from the corners (where he is top 5 in the NBA at 54%, 57% from the right corner), Nick Young is a huge negative on court presence.
 
Royal Ivey has 205 points, 44 assists, 74 rebounds the last 3 seasons combined, enough said. 
 
Dorell Wright produced nearly 11 wins the past 2 seasons in 4800 minutes, he was a great pick up and super value.  He should be on the court for heavy minutes next year 2011-2012 Most Valuable Regular Season Players by Wins Produced
 1. Lebron 13.45
 2. CP3 11.38
 3. KD 10.21
 4. Tyson Chandler 9.65
 5. KLove 8.87
 6. Joakim Noah 8.62
 7. James Harden 8.43
 8. Andre “Overpayed, Roleplayer” Iguodala 8.03
 9. Blake Griffin 7.8
 10. Ryan Anderson 7.71 List continued

Dwight 7.69, Bynum 7.25, Nash 6.99, Wade 6.8,  Marcin Gortat 6.75, Paul Millsap 6.71, Serge Ibaka 6.7, Pau Gasol 6.56, Greg Monroe 6.51, Ersan illyasova 6.36,  Ty Lawson 6.33, Marc Gasol 6.22, Kawhi Leonard 6.16, DeAndre Jordan 6.09, Mike Conley 5.99, Paul George 5.87, Carlos Boozer 5.8, Pierce 5.72, Garnett 5.71, Rondo 5.7, Kris Humphries 5.66, Jose Calderon 5.45, Roy Hibbert 5.37, Elton Brand (#33) 5.27, Josh Smith 5.24, Jeff Teague 5.19, Gerald Wallace 5.17, Rudy Gay 5.07, Jared Dudley 5.02, Joe Johnson 4.99, Kenneth Faried 4.84, Deng 4.76, Brandon Rush 4.75

This list was calculated the same way as was done with the full 76ers roster.  Skepticism is certainly expected and this list isn’t the be all, end all of wins produced lists.  There should be some very  interesting discussion about readers think about what is right and wrong about all of the above.  It must be pointed out these are based on total production thought the regular season.  Playing time, offensive efficiency and defense are heavily weighed into the Sixers and NBA top 40 list.  One thing that is often overlooked, is that the most undervalued skill in the NBA is staying healthy.

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