VALUE OF A WIN

Posted by: Steve Toll
07/25/12 11:32 am EST

$1,680,000

That was what it cost to win an NBA regular season game in 2011-2012.  The 7-6 won 35 games this past season and paid $53,951,238 to do so.   It’s supposed to cost $58,800,000 to win 35 games.  Given those numbers let’s look at the value each member of the 76er’s brought to the regular season roster. 

The salaries have been adjusted to a 66 game season.  Value $ is equal to WP*1,680,000 – Salary.  The wins produced are a mix of advance stats calculations that take into consideration the players entire regular season.  The numbers are not exact and the wins produced for the 76ers is off by .91 wins.  In the calculations below, the .91 is adjusted for and subtracted from the equation which is noted below.

Also in this article, I will give a list of the 50 or so most productive regular season players in the NBA last season.  In this calculation, as well as the full Sixers evaluation, minutes played and efficiency are both hugely important.  Defense is calculated into this as well, so elite defenders and Matadors are both properly accounted for.


 

Player   Salary   Wins Produced   Value $   Adjusted Salary   Mins
                     
Andre Iguodala   10,891,408   6.03   2,598,992    13,490,400   2209
Elton Brand    13,731,000    5.27   4,877,400   8,853,600   1732
Thaddeus Young    6,019,089   4.72   1,910,511   7,929,600   1755
Lou Williams   4,166,049    4.1   2,721,951   6,888,000    1682
Jodie Meeks    687,679   3.56   5,293,121    5,980,800    1644
Jrue Holiday   1,401,646    3.31   4,159,154    5,560,800    2196
Evan Turner    3,982,408    2.69       538,792        4,519,200    1713
Spencer Hawes    3,260,580   2.35        687,420    3,948,000    920
Lavoy Allen   381,193    1.58   2,273,207    2,654,400    624
Nik Vucevic    1,324,379    1.45   1,111,621    2,436,000   812
Tony Battie    687,679   0.25       -267,679        420,000    295
Rest of Team   7,418,128    -1.4    -9,770,128    -2,352,000      234

 

The wins produced total is 35.91, The extra .91 wins multiplied by 1,680,000 = 1,528,800 in additional salary that must be subtracted.  Adjusted Total Salaries is 60,328,800 – 1,528,800 = $58,800,000 Analyzing the above calculations we find several interesting points:
 — Andre Iguodala is amazing, he is without doubt one of the best and most dynamic players in the NBA.  There is a reason he is an Olympian and viewed in such high regard by his peers, most notably Lebron and Kobe.  Just like the previous 3 seasons, in 2011-2012, Iguodala was underpaid for his services.  Barring a catastrophic injury, Iguodala will be opting out of his contract in the 2013 off-season and signing a near max deal.
 
 — Jrue Holiday is overplayed by way more than my previous article’s estimation 9 minutes per game, he was the 3rd best PG and 3rd best SG.  He might wanna forget about getting a max contract next off-season.  Right now Holiday is a better SG than PG.
 
– Thaddeus Young’s game is built for the regular season, he needs to be traded yesterday.  Thaddeus really needs to be on a team where he plays the bulk minutes at SF.  Thad is only 6’5.75 without shoes, that is just not big enough to play PF in the NBA.  If Philadelphia has a plan, Thaddeus or Iguodala will not be on the team at the start of the 2013 off-season.
 
– Elton Brand was the 34th most valuable player in the NBA, guarding the other team’s best big while shooting 50%, averaging 7.7 rebounds with a 4:1 ratio of steals, blocks and assists to turnovers really is winning basketball.  Brand was amnestied and the Mavericks just paid $2.1 million for a guy who is worth $9 million next year if he averages 80% of what he did this past season.
– Jodie Meeks is a starting NBA Shooting Guard, not fouling, not turning it over and a TS% of 55 really is valuable at SG.  He isn’t going to be a starter on an NBA champion but he is would’ve been the most productive 2 guard on at least 8 teams this past season.
 
– Speaking of ET, he is the 2nd best PG and 4th best SG, he must really dislike Doug Collins and Holiday and rightly so.  Turner should be the starting PG next year.  His basketball skill set is more suited to being a PG and physically, he would be the most physical PG in the League.
 
– Everyone’s favorite Sweet Lou Williams was the best PG and SG on the team, he was amazing value at 4yr/$21 million.  He could have gotten more from Milwaukee and should have gotten more from the 76ers even if it was for less years.
– Spencer Hawes is going to be really valuable for 30 mpg at center if he stays healthy.  It is a total waste to play Hawes in the front court with a player who is a huge negative on offense (Kwame Brown) because it partially negates one of Hawes’ best skills, passing. 
 
– Lavoy Allen and Vucevic should be playing 25 minutes a night each next year.  Both are NBA bigs, Allen is better right now, but Vucevic is more versatile and equally valuable, because he can play PF/C. In regards to our Free Agent additions of Nick Young, Dorell Wright, Kwame Brown and Royal IveyKwame Brown has been good for 1.77 wins every 1312 minutes in his career.  Those numbers are based on 16mpg in a 82 game season. 

 
Nick Young has produced .6 wins total over the course of his entire career.  That is not a typo, other than shooting 3pters from the corners (where he is top 5 in the NBA at 54%, 57% from the right corner), Nick Young is a huge negative on court presence.
 
Royal Ivey has 205 points, 44 assists, 74 rebounds the last 3 seasons combined, enough said. 
 
Dorell Wright produced nearly 11 wins the past 2 seasons in 4800 minutes, he was a great pick up and super value.  He should be on the court for heavy minutes next year 2011-2012 Most Valuable Regular Season Players by Wins Produced
 1. Lebron 13.45
 2. CP3 11.38
 3. KD 10.21
 4. Tyson Chandler 9.65
 5. KLove 8.87
 6. Joakim Noah 8.62
 7. James Harden 8.43
 8. Andre “Overpayed, Roleplayer” Iguodala 8.03
 9. Blake Griffin 7.8
 10. Ryan Anderson 7.71 List continued

Dwight 7.69, Bynum 7.25, Nash 6.99, Wade 6.8,  Marcin Gortat 6.75, Paul Millsap 6.71, Serge Ibaka 6.7, Pau Gasol 6.56, Greg Monroe 6.51, Ersan illyasova 6.36,  Ty Lawson 6.33, Marc Gasol 6.22, Kawhi Leonard 6.16, DeAndre Jordan 6.09, Mike Conley 5.99, Paul George 5.87, Carlos Boozer 5.8, Pierce 5.72, Garnett 5.71, Rondo 5.7, Kris Humphries 5.66, Jose Calderon 5.45, Roy Hibbert 5.37, Elton Brand (#33) 5.27, Josh Smith 5.24, Jeff Teague 5.19, Gerald Wallace 5.17, Rudy Gay 5.07, Jared Dudley 5.02, Joe Johnson 4.99, Kenneth Faried 4.84, Deng 4.76, Brandon Rush 4.75

This list was calculated the same way as was done with the full 76ers roster.  Skepticism is certainly expected and this list isn’t the be all, end all of wins produced lists.  There should be some very  interesting discussion about readers think about what is right and wrong about all of the above.  It must be pointed out these are based on total production thought the regular season.  Playing time, offensive efficiency and defense are heavily weighed into the Sixers and NBA top 40 list.  One thing that is often overlooked, is that the most undervalued skill in the NBA is staying healthy.


 
 
 

13 Responses to “VALUE OF A WIN”

  1. Mike
    25. July 2012 at 14:11

    Reading your articles convince me that you do not actually watch basketball but rather simply rely on statistics.

  2. Chris
    25. July 2012 at 15:11

    Agree about ET playing point and moving Jrue to the 2. I’m sure everyone on this board has realized the same thing at some point. Jrue is a better defender and he looks like he’s strong enough to handle anyone at the position minus a few older players with strong post moves. Plus ET needs to touch the ball to be effective.

    Iggy is great. Best defensive PER in the entire league last season. Never understood the hate, but also in the crowd of those interested in seeing what the Sixers would be like without him. Who would step up and take the reigns? What type of identity would we have?

    Disagree about Lou Will being the catalyst for that much of the win share. He may have been the only greenlight shooter on the team, so I think that that skews the percentage. Also, we won on defense. We were the best defensive team in the league up until the last few weeks of the season and even after the slide, we were still third best. Lou may not be the worst defender, but when you have Iggy and Brand to make up for your mistakes, you can certainly gamble a lot more.

  3. josh
    25. July 2012 at 15:14

    I believe that statistical and monetary value should NOT be used for grading the sixers roster, and they’re offseason. This is like moneyball, which we all know didn’t quite work. Vucevic is not an NBA caliber center and does not deserve anywhere close to 25 minutes. Nick young will greatly improve next years roster over Jodie Meeks who was too streaky to even consider him an option. The goal is to win a championship yet in this article you seem content to being a 6,7, or an 8 seed again. Everything else I agree with. Yes, brand shouldn’t have been amnestied. Iguodala definitely has star value but he hasn’t shot lights out like Iverson, like Philly hoped he would be. I see improvement from the last article, but still things to improve on, including not making quick judgments on monetary value.

  4. Evan Turner
    25. July 2012 at 16:14

    Really hard to read that chart. The numbers aren’t lined up correctly for every player. Also, the reason Thad doesn’t play SF is because he doesn’t have the skills to do so. He has the size of a SF but not the skills. His shooting, dribbling, passing and perimeter defense would all be below average for a SF. I hope he’s traded as well but I don’t see it happening.

  5. Gary
    25. July 2012 at 16:52

    Wow. Very interesting.
    When I watched every game last year I thought Holiday was playing the PG spot pretty well he was just inconsistent. I would like to see what those numbers would be like in a real season that has practice time for young players like we have.

  6. bzoooty
    25. July 2012 at 17:52

    I just shared some of your results over in the comments at the best Chicago Bulls blog.

    http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-bulls-confidential/2012/07/what-is-the-2014-plan/

    I’d be curious to hear more about the formula you used. In particular, I’m wondering why it seems to value big men more than guards (outside of the obvious top 3). I’m also confused about your comment regarding Jrue Holiday. According to your figures, he’s far from a max player, but he’s still the second-best “value” on the 76ers after Iggy, right? Perhaps I’m missing something because I didn’t read the earlier post that you mention.

  7. jt
    26. July 2012 at 06:18

    How is “Wins Produced” calculated? A stat with no explanation of methodology is useless.

  8. Shawn Furyan
    26. July 2012 at 11:26

    @jt

    If you had typed your question (‘How is “Wins Produced” calculated?’) into google rather than this comment box, the first result would have given you a thorough breakdown of how Wins Produced is calculated. The author uses the metric regularly, and I’m sure wasn’t anticipating making Truhoop’s front page.

  9. Steve Toll
    26. July 2012 at 11:54

    The statistic takes into account all stats in the boxscore, Regularized Adjustred +/-, common opponent production, minutes played and defense. Lastly, as best my model allows, adjustments are made for competitiveness of games. Stats produced during games have different values, for example when you play Charlotte and Miami. A competitive game is more valuable than a competitive game against Charlotte over the long run. In a vacuum, a close win over Charlotte is more valuable than a triple OT loss to Miami. That doesn’t mean the stats in the charlotte game are more valuable, its just means that your team barely beat a team of terrible basketball players. Those stats are less important than against Miami. Simply put, production against good teams/players is more indicative of skill than production against bad teams/players, the competitiveness of those games also factors into the value of production

  10. B
    26. July 2012 at 12:20

    “This is like moneyball, which we all know didn’t quite work.”

    Hmm? The basic concepts of Moneyball have pretty much become standard across MLB at this point…

    “Also, the reason Thad doesn’t play SF is because he doesn’t have the skills to do so. He has the size of a SF but not the skills. His shooting, dribbling, passing and perimeter defense would all be below average for a SF.”

    Completely agree – Thad only works at PF where he creates an offensive mismatch against bigger, slower guys who have to step out on him. Yeah, at PF he gives back in some ways like defense and rebounding, but at least having a mismatch on one end of the floor is better than putting him in a position where he’s struggling on both ends of the floor…

  11. Big Jules
    27. July 2012 at 11:45

    Long suffering 6ers fans (like myself) know that the numbers don’t tell the whole story with Iggy. Yes he’s a premier perimeter defender, and yes he’s always been underappreciated for his contributions outside the box score. But he gives the team next to nothing in the intangibles like leadership and passion, and he’s guaranteed to play lazy offense (i.e. hoisting 3’s instead of driving the paint) and miss clutch free throws (Game #6 of the 1st Rd against the Bulls excluded). We know what Iggy is and isn’t, and he’s not the guy to lead this team beyond the 2nd Rd of the playoffs. It’s time to turn the page with Iggy while his value is at it’s absolute highest. Move him, Thad and Vuc for Bynum or trade him to Houston for White, a lottery pick and Kevin Martin’s expiring deal and let’s get on with the rebuild.

  12. Steve Toll
    27. July 2012 at 11:46

    Shawn Furyan,

    I have seen a previous article of mine make it onto truehoops front page. My model isn’t the best one on the planet. If it was I’d either be making 7+ figures sports betting or be doing everything in my power to make contacts to eventually become a GM of an NBA team. I’ve spent my own time and money, coming up with (and paying) to create a model to properly analyze the NBA. Furthermore, I openly acknowledge the use of advanced stats in my articles and have mentioned various websites that I use as part of coming up with the numbers that are built into my model.

    This article is just food for thought. Whats great about sports is the varying opinions you can get on just one subject. It’s my goal in writing articles, is to provide thought provoking material. Whether I am right or wrong, It is my hope that people will read and discuss what I write about.

    Thanks for reading, and please go look at my other articles and feel free to comment on them. I think you will find they are interesting.

  13. JayJ
    31. July 2012 at 16:52

    I am a bit confused. You say “This list was calculated the same way as was done with the full 76ers roster”, but Iggy’s Wins produced is 6.03 when listed with the entire roster, but 8.03 when listed with the NBA leaders. Am I missing something? Also, maybe you could comment on the difference between Win Shares and Wins Produced. I did some googling on it, and it seems Shares a bit more accepted, but i could be wrong. Last year Iggy was 21st in Win Shares, between Al Jefferson and Tony Parker. This seems to pass the ‘eye test’ a little better. I really liked this article, especially the way you calculated the adjusted salary. I think this is an incredibly useful tool when considering when a player should be signed or let go. I hope the Sixers use something similar.

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