CRUNCHING THE NUMBERS

Value is often a topic that is mentioned in both articles and comments.  There is an approximate possession value in an NBA.  Without getting into specifics like the value of a possession goes down the farther into a quarter you get or that an offensive rebound is more valuable for certain players, I will break down based on averages the offensive performance of the 76er players through 3 games.

The average NBA possession is worth 1.05 points.  Here are some other values:

 Turnovers -1.2 OREB +.985 2pt make +.95 3pt make +1.95 Miss -.7

 This doesn’t take into accounts assists, in parenthesis is each players assist total…

 

Maalik        +11.06 in 69 minutes (17)

SwaggyP   +9.93 in 86 minutes (6)

Holiday      +7.63 in 73 minutes (18)

Kwame      +7 in 32 minutes (1)

Thad         +4.21 in 71 minutes (4)

Lavoy        +3.54 in 83 minutes (2)

D. Wright     +3.03 in 44 minutes (4)

Hawes      +2.73 in 67 minutes (10)

Wilkins      +1.24 in 27 minutes (0)

Royal        +1.49 in 26 minutes (1)

Moultire     -.81 in 40 minutes (0)

JRich        -4.26 in 41 minutes (3)

ET            -11.33 in 89 minutes (10)

What these numbers tell you the approximate value of each player on the offensive end, while it isn’t perfect, it’s the quickest and most efficient way to figure out value without going further down the rabbit hole while sitting at the bar after a game with friends.

I know what you are thinking, “What pray tell is down the rabbit holes?”

 

The first thing is that this doesn’t include assists which is a whole other bag of value.  While that can be seen as negative, it can be positive for some players.  If a guy takes a bad shot instead of passing it to his teammate, that negative is only seen in the bad shot in this chart.  If a guy passes up a good shot to pass and his teammate misses, that isn’t negative for the bad pass.  

From an Expected Value perspective, I could use the shot chart from the game as well as
value of possession chart for time in the quarter (each possession closer to the end of the quarter is less valuable than the one before it)  with a value chart for when the shot was taken in the 24 second clock,  I could then use each players historical
shooting % from that area depending on how near a defender is and I have in my hands an EV to compare against their actual performance

While that seems quite complicated, all it really shows it the Expected

Value of each shot and from there you could compare that to the results for an idea of how the team performed from an EV perspective.  Using game type, you can also adjust for the other teams defense and the negative value of a turnover depending on where on the court it is.  

You can also look at the type of offense and defense being ran and make further valuations to who is on the court and how that changes the value of a certain play.  You can also look at the court and see if it was the best available play based on the circumstances.  You can see if a guy is constantly missing the open man or if he tends to be the guy who passes it with 2 seconds on the shot clock but someone else gets hit with a TO.

There is a ton of stuff to do and then you need to include the value of a double team and then a 2 pass open 3 which is hard to quantify but is valuable.

A player can not score a point but be your best offensive player, it’s all dependent and you can look at tape to see the true value of a players performance.

For instance, In terms of Negative value from most negative to least: Foul on a 3pt shot, Passing lane turnover to a Wing, Out of bounds turnover, blocked shot

I talk about Expected Value and its often referred to as a sports betting term but it can be used in sports and all walks of life.  For instance, it always makes sense to throw a ball towards the hoop at the end of the quarter regardless of the score.  The EV of that shot is extremely low but there is value in the long run and eventually you will reap the benefits of that shot.  There is always variance involved with things like that, but a shot like that is never a negative EV type of thing.  

At some point that game, season or career you are going to see the EV of that toss.  In a previous articles comment section, I asked about the value of a miss.  There are essentially 4 kinds of missed shots: two-point umper, Layup, 3pter, Free Throw.

 By order of value, how would you order these shots in “value of a miss”???

I hope this article shed some light on a different way to view basketball from the readers and I look forward to hearing some answers to the above question

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