11/03/12 5:17 pm EST
Joshua Harris and his crew should just sell this team right now. The recent news of the Jrue Holiday extension and the team picking up Evan Turner’s 4th year option becoming a reality, a feeling of darkness should have begun creeping out like zombies at the Eastern State Penitentary.
This team has absolutely no idea what they are doing and the front office is setting up the fans of the 76ers for many seasons of a Gus Frerotte-like series of head banging concussions without help in sight. Further proof of that is the recent news of the 7-6 hiring analytical expert Aaron Barzilai. Coincidentally, this comes after Dileo and DC spent the offseason lighting the team’s future championship equity on fire and locking the team into a no win salary cap situation.
A day late and a few million dollars short is how to best describe the hiring of the new analytic guy for the 76ers. Most impressive about the whole thing was Barzilai convincing the front office of his ability to help this cap strapped team in the future.
Contractually, Thad, Hawes, Lavoy, Moultrie, Maalik are good value contracts. ET and Jrich are untradeable. Kwame has no Value. Dorell and SwaggyP are both expiring and the extensions for Holiday and potentially Bynum eat up the rest of the cap space. Add in a lack of future draft picks and there is nothing an analytic guy can do in that regard. The rotation is basically set and DC runs that from his head and gut anyway. Here is what Barzilai is going to say, “play ET, SwaggyP and Kwame as little as possible”
The question is, what’s with deciding to have the dog and pony show right now?
Evan Turner’s team option being picked up was a move only a delusional fanbase, front office and ownership group could actually rationalize. Let’s assume that Evan Turner has the season that fellow Philadunkia writer, Jeff Mcmenamin, and many others predict/hope he has. That would be something like 15pts, 5 assists, 400 defensive rebounds per game while having a still subpar but improved True Shooting percentage of 50%, compared to his 2 year average of 48%. Let’s also throw in 2 combined steals and blocks, along with above average defense over 33 minutes per game. That would put ET as a slightly above average NBA player.
What would that fetch on the open market assuming that the team didn’t pick up his option for 2012-2013?
After each of those seasons here is what each player was paid: Thaddeus Young 5 yr 43 million, Ryan Anderson 4yr 32 million and Ersan Ilyasova 5yr 40 million. We can safely presume that Evan Turner would get a 4 year 36 million dollar deal plus incentives.
That is 9 million dollars per season. His contract would pay ET around 8 million dollars that first season.
Assuming that Kwame Brown is traded along with $3,000,000 cash (teams can send up to $3 mil in cash per season in trades according to the new CBA) to a team this offseason with essentially nothing in return and Bynum signs for a max deal, the 76ers would have 2.7 million dollars to use in free agency along with a partial mid level exception and the ability to sign an infinite number of minimum salary deals.
Now subtract the extra 1.2 million that Evan Turner is (hypothetically) being paid because he was resigned for 4yr $36 million this upcoming offseason and that leaves $1.5 million for free agency. That would allow the team to add a player like Marco Bellinelli.
Even if the team magically was able to spend $2.7 million on a free agent, the team would be buying someone on the level of Kwame Brown who will be worth zero in the playoffs to a “Contender” like Philadelphia. What that means is, there is essentially zero difference between paying Evan Turner $6.7 million and up to almost 10 million dollars in 2012-2013 if Evan Turner becomes the player that many hope he becomes. That’s assuming his option wasn’t picked up and he suddenly became a real NBA player of value. Now prepare to have your mind blown…………..
Imagine a world where Evan Turner continues to be the Evan Turner who is not a good NBA player and his team option had not been picked up. The difference between paying him 6.7 million dollars and 0 isn’t 6.7 million dollars. The difference is 6.7 million + 2.7 million for a grand total of $9,400,000 and some change. BOOM. Now think about that.
Someone is likely going to put in the comments, “Well, what if a team offers Evan Turner 9.5 million dollars per season? We lost him for nothing, Troll”
Let me respond, Turner isn’t worth 9.5 million per season even if he has the type of 2012-2013 that was mentioned previously. There is an absurd Bravado with teams and their infatuation with players they drafted as though they are the be all and end all of NBA players. There is free agency every year, there is an NBA draft every year. If a team wants to give ET a deal for an extra 6-10 million over the life of the deal, C’est la vie, he can be replaced. Heck, he could be replaced for 6.7 million dollars next offseason even with the hypothetical season above.
What this team decided is, let’s take all the risk and hope/pray that Turner becomes average this season and if he is bad, screw ourselves out of the opportunity to pay a guy 9.4 million dollars next offseason if Turner doesn’t work out. I’ve known that for months and many readers (and I appreciate all of you, regardless of our differences of opinion) I believe will acknowledge that even coming from me, there is sound logic about that. Unfortunately, it got worse….