QUESTIONABLE MOVES II

Posted by: Steve Toll
11/07/12 9:27 am EST

Jrue Holiday is getting paid $41 million over the next 4 seasons!

As in the 4th best point guard in the division, is going to be paid $41 million over the next 4 years. Holiday is young and has potential (as if he is the only player who does) while playing the least important position in the NBA.  He was outplayed by Lou Williams by every stretch of the imagination last season and his performance in the playoffs was a mirage based on the defense scheme that Boston played allowing Holiday more freedom as long as they handcuffed other players and getting to play 5 games against CJ Watson.  Based on that premise, the team payed him equal to Rajon Rondo, a guy who absolutely abused Jrue that series.  

The list of point guards who were flat out better than Holiday last season was 25+ players and it’s within the realm of possibility that Evan Turner is a super point guard to the new $41,000,000 man.  This article isn’t about bad moves made by other teams especially considering that making less bad moves isn’t exactly noteworthy.

 

Holiday has been below average his entire NBA career but according to fans and the front office, he potentially could become an All-Star point guard in the NBA. Everyone just assumes that Holiday and Turner to a lesser extent are going to get better while everyone in the NBA either gets worse or levels off.  That just isn’t a reality but that seems to be the mentality of the front office and fans of the organization.  Our guys can make a big leap and suddenly becomes All-Stars or above average players and that the other teams’ guys who are already All-Stars and above average are somehow not going to continue their own progression or even better for us, might actually regress.

For all the stats and the like that come from these articles, a lot of work is done actually watching basketball.  Stats don’t tell the whole story, but they can certainly paint an interesting and relatively accurate picture.  There is a reason certain guys are at the top of PER, Win Share and +/- type of lists.  It isn’t an act of god or randomness.  They are good at basketball, they produce on a night to night basis but for a guy like Jrue Holiday, those same stats are somehow completely misleading.  Here is a simple example.  This is the 2011-2012 Point Guard Player Efficiency Rankings for the Eastern Conference only.

There are going to be long list of excuses by all the Holiday fan club members, that is obvious.  The question is, when will reality set in for those same people that a guy who projects to barely be a top 10 Eastern Conference PG, shouldn’t of been paid like a guy who was snubbed from the all star team last year.  Potential, Potential, Potential.  At what point is anyone going to recognize the potential of all the guys who are better than Holiday?  What about the chances that some kid is walking around a college campus and is a better PG than Holiday is right now?

Up next, the entire NBA Assist : Turnover Ratio list from last season   

You will notice that Jrue Holiday comes in at number 38 on the list.  Everyone’s favorite player — Lou Williams — who had an elite season last year but no one wants to acknowledge it, was 5th on the assist : turnover ratio list.  Quick Fact: Lou also had a superior True Shooting %, Higher Usage Rate and Higher Assist%.

Which is a perfect segue into my next point.  Remember when Philadunkia’s home team let Lou Williams walk this off-season instead of paying him 4yrs $21 million?  That looks dumb now.  It is certainly one of the worst moves made by a team up until the start of this season.  The jury is obviously out for fans of the 76ers and worse the organization’s front office, that as much is understood. 

Jrue Rules, Lou Drools.  It doesn’t matter that offensively, Williams is vastly superior while being marginally worse on defense.  Holiday is young and has the potential to be an all-star while Lou, who just turned 26, is on the decline and is a shorter version of SwaggyP.  This article isn’t going to change anyone’s opinion. 

The real tragedy is that Lou isn’t coming back, ET had his player option picked up and Jrue “4th best PG in the Atlantic Division, barely above Raymond Felton who makes less under $14 million this year and the next 3 combined”

Holiday is getting paid $41,000,000.

Quick Side Note: JR Smith was an unrestricted free agent, he makes 5.7 million over the next 2 seasons combined. Could someone explain why SwaggyP is on the team again?

These 2 articles are about the simple and easy decisions that the team had to make this off-season with Lou, Jrue and ET. Resign Lou, let Holiday play out the year (then make a decision on his future) and let ET become a free agent.  The Sixers brass bricked them all in terrible, terrible fashion.

Below I will detail the current situation and what should have been, Both of these scenarios are assuming that Bynum resigns for the max.

Current Scenario for next season: Holiday, Turner and $2.7 million in cap space

Scenario that should have been: Lou Williams 4yr-$24 mil, Holiday-Restricted FA, Turner-Unrestricted FA, = $15 mil+ in cap space.

 Someone explain how the realistic scenario is somehow better than the 1 outlined above.  It can’t be done.  Not rationally.  I am begging for a person to go over those 2 possibilities and tell me WITH REASON AND EXPLANATION that I am somehow wrong.  The front office totally botched these moves, and they did with a sickening amount of Hubris.  After it was all said and done, then they hired the numbers guy.

That is the Hubris portrayed by two guys I wouldn’t trust to run a youth basketball team, let alone an NBA team.  The team just overpaid a restricted free agent while letting a better player go for what would be 60% of the money and also compounded all of that by picking up Turner’s player option for reasons unbeknownst to any sane person.

This point is out of left field but has equal weight to everything that has happened 

I make mention in point 7 of the error of the Hawes signing.  Correct, the team managed to screw that up.  Spencer Hawes for 2 years and 13 million dollars, are you kidding me?  Who negotiated that atrocious deal?  Have you ever watched a 7-foot guy player basketball before?  Don’t you realize that guys of that size don’t peak until their late 20′s?  Why was he signed for only 2 years?   How could you mess that up by only signing him for 2 years?  At least have a team option in year 3 or something, anything but just a 2 year deal.  Hawes is going to leave and be entering his prime.  He was worth 2-13, he was certainly worth 3-20 or 4-28.  What was the rationale there? 

There isn’t going to be room to resign Hawes when his contract expires and he will be entering the prime of his career on another team. For a team that talks about championship aspirations and a proper foundation for the future, paying Holiday 41 million and extending ET for another season while letting the best player of the 3 leave town is a monumental failure especially considering he will make less than both players over the 2 next seasons.  Add in the ridiculous miss on signing Spencer Hawes to a 2 year deal and the team is destined for mediocrity over the next few years.  Fans of the team, prepare for a myriad of disappointing finishes and moves by the front office.  After what has transpired over this past offseason, the direction of this team is heading towards profit for the owners and agony for the fans.  

These moves are also an indicator to Andrew Bynum of the type of direction this team is heading.  I can’t imagine that there is alot of confidence being instilled upon him in regards to actually winning basketball games and as I’ve detailed before the $ thing isn’t the trump card that it is being made out to be.  Bynum is the guy who needs to be kept happy and judging by these moves, it’s not looking good.

It seems so long ago that we heard these words from David Stern, 

“With the 2nd pick in the NBA Draft, the Philadelphia 76ers select, Evan Turner, Point Guard, Ohio State University”


 
 
 

64 Responses to “QUESTIONABLE MOVES II”

  1. the super villain
    7. November 2012 at 10:11

    Letting Lou Williams go in favor of Nick Young is very clearly building for the future.

    The more minute Nick Young plays the more likely we will get a lottery pick this season.

    Or did we trade that away in the Bynum deal?

  2. Adam
    7. November 2012 at 10:16

    Lou williams? Are u kidding me?

    Ugh…

  3. Justin
    7. November 2012 at 10:21

    I don’t care how many numbers are used to portray both Holiday and Lou, but just by watching basketball, there is no way Lou Williams is a better and more effective player in the NBA than Jrue Holiday.

  4. Sloetry
    7. November 2012 at 11:06

    I was never a fan of Lou…too many moments where I thought he took bad shots and didn’t think pass enough, so I didn’t have a problem with him going.
    I lack the knowledge to talk about the money and cap and deep stats, but I agree with Steve that the Jrue and ET signings are a mistake. You can’t keep paying potential and I’ve said before, Jrue shows no PG instinct. One reason why a player like Lin can come into this league unnoticed and perform well is because he has PG instinct. I do think Holiday has great game, I’m just not comfortable with him at the 1.

  5. Ryan
    7. November 2012 at 11:19

    Common Steve.. have you ever listened to any of lous rap songs?! haha. He wants to play in Louwillville anyways..

    Holiday averages one more t.o a game than Lou… The contract is signed so who cares now?..

    I do agree Hawes should have been a little longer deal but maybe because he was coming of injury? Don’t know. I love Hawes.

    I am just ready to see the team they put together with bynum on the floor and the 3pt shooters getting more open looks.. like the Knicks are getting every time the Sixers double team Melo…

  6. Ryan
    7. November 2012 at 11:26

    Steve what we all wanna know is who has the most improved hair this year?

    Hawes

    Bynum

    Swaggy

  7. Jim
    7. November 2012 at 12:32

    The Nick Young signing (a notorious chucker who provides little else) over Lou Williams was a mistake. But that has nothing to do with the Holiday signing.

    The Holiday signing is a good one because given his current production, position, potential, and the number of teams with loads of cap space next year, they got him at a bargain. Utah will have plenty of cap space next year and although they’ll do just fine with Mo Williams, they’d probably prefer to have Jrue. The Bobcats and Hornets could also both use point guards. That means his would have likely received a higher offer on the open market next year – especially if he has the breakout year he should have this year given that he’s going to be handling the ball more often. Also, if Philly doesn’t sign him, then they’re left without a starting point guard or the assets to obtain one that’s better than Jrue. Please don’t tell me you consider Turner to be a point guard. And don’t try to compare Jrue’s contract with Rondo’s contract who is massively underpaid. That’s just foolish.

  8. Laj
    7. November 2012 at 12:32

    Jrue Holiday, a 22 year old PG (yes 22 years old), who is currently averaging 19+ points and 8.7 assists per game was just re-signed for 4 more years at about half the league maximum salary and you are going to tell me that the Sixers are making a terrible move in doing so??? JOE JOHNSON is making $20 million per year and he is 31!

    Once again, Jrue Holiday is Twenty-Two years old. He plays excellent half-court defense and now that Lou Williams and Iguadola are gone he has a chance to really showcase his offensive abilities. Personally I was hoping for a 5 year 55 million dollar contract, but 4 years and 41 million is probably better for both sides.

    Besides the fact that he is one of the brightest young PGs in the NBA, Jrue Holiday is the Sixers ONLY option at PG moving forward. This article is just flat out unfair, both to Jrue Holiday and the Sixers’ management. 4 years and $41 million dollars for a guy who will be 26 at the end of the contract. Where is the RISK??? You don’t think Jrue would have gotten this contract from another team?

    Get real!

    Why and how is this a questionable move? In fact, this was the ONLY move the Sixers could make! Sixers fans should be happy that we have a 22 year old 6’4″ PG who is smart, has a great attitude, and plays very solid defense for the next 4 years. Also, I forgot to mention that Jrue Holiday doesn’t expose his body to the type of contact that Rondo, Rose, or Westbrook endure.

    Questionable? This contract is simply a low risk, medium-high reward contract that should end or be extended when Holiday is in the prime of his career.

  9. James
    7. November 2012 at 12:35

    “He was outplayed by Lou Williams by every stretch of the imagination last season,”

    So after reading that statement I couldn’t help but laugh and stop reading this horrible article. Jrue Holiday is only 22 years old and is a better, smarter, and more clutch player than Lou Williams ever was or will be in almost every facet of the game. I love how some idiot can post an over-reaction article just because the Sixers struggled in two straight games that Jrue tried to carry them in when the rest of the team played like utter garbage on offense and defense. And Jrue is not the fourth best PG in the division, I’ll give you Deron Williams and Rondo, but then who? Nobody on the Knicks is better than him and definitely not the Raptors, so that’s another statement that proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. What a waste of time, I’m sorry I even commented on this crap, the fact that espn posted it on the Sixers page is a disgrace.

  10. freezer
    7. November 2012 at 12:38

    Number one why do you think lou would of signed that same deal in philly. number two jr smith could of made more money somewhere else. number 3 spencer signed that deal because he wants to be free in two years. its called bargaining the deals usually make the most sense to people sitting at the table, this isnt nba live. the jrue deal is easy because holiday has the size,speed,and skill set to develop into a very complete player. i dont understand your infatuation with lou, everyone in the city knows holiday is the guy hes had the job for two years over lou. your such a clown, holiday now is ahead of 22 yr old lou, thats why he got paid. holidays also been playing with handcuffs on like alot of young pgs usually do. think about rondo everyone knew he had the tools but he played with handcuffs in the early going once he was let off the leash he became a superstar. if holiday were walking around a college campus right now he would be projected top 5 pick. the kids a prodigy, and hes played well so far. why do you hate so much?

  11. charlie
    7. November 2012 at 12:44

    Am I being trolled right now?

    Lou isn’t better than Jrue, especially on a team centered around defense.

    Nick Young is the worst though. I died a little on the inside when they signed him. I get flashbacks of Lou’s horrible shot selection when watching him.

    Have you watched Jrue this year btw? small sample size, but he’s good. Israel Gutierrez just wrote a piece on him on ESPN.

  12. Mountain Drew
    7. November 2012 at 12:55

    First of all, it is unfair to compare a contract to the one of Rajon Rondo. His deal is arguably the best in the NBA and he is severely underpaid for his production. JR Smith is also not a good example. He simply did not care about how much money he was paid, because he wanted to stay in NY at all costs. Comparing Smith’s contract to Nick Young’s is kind of funny. Both are chuckers that only look for their own offense, have mental problems (Smith is worse than Swaggy in that regard) and neither one plays any defense. Both have deals that pay them roughly 6 million, the difference is that Nick gets it this season and then it comes of the books, the knicks are stuck with Smith for the next two seasons. I prefer Swaggy’s expiring deal tbh.

    On to Jrue in this division. It is not at all anything to be ashamed of as a 22 year old to be rated lower than Lowry, Rondo and Deron Williams. All three are at least borderline stars, and all are in the prime of their career. It is not something bad that he was “outplayed” by maybe the best defensive Point Guard in the NBA, and especially in the playoffs. If anything, he showed us that he does not break under pressure and that his abilities for a 21 year old (quite a few rookies are older than that when they enter the league) are nothing to laugh at. Think of it like this: if Jrue would have been a rookie this year, how high would he be drafted, looking at the way he produces today? He would be top five in this draft, for sure.

    The PER list you showed, showed me that those stats are not reliable at all. The last time I checked, Jerryd Bayless is not a better PG than Rondo, nor is Stuckey, Ellis or Jennings, for example. You and I also both know that Bayless, Stuckey, Calderon, Farmar, Sessions, Gaines and Walker are all hands down worse players than Jrue, not to mention Teague, Hill and Lucas arguably being worse too. At worst, Jrue would be about 13th on this lists, and he is at least close to breaking the top 10, again, at THE AGE OF 22! You said that he’s not the only one with potential, but by the time Jrue is in entering his prime, Williams, Parker amongst others are leaving theirs, making place for the new generation of PG’s, which Jrue is a part of.

    Just fumbling this in there, but why are you so contradictingly stating that ET might be a better PG than Jrue while you’ve so openly hated on him? I bet your beloved stats would show you that he’s not?

    Let’s move on to Lou vs Jrue. Jrue was the starter and went up against all the good PG’s in the league, they all play at least average defense, but most are good defenders. You should know that young point guards typically struggle with their decision making. Lou played against backup points, who very often play average to awful defense. Even then, he did not shoot a very high percentage and he did not even crack 5 assists per 36 minutes. Are you telling me that a prime Lou Williams for 4 years and only about 4 million dollars a year less is better than a promising young point guard that has better size, and is not a blackhole on offense? Turnover Ratio is not a big stat if you don’t even look to pass a lot. Jrue was asked to run the offense, Lou to shoot as often as possible.

    Spencer Hawes’ deal was perfect. It was a low risk deal for a 7’1 center who played very well before going down with an injury, and sucking ever since. Hawes wanted to stay in Philly and as long as he plays well, i’m sure the sixers will give him a deal after this one is up. You should know that giving a long term deal to a center is dangerous because they get injured easily. I, along with you, am afraid that Bynum gets a career ending injury after signing a long term deal, but for a frachise centerpiece, it is a risk worth taking. Not for a decent role player.

    As far as Bynum’s trust of the organisation, real ballers don’t look at stats, they look around them and I am confident he sees good young pieces that they can build with. But since when are you so concerned about keeping Bynum?

    A little more about Lou, he is not even able to start over Jeff Teague. If Lou can’t even outbattle him for the starting job, you know something is wrong, and that something is Lou not being able to effectively run the offense. Your statement of the PG being the least important position is total ****. The point guard has the ball the most, controls the tempo, distributes shots and is an extension of the coach on the court. I would like you to explain how this is not important.

    Look forward to hearing from you.

  13. Andy
    7. November 2012 at 12:58

    Are you serious dude? Lets look at the sample size of 3 games, yes only 3 games, but what’s the point of analyzing what happened pre-contract extensions if we have data on what is happening now

    ET: 9 PPG 3 AST 8.7 REB and he’s shooting 27%…

    Jrue: 19.7 PPG 8.7 AST 3.7 REG 1.7 STL 4.5 TOPG

    Deron Williams: 18.5 PPG 11 AST 1.5 REB 0.5 STL 4 TOPG

    So…Jrue Holiday is essentially playing as well or if not better as Deron Williams.

    ET is almost averaging a double double while shooting terribly, which won’t continue.

    Even if they level off a bit I think we are still looking at 18 and 7 AST for Jrue and 13 and 7 REB for ET.

  14. mike
    7. November 2012 at 14:27

    ty mountain drew for stating about lou being a back up bc thats exactly what i was guna say if lou williams was such a superior pg to jrue why didnt lou start and jrue come off the bench? not to mention its a stat for ya toll that when iggy was there holiday didnt get to be a distributor as much hence his 5 assists per game but when iggy wasnt playing in the game holiday was averaging 8.7 assists per game which clearly shows that he has the capability to run the offense and im pretty sure lou never had 8 assists in a game let alone at some point in his career average 8 a game

  15. the super villain
    7. November 2012 at 14:34

    I don’t give a crap about stats, but how anyone things Jrue Holiday is a better player than Lou the past two seasons is so crazy.

    I hated Lou for a while, but these past two seasons, it’s very clear.

    Lou has so much more to his game. He is a more dynamic passer. He gets to the basket and line much more. And he is clearly a better jump shooter.

    Jrue is a lil better on D and is bigger, but people hating on Lou Williams is so crazy.

  16. Rob
    7. November 2012 at 15:40

    You seem to forget that players/agents play a part in what deals look like. I’m sure Lou will was given the nick young offer or a two year deal he probably thought he was worth more but eventually settled. As for jrue curry, derozan, Lawson all signed from 4 yr 40-50 mill. Even the most unintelligent person would start his asking price around there, even in comparison to others it’s a fair deal. Back to Lou will for a second if he’s so good why is he playing with hawks? Thank god you are not the coach because we would lose 60 games especially with Thad dribbling the ball and shooting jumpers at the 3. All these role players that stats look so good, the reason is because they don’t play 35 minutes and they play backups. Just because someone can score 12 grab a couple boards and assists in 18 minutes of play does not mean he will average 20 if he started every game.

  17. Rob
    7. November 2012 at 15:51

    To add on to that, your not wrong about turner or anyone really stat wise you break it down to the basic and I admire that because that’s what you have to do be a successful gm; but that being said, when you watch the games you see what jrue can become because when he plays confident he can play with anyone in the league. He’s a 22 year old kid playing basketball against people he probably admired growing up. If you or I were talented enough to play and we were playing against Kobe or durant, lebron, kg, Paul pierce they would already have an edge psychologically. It would take growing up and playing in the league for a couple years. Maybe he’s ready to do that maybe not but his contract was completely acceptable and I commend the owners for what they’ve done. Whether or not you think he will grow into a productive player or not, his skills set thus far is what we paid for anything else is a bonus and he leads this team already there’s no reason to think he won’t get better and better as he matures as a play and person

  18. Doug
    7. November 2012 at 16:45

    “Jrue is the 4th best point guard in the division.” Ok, so what? Cole Hamels is the 3rd best pitcher on his team but is still top ten in the MLB; I’d say the same for Jrue. Oh and with all the other good PGs in the Atlantic wouldn’t you value the defensive abilities of your point guard MORE given that he will have to defend those guys more than anyone else?

    Jrue’s contract simply comes down to supply/demand. If they let Jrue go next off-season what are the chances the Sixers could sign or draft a better PG at a more favorable contract? I’d say non-existent. Were they better off with Andre Miller or Eric Snow before him? No way, but they couldn’t find anybody better. Sometimes you have to overpay for rare assets. At least that’s what I learned in my finance and econ classes after I took freshmen stats.

  19. Lck
    7. November 2012 at 21:03

    Stop commenting. Maybe toll will get fired

  20. Steve Toll
    8. November 2012 at 09:53

    Adam and Justin,
    5000 minutes of sample size says you are both wrong.

    Sloetry,
    Absolutely right. Holiday isn’t close to a top echelon player and doesn’t project to be. Turner is horrid.

    Ryan,
    Is it safe to assume you have the same attitude “who cares now” attitude with guys like Andy Reid and Ryan Howard?

    Jim,
    Their are lots of undervalued NBA players. Overpaying Holiday because other teams might overpay him more is backward logic.
    Jrue is not a championship piece as of right now for this team, but he certainly will be the starter for the next few 1st round losses. If you think that the front office can’t replace Holiday for that $, that is quite an indictment of the front office.

    Laj,
    LOL, 5 years-55 million. That would mean the team could only sign Bynum to a 4 year deal, but I am assuming you weren’t aware of that.

    The only PG option at the moment? The team drafted a PG with the #2 pick in the draft not so long ago. Call it whatever you want, but a 28 year old point guard is still quite young.
    Holiday is a top 20 point guard on a good day. The risk is paying a guy who is average at best 10 million per season.

    James,
    5000 minutes is a decent enough sample size to say Lou > Holiday. Except for scoring, scoring efficiency, creating for himself and others, avoiding turnovers….. Yes, Holiday is better.
    Lowry is the best defensive PG in the NBA and far superior on offense to Holiday, in his first 3 games against: IND, MIN and BKN, Lowry was the best player on the court.
    Holiday just got outplayed by Raymond Felton in a b2b and wasn’t much better (if at all) than Vasquez last night.

  21. Steve Toll
    8. November 2012 at 12:07

    Freezer,
    Considering that SwaggyP is making $700,000 more than Lou this season, I think he could have easily been retained. JR Smith wouldn’t of stayed in New York if he was offered $5,000,000 from the 76ers.l for 1 season. Under the “spencer wants to be a free agent in 2 years” premise, he certainly has more upside than Holiday therefore he should have got 4-41mil
    The reason Holiday played over Lou is because DC isnt a good coach, plain and simple. Rondo was helped by his circumstances with Boston.
    If Holiday was in college right now, he’d be a top 5 pick in your eyes? Ok but he still isnt a top 20 NBA PG.

    Charlie,
    A team centered on Defense has a far greater need for a player like Lou than Jrue. In fact, any team of any style could use Lou>Jrue but its funny you picked that when its the team where Lou would be the most positive compared to Holiday.

    You realize that for the last 5000+ minutes, Lou has been far better than Holiday? Look at TS%, Usage and Assist:Turnover ratio. Its not close.
    Nick Young is terrible, why do you think he was valued at 5.7 million dollars?

    Andy,
    I will not dignify that with a response

    Mike,
    The reason Lou played behind Holiday is because DC is not a good coach, which I have been saying for quite awhile. Please Show me the 8.7 Holiday stat, I don’t think you can produce it.

    Super Villian,
    Are we related or both just total dolts? No way that 2 random people can be as illogical as we!re are. LOL

    Rob,
    Lou is making 700k less than SwaggyP this year. Did you know that? I also don’t agree with most of the extensions given, so comparing them is worthless. Signing a guy to a less bad deal is still bad.

    Everyone who reads knows that I abhor midrange jumpers. As hypothetical coach, I would fine players for taking long 2s except at end of shot clock scenarios for conduct detrimental to the team. If you want to bash my hypothetical coaching, youre gonna need to do better than that.

  22. Rob
    8. November 2012 at 13:34

    Steve toll,
    5000 minutes of stats that everyone has access to and yet Doug Collins didn’t start him, the whole league passed on him in the draft and fa, and the hawks don’t start him either. How can you ignore this? You say all the management is stupid and ineffective across the league, it could be true but how do these people get hired?

  23. Steve Toll
    8. November 2012 at 17:21

    Doug,
    Overpaying for non championship puzzle pieces who are going to be RFAs, is never a good idea with a point guard.
    If you think this team can’t replace an average player for 10 million a year, well you might be right, look how much was spent on SwaggyP and Kwame………seriously, he can Holiday can be placed for cheap.
    The notion that Jrue is a top 10 point guard in the East is possibly correct, calling him top 10 in the NBA is acknowledging extreme homerism and a lack of ability to evaluate players

    Rob,
    “Whether or not you think he will grow into a productive player or not, his skills set thus far is what we paid for”

    Production matters in the NBA, Holiday doesn’t project to even become borderline elite. Maybe he does but it’s quite unlikely given the current landscape of his position.

    DC is not a good coach, he is just less worse then other guys. Most GMs do a terrible job as well. The people doing the hiring are usually old and not very good at assessing who is a good talent evaluator along with being able to properly value assets. Atlanta got a great deal with Lou Williams, Philly got a terrible deal for Holiday. Plain and Simple

  24. Mike
    8. November 2012 at 19:42

    Steve Toll is killing me with this Doug collins is not a good coach thing, what did you expect him to do with this team last year? Win the NBA finals?

  25. Rob
    8. November 2012 at 21:06

    Steve toll,
    Who are the teams that are run well in your opinion, not trying to slight you, trying to see your point of view.

  26. Steve Toll
    8. November 2012 at 21:50

    Mountain Drew,
    Please Read This Slowly………..

    JR Smith is a chucker who doesn’t pass, are you sure? The previous 4 seasons, JR has played 7262 minutes and averaged 1 assist per 10:51 of on court time. The previous 4 seasons, SwaggyP has averaged 1 assist per 25:37 of on court time in 7000 minutes. Last season, Holiday averaged 1 assist per 7:34 of on court time

    JR Smith doesn’t play any defense, are you sure? The last 4 seasons he has consistently held his opponent to a sub 15 per along with having one of the better defensive ratings on his team, every single year.

    JR Smith makes 5.74 million COMBINED the next 2 seasons, is superior to Young in every advanced metric for the past 4 seasons, but you prefer to have SwaggyP’s 1 year deal where he is paid 5.7 million this season alone, is that correct?

    You rag on JR Smith for having “mental problems”, but I’m sure you are willing to give Andrew Bynum the benefit of the doubt. How very arbitrary of you.

    You called Rondo “maybe the best defensive PG” when in reality, he has regressed mightily on defense the past 2 seasons. Holiday is worth 1/2 of what he is getting paid, what does it matter if he was a rookie this year or not? I’d still take Damian Lillard over him in a heartbeat.

    You realize more then a handful of PGs have been draft after Holiday and have already surpassed him? do you expect that trend to stop as well in your projection of Holiday in the “new crop of PGs” because that is very real.

    You review the PER list and proclaim “Holiday is 13th” after you checked it out, that is ONLY the Eastern Conference.

    The reason I said ET could be better at PG, is just like your logic with Jrue being a top 5 pick in this years draft. Turner was the 2nd pick, he must have more upside and was a PG in college or does that not make sense?

    Lou was a black hole on offense, Jrue was meant to run it while Lou was meant to score, are you sure about That?
    He had a higher Assist% last year than Holiday. He has a higher TS% than Holiday, do you even know what that is? It means Lou scored more efficiently than Jrue did and it wasn’t close; 52.5 for Lou and 49.6 for Holiday. Lou had the 5th best assist:turnover ratio, Holiday was 38th. Lou also used a much larger portion of offensive last season while being more effective in every way. He also had to deal with teams game planning against him because he was a far better offensive player than Holiday, but I guess that doesn’t matter either.

    You also state “most good point guards are also good defenders”, which is incorrect. The majority of guards are negative on defense, including Rondo last season.

    As I stated in the article, Lou+15 million in cap space in the 2013 offseason, is far superior to what is currently the future cap situation. Holiday may surpass Lou Williams as a player but its unlikely to happen for at least 2 years, at which point Jrue will be paid 2x while being only marginally better.

    The team won’t have any money to sign Hawes when he is a free agent, and other than a freak Achilles injury last year, had a relatively clean bill of health the previous few seasons. He is at least 2+ years from entering his prime as an NBA player. Hawes has the potential to be far above a role player, the team should have at minimum negotiated in a team option for year 3.

    Real Ballers don’t look at stats? One of Lebrons favorite T-Shirts says “Check my $tat$”
    I don’t care what the organization does, I’m just happy to be able to witness the train wreck at a safe distance from the comfort of my parents windowless basement.
    Bynum can’t be feeling confident at how this team is run, which might not matter if he only cares about $.
    Imagine he has a press conference at the end of the year and says “I want to be on the 76ers the next 5 years but not with DC as the head coach.”
    What would you do in that situation, assuming Bynum had a clean bill of health?

    Jeff Teague is better than Holiday. I can’t control NBA coaches and stop them from doing a subpar job. The same reason Lou is vastly underplayed and overpaid is because of perception and a lack of ability to quantify simple things and get over Ill conceived and unjustified biases against certain players. For instance, your portrayal of JR Smith being similar to Swaggy P and Lou Williams being a black hole but Holiday who is inferior offensively in every way, gets a free pass. Both of which, I have disproved.

    I did a bit of research, Pure Point Guards have made up 4.5% of the top 3 players on the last 22 championship teams. Combo Guards make up something like 20% of the top 3 players on the past 22 championship teams. It is heavily skewed by MJ and Kobe.
    Generally speaking C>PF>SF>SG>PG in importance of NBA players.

    An easier way to explain: hypothetically, You are an NBA GM, but you don’t know what team you are in control of. You have the option to pick 1 only guy: PG,SG,SF,PF,C
    All you know about these 5 guys is they are all 28 and of the same talent level and production based on their respective position.

    What position would you pick first in that scenario? 2nd? 3rd? 4th? 5th?

    I appreciate you reading and your response but you would be much better served doing some research beforehand as evidenced by the fact that everything you said was basically incorrect.

  27. Steve Toll
    9. November 2012 at 00:18

    LCK,
    Keep commenting and if I turn out to be wrong about everything, that will be much more satisfying.

    Mike,
    I don’t expect much of of DC because he isn’t a good coach. If he sent ET to the North Pole as he should have, Philly makes the ECF last season.

    Rob,
    Phoenix, Orlando, Cleveland, Brooklyn are all first class organizations IMO

  28. Rob
    9. November 2012 at 02:31

    Agree almost 100 percent
    Phoenix, three draft picks for a 38 year old Nash is a steal especially when he could have walked. Dragic, Beasley, gortat, Shannon brown all all pretty underrated I think as well.
    Brooklyn,
    Again think your right on here love their bench and hump Lopez and Gerald Wallace are very nice pieces to go along with d-will and joe Johnson(who’s contract is albatross but he’s still a very good player)
    Orlando,
    Despite what people believe this team made out well in the d. Howard trade, no big names but good players especially vuc I would have never traded him. Love their new gm and head coach.
    Cleveland,
    If your talking after James left I would agree, but if your talking before the fact that they couldn’t win a chip is embarrassing, I know lebron has his clutch time woes but if they gave him anything they would have won.
    Let me know what you think about the couple names I mentioned, I don’t know really anything about advanced stats and I’d love to see if they back up my anylasis of those guys.

  29. MountainDrew
    9. November 2012 at 10:12

    And here we… GO.

    For JRSmith, it is so much easier to get assists playing with Steve Novak and Carmelo Anthony. Nick Young played with who… John Wall? Both Smith and Young are horrible passers and always look to shoot first. Smith is just less horrible and had more players to bail him out. As for Holiday, this is exactly the reason why Iggy held him back. Dre handled the ball the most which did not grand a whole lot of opportunities for Jrue. I also think the shortened season was a problem for Jrue. But see what happens now that he has the opportunity to be the primary ballhandler? He is 5th in assists in the NBA, even on a team with struggling shooters. Yes he has a lot of turnovers but that’s because he has to force things because Bynum and JRich are gone.

    Jr smith never guards the opponents best player. He has not an above average defender.

    Yeah, Nick Young is not a good player so of course it’s better to only need to see him play for one season.

    Yes, I do give AB the benefit of the doubt because his talent is worth it. He is a one of a kind player in today’s league.

    Rondo has always been a good defender. It’s just the truth, I don’t care what stats say, I don’t believe defensive efficiency is a way to measure someone’s defensive skills.

    The point of holiday in this rookie class is that he still has the age to be a rookie. He is easily the second best pg of this draft class and you can make a point for him over Lillard.

    I said PER was unreliable, so the list is irrelevant to me. I would take holiday over a lot of eastern conference pg’s.

    Et is not as good as Jrue in anything other than rebounding. Putting him at pg is not going to make his passing skills 10 times better. You dont need stats to see Jrue is the better player.

    Louis can not run an offense. Every sixers fan knows this, Collins knows it and the management knows this. It’s the reason we didn’t want a mediocre guard for multiple years, and 7 million a year. Those contracts dont get you anywhere. Assist/turnover is not a good stat for seeing how good a player rubs the offense. I dont want to look at the list but do you honestly believe Lou is a better passer than Rondo, Nash, CP3, Deron Williams or Irving? It doesn’t mean a thing.

    A lot of guards have a negative rating on defense. Oh really? People will score, so there will naturally be players with a negative rating. Doesn’t mean they’re a bad defender.

    You don’t want long term money in a 7-1 center that is soft, because there will always be a risk for injury. Hawes likes it here and it’s a fair deal. Also, he was only good at the start of last season, after that he played awful. The organization wanted to see what he could still do. Also, Meeks sucked after the break, he couldn’t shoot anymore. It’s why ET replaced him in the playoffs and why he was not resigned.

    Players might look at points, rebounds and assists and stuff, but they do absolutely nothing with advanced analytics. They know it’s still humans and not numbers that make the difference.

    That scenario would not happen. They would probably sign Bynum and fire DC if it would. Still, Bynum likes philly and his situation. I am not worried about AB and DC. DC will involve him in the offense and make sure he gets what he wants. There is too much optimism.

    The reason play players more than others is because they evaluate players from close by, in practice, etc. Have you ever thought about them actually knowing more basketball than you? They know what they are doing, and they have their own system to utilize their players best. Lou was put in ideal position, score against bad defense. He is good at protecting the ball, but is inconsistent and just not a starting point guard on a winning team.

    I would go
    1 C
    2 PG
    3 PF
    4/5 SG/SF

  30. Andy
    9. November 2012 at 14:37

    Steve,

    In another 10 games I bet you will want to respond. Jackass.

  31. Steve Toll
    9. November 2012 at 16:24

    Rob,
    I was actually being sarcastic in my response.
    Phoenix has a cheap owner and should have got rid of Nash years ago, they got nothing of real value for him. Gortat is actually good but he was gifted to them, Dragic can play, otherwise, not much to like if you are a fan of the team.
    Cleveland couldn’t of done much worse when they had Lebron, also Mike Brown
    Orlando traded a top 3 player in Dwight and an All-Star type guy in Ryan Anderson for pretty much nothing.
    Brooklyn is just LOL. Billy King is running the show and they have an abysmal cap situation, one of, if not the worst in NBA history. All so they can get pounded In the first round of the playoffs the next couple years.

    Mountain Drew,
    A 7000 minute same size says your wrong about JR Smith both in passing the ball and defense, if that isn’t enough, nothing will be.
    Holiday also is #1 in Turnovers per game to go with all those assists.
    Bynum is a one of a kind player? That must be why the Lakers traded him after his best season when he was completely healthy for a guy who is years older and just had back surgery.
    Rondo has been declining on defense, it’s a fact.
    So because Lou is mediocre, they didn’t give him 7 million a year? They just paid an inferior player 41 million, good logic though.
    Most guards are negatives on D, get over it.
    You don’t want to give Hawes a longer deal, but you want a head case with knee problems to have a 5 year max. Rightttttttttttt…..
    If you think that good teams don’t go over advanced stuff, please put the booze down and don’t operate heavy machinery. Advanced stats can be shooting charts to show where guys are most effective, most teams should/do give those out.

    Bynum showed up in Lakers gear, and he said the right things the press conference so people like you wouldn’t freak out. I can assure you, he is not happy to be here. DC couldn’t run an offense properly with Nash, MJ, Durant, Malone and Shaq…. What makes you think he can do it with this group?

    Lou is superior to Holiday in every metric but defense, where he is marginally worse.

    The answer to that is : C,PF,SF,SG,PG

    Andy,
    In the immortal words of Harlem based poet, Cam’ron, “you mad”

  32. Jeff McMenamin
    9. November 2012 at 16:45

    MountainDrew,

    First off, I love the Joker reference.

    Secondly I pretty much agreed with everything you said. Especially the points about Lou not being able to run an offense…2009-10 season anyone?

    I would rate PF however as the 2nd most valuable position with PG/SF, and SG going after.

    Steve and I broke down the championships as he said, however we had differing opinions on Chauncey Billups and Tony Parker, he said Ben Wallace and Duncan were more important even though Billups and Parker won Finals MVP.

    SG would actually be #2 going by championships, but take out MJ and Kobe and there’s only 1 championship by D Wade.

    Steve,

    How do you think J.R. Smith is a good defender? Yes, he’s better than SwaggyP, but not a good defender by any means.

    Holiday is off to his best NBA season…besides turnovers. Give the kid a break. Imagine what things will be like when a healthy AB returns??

    Hawes is Hawes. We know his limits at this point. He can’t play D, but he’s an above average shot blocker. He can’t bang down low, but he has a soft touch and decent stroke. He has good passing instincts. He’s not a guy who makes or breaks the Sixers. He’s replaceable.

    I don’t know how you can drill Holiday and Turner so much just 4 games into the season. You’re very biased against certain players (Turner, Holiday, SwaggyP) and very supportive of others (D Wright, Lavoy, Hawes).

    Why aren’t you drilling Lavoy for the way he’s been playing this year? Why aren’t you drilling D. Wright for his inefficient play on offense?

    Holiday is the second best player on the Sixers period. He deserved the money he received, and unlike your boy Iguodala he has shown so far that he’ll do everything he can to win.

    I’ll be the first to admit that Swaggy has looked beyond horrible so far this season, but I still recognize there’s potential there. He has to drive to the rim more, rather than chuck up ill-advised shots. He’s a big/quick guard, but he’s been forcing way too much.

    Besides shooting the ball, Turner has done everything else pretty well. He actually even looked solid shooting in the last game and hopefully that’s all he needed to find a rhythm.

    Bottom line is you shouldn’t be so negative until it’s time to be negative. I was high on Meeks last season at the beginning of the year, until he constantly disappointed towards the middle of the season. I was low on Hawes to start the year, before he played unbelievable basketball in the first month.

    You can’t judge a developing player by his first few seasons, because once he gets comfortable he can show you what he’s capable of. Holiday, Turner, Thad and Bynum will all have career years this year. They’ve been in the league long enough to know their strengths and weakness’s and they’re all hardworking, poised, determined players.

    You probably will just disregard this and say (the stats tell me otherwise), but I’ve watched each of them play very closely and they’ve developed every season. I don’t see why all of a sudden they would stop now while they’re still young.

    -Jeff

  33. Mountain Drew
    9. November 2012 at 17:32

    I think the lakers made a mistake by giving up Bynum for Howard. Howard cant shoot free throws to save his life, the lakers are not even hard to gameplan for now.

    You can give 7 million to a player like lou… But for 1-2 years. Lou demanded 4. He is not a star and his weaknesses are too significant to invest in him like that.

    Jrue can be a star and it is entirely possible that he ends up being bargain.

    I didn’t say they dont use it at all, they use it as reference, but they actually watch the players play in practice and will know strengths and weaknesses.

    As far as I know, DC never coached Durant -.- I’m not old enough to know much about his other coaching jobs, but i know he did bad with mj. DC has done an amazing job the past two seasons and i am confident he will continue. He has learned from his mistakes.

    Bynum might not have had sixers gear yet, but if that is your evidence of not liking philly, that’s just you taking more out of it than what’s in it (not a native speaker, that might not have made sense, my apologies).

  34. Steve Toll
    9. November 2012 at 19:20

    Jeff,

    JR Smith is a good defender. He actually tries and performs. Sorry that defies your eye test but the numbers say differently. Here is an easy way to explain it: How many guys in the NBA who are considered “insane/unstable” are actually bad defenders?!?!?

    Holiday has played ~well. He is taking more 3s which is good, but he still isn’t attacking the rim in an effective manner. His defense has improved but its been off the ball where he has been better.

    There are less Spencer Hawes’ than Jrue Holidays walking around. His upside is higher, irregardless of how painful it is to hear. He also had the best single game performance this season of anyone on the team, which was aided by a relative of Mike Brown known as George Karl.

    Lavoy has been a disappointment.

    Wright has played well from a game theory standpoint on offense, the only thing not happening is the ball going in the hoop. He has taken good shots, passed the ball and actually played defense the first 4 games.

    Explain this statement in more detail please because it is extremely wtf
    “Unlike Iguodala, Holiday has shown so far he’ll do everything he can to win”

    SwaggyP is playing like himself except he isn’t even shooting ok. For example 90 minutes into his 76er career, he receives a pass then makes a pass to Wright who hits a 3 which results in his first assist of the season. The next defensive possession, he non chalantly sags off of JR Smith into open space in a horrid and ill advised attempt at help defense and gives up a wide open 3 when Smith is passed the ball. That is his game, he is also a guy who averages under 2 shots at the rim per game, so don’t get your hopes up in that regard.

    Turner is terrible. If he can avoid turnovers, he might be an effective 9th man.

    In regards to career years: Holiday’s career/best case scenario year will still have him outside of the top 15 point guards. Thad is getting burn at SF, his natural position. Bynum is 0% to have a career year. Turner improving from his first 2 years will still end up with him being terrible.

    You said this “they’ve been in the league long enough to know their strengths and weakness’s and they’re all hardworking, poised, determined players.”

    Is that for some reason not true for everyone else in the NBA or is it just more relevant for the 76ers? If it is the latter, why so?

  35. Jeff McMenamin
    9. November 2012 at 22:24

    Steve,

    Tonight’s box score:

    Evan Turner…25 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists.

    Jrue Holiday…21 points, 14 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 7 turnovers.

    Thaddeus Young…15 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 3 blocks.

    Nick Young…18 min, 10 points, 4-of-9 shooting.

    Sixers are 3-2.

    That’s all I’ve got to say about that.

  36. Rob
    9. November 2012 at 23:33

    Steve toll,
    “Here is an easy way to explain it. How many guys in the nba who are considered insane/unstable are bad defenders?
    Who other than Ron artest are you referring to and what in gods name does that explain.

    As for you not being serious, it’s hard to tell over a computer screen whether or not a post is serious. Factor in the rediculous theories about Lou will being better than jrue and hawes more valuable then holiday and its impossible to tell when you are serious. You keep saying keep commenting but you try and degrade that persons opinion at not one point in part 1 and 2 or in the comments section of both do you even attempt to see the other persons point of view, instead you try and make us look foolish. How is it that you are more knowledgeable about basketball than any of us? More importantly how are you more knowledgeable than Doug Collins and George Carl? You obviously write for a blog so I understand that but what are your other credentials? Did you play? Did you coach? Were you ever any employee with any teams? I ask these questions because you no doubt believe you are right but in my opinion and the whole league and anyone that has been around the game would tell you, you are wrong or off base. I’ll even give you the benefit of the doubt lets assume your correct about everything you have said, have their ever been any analytic gm’s in the league and if so did their “money ball” strategy result in a championship? I only use money ball because I don’t really know what to call your field of expertise, I think analytical basketball but I have no idea, answer that too if you will.

  37. Steve Toll
    10. November 2012 at 00:41

    Mountain Drew,
    LA certainly made the right move trading for Howard. Except for ree throw shooting, he is better than Bynum at everything
    Lou is making 16 million guaranteed the next 3 seasons, that’s it.
    Jrue can be a star, he currently is not, nor does he project to be one in the future.
    Watching game tape is certainly important but having a proper analytical breakdown with tendencies, strengths, weakness and shots charts s extremely valuable.

    Jeff,
    I’m high on Thad, Jrue is playing like a top 20 PG, SwaggyP is still terrible, ET needs to continue playing well, which won’t happen, just look at the shot chart.
    The team should be 0-5. Thank George Karl for playing Koufos and Brewer so much, Austin Rivers for elbowing the Brow and Rondos propensity for passing as to avoid taking close shots, while shooting long jumpers himself for the teams 3 victories.
    It is a long season, I don’t cringe when the team plays well. I want the 76ers to succeed, just like I want to move out of my parents basement. The only difference is that I might actually do it in the next couple years

    Rob,
    I’m sorry that you took my obviously sarcastic comment as serious. When I make very simple observations about bball, and people act in a way that Robert Downey JR in “tropic thunder” would advise against people get upset.

    When someone references “moneyball” it reminds me why it is so easy to stand my ground. Like Cole Trickle once said “Stock cars are meant to be equal, so I only gotta worry about getting beat by other drivers, right?”
    There is a draft, FA and a salary cap. The term “Moneyball” doesn’t apply in basketball.

    I’ve made my statements, they are on record. Feel free to read all of my articles and stuff from the comments sections.

  38. Moose
    10. November 2012 at 05:01

    This is just poor logic, your argument assumes your conclusion is true. You can’t have a conclusion then isolate certain stats or make ones up to prove it. Those are just general suggestions.

  39. hk
    10. November 2012 at 05:57

    Steve,

    I’ll admit that I’m new to advanced basketball statistics, but I am very familiar with them in baseball. When I look at the Hollinger rankings, I see PER, but I also see VA and EWA, both of which are akin to baseball’s WAR or WARP. Can you explain to me why PER trumps VA or EWA as a way to value a player? Thanks.

    hk

  40. MountainDrew
    10. November 2012 at 06:20

    Steve, stats do not project potential. Did you expect Monta Ellis to have his breakout year? Manu Ginobili becoming a star? Jrue is playing awesome, and without a doubt has tons more potential than Hawes. You don’t want Hawes going up against starting centers that have any kind of strength.

  41. LCK
    10. November 2012 at 08:36

    Looks like the damage is done already so i’ll comment.

    Why do you think that Hawes has more upside than Holiday. Holiday is younger and more athletic, and has the tools to be a terrific defender (and it seems like he has been showing them recently). While Hawes is also relatively young, how is it that he has more upside?

  42. LCK
    10. November 2012 at 08:39

    Also, teams lose because they make mistakes. Saying that the Sixers would have won if the opponent did something else different is just plain stupid. I could do that with every lose the Sixers had last year. At least you’re starting to watch the games….

  43. Rob
    10. November 2012 at 11:03

    Right around the questions like usual….ur a joke dude but I’m done.

  44. Steve Toll
    10. November 2012 at 11:46

    LCK,

    I want to know how you know that Holiday is a better athlete than Hawes? What metric do you use to account for the size difference, assuming that you actually have measurements to work off of? Then there is the question of, are size and strength part of athleticism or does that just not count?

    Hawes was better in high school, better in college, a higher draft pick and players of his size have historically shown bigger jumps of improvement through its peak than players with similar measurables as Holiday. Nothing is set in stone and each case is different but it is something of note.

  45. Jim
    10. November 2012 at 13:07

    Steve:

    Thanks for responding , but you’ve missed the point. If Jrue were to hit the open market next year he would without a doubt be offered more than the Sixers extended him for. Curry and lawson received larger contracts and Holiday is just as good as both players. There are too many teams with cap space and some of those teams would love to have a young point guard like Jrue. Because you’re saying that he is now overpaid, you’re basically saying that the Sixers would have been better off letting him hit the open market and letting another team overpay him. Except where would that leave the Sixers? Without a point guard. The only point guard that the Sixers could have realistically signed in free agency in the summer of 2013 that’s comparable to Holiday is Mo Williams. That’s it.

    If you don’t think it’s a good signing then you need to come up with a realistic way to improve the team With the funds that would have been available had they not extended Jrue. Until you do that, you’ve done nothing.

  46. Ryan
    10. November 2012 at 13:12

    Steve you are assuming I like the Eagels and the Phils ..

    Sixers only!!!!

  47. Steve Toll
    10. November 2012 at 16:04

    Moose,
    Please be more specific, as I seem to be wrong about so many things.

    HK,
    If you look at basketball refernce, they have a Win Share total under the advanced statistics of each players page or for the whole team: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2013.html
    It isn’t perfect by any means, but is a relatively useful barometer similar to EWA and VA on the ESPN PER rankings. PER doesn’t trump VA or EWA in a traditional sense. Defensively it isn’t a measuring tool. I’ll use an example from last years team,
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=holidjr01&y1=2012&p2=willilo02&y2=2012

    Almost every person on this site says: Jrue over Lou Williams except that every piece of statistical information available says the opposite and by a good amount. Defensively, Holiday is superior but only marginally.

    To measure a player defensively can only be done by watching games and then being able to quantify what you are seeing into a proper evaluation.

    Jim,
    There is a misconception that Holiday has the potential to be a bigger piece of the championship puzzle than Andre Iguodala was when he signed his extension years ago. Jrue is a fine 2nd-3rd piece on a team that is never going to sniff a championship. Lots of players are overpaid but contextually some are better moves that nothers. It isn’t a reasonable excuse to do the same for our franchise when contextually it is all wrong. The team was closer to a championship at the end of last year then they are right now and the forseeable future, that is my issue.

    Jarrett Jack, Jose Calderon, Devin Harris could all be had this offseason as well.

    Point Guards are rarely if ever important championship pieces, they are complimentary pieces. The team also has a former #2 pick named Evan Turner who is a point guard.

    Mountain Drew,
    Monta Ellis had 1 year where he was good 07-08, he has otherwise been below average. Manu Ginobili has been very good from the first second he stepped on an NBA Court, and started playing at a superstar level very quickly. He was the best player in the world who wasn’t in the NBA before he joined the Spurs, as evidenced by looking here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manu_Gin%C3%B3bili

    Since Emprical Evidence completely disagrees on your assessment of Holiday>Hawes with potential, nothing more to say about that.

    Rob,
    I have made my thoughts and opinions quite clear, my qualifications don’t mean anything. I’ve drawn my line in the sand. Just like how DC knows that jump shots are horrible, yet his teams always lead the league or close, in jump shots per game If you are still reading, if you tell me how you are qualified to judge my qualifications, I might humor you with a response.

    Ryan,
    haaaa, I hear yaaaaaaaa

  48. Lck
    10. November 2012 at 18:42

    Steve,

    I don’t have any actual evidence, but come on. Would you really describe Hawes as athletic? I think he’s a good player, but there is a reason he is more of a jump shooter than post player. He has average strength and speed and vertical FOR CENTERS. Holiday has good speed and quickness for the point guard, and he is bigger and stronger being 6-4 compared to other PGs. I agree that this is a hard thing to measure, and perhaps I made the wrong comparison before.

    I also checked those holiday compared to Williams stats. I’m not a fan of win shares ( I saw the formula), or most of the stats that aren’t averages but rather ones made up by a statistician. Even if I had never seen either of them play and only had those stats to work with, I would go with holiday because holiday had better stats in the playoffs and shot a much better percentage along with the fact that he’s 22, I would probably take him.

    Also you didn’t respond to my response about you saying that the Sixers should be 0-6. I’d like to hear what you think.

  49. Lck
    10. November 2012 at 18:44

    Also holiday was high school player of the year, so exactly how was Hawes better in high school?

  50. Rob
    11. November 2012 at 00:33

    Steve toll,
    I have no qualifications to question your qualifications, I played jv high school ball and wasn’t very good, I also have followed college in the nba for 25+ years. I ask for your qualification because you are portraying yourself to be more knowledgeable at basketball then two men, George Carl and Doug Collins, two men who have made a living and created a legacy’s for themselves. Do you have any stats that prove that you are smarter then them? These are two of the highest respected figures in the game today. Even Kobe respects Doug Collins and his basketball mind, but then I guess he doesn’t know anything either. I asked you for your credentials because I thought the guy bashing Doug and George Carl, who works for a sixers website, would have some. Since you don’t I really have to take anything you say with a grain of salt.
    Next you say Doug Collins had his team shoot long two’s all year and either led the league in long 2′s or were at the top. Have you thought about why this is? Maybe because last years team was offensively challenged. Your boy Lou Williams was really the only one capable of creating his own shot. So they settled for 2′s and it got them within 1 game of the conference finals.

    Humer me if you want too, but how bout we make a deal. If Lou Williams starts a game in the next 2 seasons, not out of injury necessity or guys needing a day off but if he legitimately wins a starting job I will sign my 76ers season tickets over to you. If he does not, u never talk basketball again.

  51. hk
    11. November 2012 at 07:44

    Steve,

    Thanks. This leads me to more questions about the Lou vs. Jrue comparison:

    1. Is there any place in the argument to consider that Lou came off the bench last year (and for most of his career) and presumably played more minutes against lesser (the other team’s bench players) competition?

    2. Do you know of any analysis that shows whether players who average ~20 minutes per game produce better stats per minute than those who play ~35 minutes per game? Or, do you know of any analysis that shows how players who average ~20 minutes per game perform in minutes 21-25, minutes 26-30 and minutes 31-35 in those games when they play more minutes than their average? I would expect the ~20 minutes per game player’s #’s to suffer if he plays extended minutes, but I can’t find anything to quantify it.

    3. Re the Lou vs. Jrue comparison, what’s the value of comparing what Lou did in his age 25 season (his 7th in the league), which happened to be the best season of his career, to what Jrue did in his age 21 season (his 3rd in the league), which was a regression from his sophomore season?

    4. How many Win Shares or what WS/48 would Jrue have to produce during the 4 years of the extension for you to claim he was worth the $41M/4?

    5. Why should anyone really care about the Lou vs. Jrue comparison? The team could (and should) have both of them and not Nick Young on the roster.

    Sorry for the long post and multiple questions. I agree with a lot of your claims, but I’m still trying to wrap my head around whether we can project Jrue to be worth the extension.

    hk

  52. Jim
    11. November 2012 at 11:06

    Steve:

    There’s a reason that Devin Harris and Jarret Jack were traded this past summer. Neither are as good as Jrue. Calderon is a terrible defender. Do you wonder why the Raptors traded a lottery pick to acquire a point guard to replace him?

    In regards to your comment about point guards rarely being important pieces to championships, lets just ignore what Billups did for the Pistons when they won or what Parker has done for the Spurs in their championships.

    Turner may be a good passer, but he’s not a point and he can’t shoot.

    This team has a winning record, losing only to the undefeated Knicks twice and they haven’t play a single game without their best player. If he’s healthy, they are much closer to a championship this year.

    You still haven’t come up with any realistic moves to make the team better if Jrue wasn’t resigned.

  53. Chris H.
    11. November 2012 at 17:20

    Maybe we should take this in another direction. Steve, the Sixers have been STUCK in mediocrity for the last 10. With Iggy, Lou, Brand, Meeks, Jrue, ET, Thad, and Hawes as the core for the last 2-3 years (maybe not necessarily Meeks and Hawes the entire time) the team was STILL mediocre. Please tell me what moves…if any…you would have made, besides trade away ET obviously? And let’s be realistic about the moves :)
    A fan like myself got tired of seeing the Sixers continously spin their wheels and seemingly not even try to change. That is, believe it or not, the reason for optimism for some of us. That previous team needed to be blown up, for better or worse, unless we were happy being the consumate 7th/8th seed. I’m not going to compare players statistically, but I will say that you seemingly remind me of Andy Reid in defining insanity. I am sorry to say, but we weren’t going anywhere with last year’s team. I don’t think that this year’s team is winning an NBA championship, but I think that they are a much more well-rounded team…which we won’t be able to realistically compare until game 66…or 82. So far the 76ers are 4-2 same as last year.

  54. jawn
    11. November 2012 at 23:14

    lou >jrue? hahahahaha
    lou scores bec hes matched up against 2nd unit guys. hes an offensive black hole

  55. Steve Toll
    12. November 2012 at 12:02

    Chris H,

    I would very much of liked to seen Holiday traded (sign and trade for Ryan Anderson, would have made alot of sense. Toronto likely gives up the 8th pick for Holiday. New Orleans would probably of given its 2013 lotto pick) so that ET could have a chance to be the PG, his NBA position.
    The team owes itself a season of Turner at PG.

    Speaking of Holiday+Iggy+Brand+Vuc+15th pick+2013 1st rd pick for Dwight Howard+RAnderson+JRich+Duhon+QRich, gets done in a heartbeat.

    Dwight+ET+Lou+Thad+Jrich+Dorell+Hawes+Lavoy+Meeks+Duhon+QRich would be my preference over the current team, in a totally hypothetical but realistic scenario

    Lou should have been retained.

    Neither SwaggyP or Kwame were worth signing, except for tanking which was exactly what the team was aiming for this season.

    Under no circumstances should J-Rich been taken as part of the Bynum deal. It literally should have been a No deal as constructed.

    Getting Dorell Wright was a move that I applauded as soon as it happened. There isn’t a reason in the world that he was had for so little and I commend the team for picking him up for what amounts to nothing.

  56. Sam
    12. November 2012 at 12:59

    Steve,

    My favorite part is how you say a center is the most important position in basketball, but still chastise the sixers for trading iggy for by almost all accounts the second best center in the league….

    Also for all the negatives you point out about jrue’s game and how he’s averaging an insane amount of turnovers (which is true), you have failed to recognize that your boy Lou is shooting 35% from the field this year and 29% from 3. Now that’s based on a small sample size, but so are Holiday’s turnovers.

    By the way, this season’s assist to turnover ratios

    Lou- 1.5454
    Jrue- 1.6667

    Jrue has a better ratio even while having to orchestrate an offense for almost 40 mins a game.

  57. Lck
    12. November 2012 at 21:24

    Guys I think toll isn’t responding to some of our posts because he knows we are right, and can’t find a way to troll

  58. Rob
    12. November 2012 at 23:29

    Also I don’t know how you never put it together that hawes, lavoy, kwame, and turners contracts all expire after next season. That’s about 20 million in cap coming off the books. Teams will want those 1 year contracts next year so we have trade bait as well.

  59. Steve Toll
    13. November 2012 at 01:10

    LCK,

    Both Hawes and Holiday were the Gatorade POY in their home state. Hawes was considered a better prospect by every recruiting service. You can also find measurements and draft combine results at Draft Express.

    You are straight up lying when saying just look at the numbers you’d pick Holiday > Lou.

    As for the 76ers record, Variance. Last years team should have won 41+ games. Variance.

    Rob,
    Knowing what to do and doing it are completely different things. For instance, against Mil, the 76ers missed 2 opportunities at a 2 for 1. That is just 1 of many things that DC misses out on. Over the course of the season that shorts the team a ton of possessions.

    You reference Kobe who chucked his team out of contention last season while he should have known better and wanted an offense instilled this year by a dimwit because he didn’t want Nash to Nash it up.

    Will you pay for the tickets as well, if so, for how long?

    HK,
    1. No. Last year is more important than 2 years ago. It’s also a fallacy to act like other teams were unaware of Lou’s abilities and didn’t game plan for him. He was on the court at the end many quarters, that wasnt a coincidence
    2. Good players play well regardless of their minute distribution, there are other factors involved but it’s actually pretty straight forward
    3. They are both in the NBA NOW and project to be the next 4 years as well
    4. Holiday needs to be moved to SG, he is a combo guard more SG than PG. It will be interesting to see if someone on the 76ers figures that out.
    5. It’s just a conversation piece. Holiday and Lou would have been a super dynamic backcourt and only taken up 25% of the projected cap the next few seasons.

    I appreciate the questions and interest keep em’ coming

    Jim,
    The Holiday signing makes way more sense with Lou on the team. Variance is a big reason for the early season success. Jack and Harris were better than Holiday last season. Harris was traded for a superior player and Jack was traded for reasons that I can’t explain, none of which would be good anyway.

    Parker was 3rd man on the Spurs and his best finals was playing against Mo “Ole!” Williams. Manu and Duncan were more important than he was.

    Look at the Detroit-LAL series. Notice that Billups had the easiest matchup that series. Payton and Fisher were a combo of hurt and not good.

    Jawn,
    That is your opinion

    Sam,
    Expert insight. If I ever move out of my parents basement, you and me should become roommates, we would change the game.

    Rob,
    Wow, I totally missed out on that, butnahhhhhhhhhhhh. Unfortunately, everyone else in the NBA knows they are expiring too. What value do you hope to get in return for those guys? Hawes is the only one of real value and it would be close to impossible to get value for shipping him out.
    Kwame sucks, Lavoy has the yips, and Turner is horrible. The team could probably get back a bad contract and a mid-late round pick.

    Even if those guys expire and leave: The team will have $10,000,000 to surround: Holiday, Thad, Jrich, Moultrie, whomever they sign this offseason, whether its Bynum or other guys and a potential lotto pick this season

  60. Rob
    13. November 2012 at 23:48

    Steve toll,
    Okay I give in your completely right Lou is eons ahead of jrue in everything but defense, and only marginally. I ask one question…. Why did he not start last year or now?

  61. Lck
    14. November 2012 at 17:06

    Did you even LOOK at the playoff stats. It’s reasons like this that I want everyone to stop commenting on your articles so that you get fired, even though I know it will never happen.

  62. Steve Toll
    16. November 2012 at 00:55

    Rob,

    It’s one if the many things that DC and Larry Drew have failed at as head coaches, it’s pretty simple.

    LCK,

    Variance? There are thousands of minutes where Lou was far superior………. Nick Young made a lot of baskets in the playoffs last year…… You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you’ll find, you get what need, but in this instance you won’t

  63. hk
    19. November 2012 at 06:07

    Steve,

    Thanks again for your answer and for continuing the dialogue. Of course I understand your, “They are both in the NBA NOW and project to be the next 4 years as well” answer to my question about why would you compare Lou’s 7th season to Jrue’s 3rd. The point I was trying (but failed to) address in the question is one of projection and expected improvement. By now, don’t we have to assume that Lou doesn’t have much nearly as much room for improvement as Jrue? If Jrue’s career shows a similar trajectory to Lou’s, should we expect Jrue’s 4th through 7th seasons to be significantly better than Lou’s 8th through 11th seasons?

    Again, all of this is asked in the realm of completely understanding that they should have re-signed Lou instead of signing Nick Young. I am just still not convinced that Jrue won’t turn into a player worthy of $10M per year.

  64. Andy
    26. November 2012 at 09:28

    Steve,

    Please explain your method of analyzing your stats. Clearly there is error in regards to your results.

    Regards,
    Andy

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