DEFENDING THE EXTENSION

Posted by: Hank Allingham
11/20/12 9:17 am EST

As fellow Philadunkia writer Steve Toll will tell you, the 4 year, $41 million extension given to Jrue Holiday was met with mixed feelings from fans of the 76ers.  First, let’s agree that $41 million is certainly a lot of money to guarantee a player that has only one season under his belt with a PER higher than the league average of 15. 

However, because Jrue is in the middle of his fourth NBA season, it is often overlooked that he is still just 22 years old, meaning jumps in both productivity and efficiency are not only possible, they are likely.  Combine this with the fact that at least a dozen teams will have enough cap space to add a max contract this off-season, and it’s safe to say that Jrue would’ve gotten a larger offer as a restricted free agent than he signed with the 76ers. 

Thus, if the team had let Jrue enter restricted free agency, which some argue they should have, they would have two options: Let him walk to another team, or pay him at a higher level than they locked him up for now.

 

 

While $41 million is a hefty sum of money, Jrue has proven his worth so far this year.  In this young season Jrue’s usage rate has increased by over 25%, bringing a dramatic increase in true shooting % and PER along with it.  To put his numbers in perspective, let’s compare his stats to another 22 year old point guard:

 Holiday: 19.1 PPG, .546 TS%, 43.0 Assist %, 23.0 Turnover %, 18.02 PER

Player #2:  19.3 PPG, .565 TS%, 29.5 Assist %, 16.8 TO %, 18.5 PER

For those curious, player #2 is Damian Lillard, the current frontrunner for Rookie of the Year honors.   While Lillard is earning rave reviews about his play thus far in his career, it should be noted that Holiday is playing comparable basketball, at the same age as Lillard. 

In addition to the impressive offensive numbers, Jrue has held opposing point guards to a meager 12.8 PER and has already faced Rajon Rondo, Brandon Jennings, a rejuvenated Raymond Felton, and Ty Lawson.  These stats do not include his latest performance in which he thoroughly outplayed Kyrie Irving, holding him to 9 points on 4-14 shooting with 5 turnovers (Yeah, yeah…broken finger noted.).  Throw in Holiday’s consistently impressive (even more so considering his age) playoff numbers (17.8 Career playoff PER) and Jrue has proven himself to be worthy of the $41 million extension he was given. 

While his turnovers have been a concern for all of us here at Philadunkia, it should be noted that Holiday is in good company on that issue.  James Harden, Irving, Kevin Durant, Deron Williams and Rondo sit right behind Holiday on the turnovers per game leader list.  Still, continuing to be aggressive while learning to limit his mistakes and thus removing himself from the above list will be crucial for Jrue as he takes the step to that highly sought after “next level”. 

As Holiday learns to limit his turnovers (and he will under DC) while continuing to play at a very high level, 76ers fans should be excited to realize they have this 22-year old kid locked up for the next four seasons.

 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 

22 Responses to “DEFENDING THE EXTENSION”

  1. Jim
    20. November 2012 at 09:45

    I’ve defended this extension since day one, bad contracts are given out all over the league, and as long as teams will give a ton of money to the Demar Derozans of the the world, some team will overpay Holiday. The kid is 22, is great at on ball D, and is finally taking that next step we’ve wanted to see since his UCLA days..OK so his TOs and pick and roll D leave something to be desired. So what? How long did it take LeBron to complete his game? 9 years? I think Holiday will easily be a top 5 pg in 4-5 years, the key will be the Sixers management surrounding him with other all star players so we can actually make a run by that point.

  2. bailey high
    20. November 2012 at 09:50

    why are you bashing jrue?? he is the only reason that they are 6-4 and I know the turnovers are a problem but he is still having his best season of his carrer

  3. steve
    20. November 2012 at 10:48

    waiting for the obligatory negative comments from Mr. Toll regarding Jrue….

  4. Slap Dog Hoops
    20. November 2012 at 11:02

    I fully agree with you. In NBA terms, 41$ million is not a lot of money, especially for paying an up and coming elite player such as Holiday. And he has certainly shown that he deserves it from his play thus far. He filled in the void of Andre Igoudala quite handily leading the Sixers in points and assists per game. And at just four years, the Sixers have a decent tradeable contract just in case things turn south. So therefore, both parties win.

  5. Jim
    20. November 2012 at 12:29

    Well done by noting that if the Sixers didn’t extend him now they would have either had to pay him more in the offseason or let him walk. And if they let him walk, the question then becomes if they can replace him with a player who is just is good now and has as much upside for less than the Sixers paid to extend him. Steve Toll has yet to comment on that because there’s no chance they could.

  6. Steve Toll
    20. November 2012 at 13:53

    Jim,
    Who do you project to be the other top 4 PGs along with Holiday in the next 5 years?
    Do you believe the front office has the ability to surround Jrue with multiple All-Stars over the next few seasons based?

    BaileyHigh,
    Hank is defending the Holiday signing. I’m bashing the team, not Jrue, for signing a player for 2x a superior player and forcing him to play out of position (something I will be writing about very shortly)

    Steve,
    Lou > Jrue
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=holidjr01&y1=2013&p2=willilo02&y2=2013

    Slap Dog Hoops,
    1/6th of the cap, is in fact a lot of money. Holiday isn’t elite and has not shown that he deserves the money, check the above link. He is not a filler for Iguodala, he is a far inferior player.
    The contract is bad in the only sense that is relevant. Holiday is a 4th man on a championship team and the team let a better player leave this offseason for LITERALLY 1/2 of what they paid Holiday.
    A Lou-Jrue backcourt would have been ultra dynamic and only taken up 25% of the cap

  7. Steve Toll
    20. November 2012 at 14:17

    Jim,
    You think the Bulls would have had to pay D-Rose as much this offseason if they didn’t extend him last year? They would have got him for alot less.
    Who is to say what Jrue would have got on the open market?

    PG isn’t an important position in winning an NBA title and there are lots of serviceable points guards who will be available next season. Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Devin Harris, DJ Augustin to name a few.
    Evan Turner, a PG, is also on this team and was drafted with the #2 pick in the draft a few seasons ago.

    The team let a superior player leave for 1/2 the money this offseason, that is a relevant fact.

    I’ll take one of the above players for 5ish million+Cap Space > Holiday

    You try to make this point about who we could get that would be better than Holiday, answer me this…………..

    Who is the team gonna get that is superior to Lou Will for 4/21 with the 4th year being a team option?????????

  8. LCK
    20. November 2012 at 14:47

    Steve,

    I know this isn’t related to an article or anythin, but you are awful at answering question. I think its great that you take time to answer them, but you never answer the most essential part of a question. Like when I asked a question a while ago, i briefly mentioned someone you dislike, and you decided to bash him and show me useless stats to back up something I did not ask for, and I got no answer to my original question. I think its just because this is all an act, and you couldn’t find a way to fake it. But then again, you did once say….. I was gonna repeat one of your claims, but I know you’ll focus on that instead.

  9. MattSg
    20. November 2012 at 15:10

    Jrue is the sh******t!

  10. MountainDrew
    20. November 2012 at 16:26

    Steve, your Lou vs Jrue numbers indicate Jrue is better. Not sure what you are trying to prove with it. It is pointless for me to make the same arguments I did last time, but this was a good investment in a young player that even already seems to be worth the cash today, but the contract will begin to count next season. Who knows how good he is by then!

    No matter how good his turnover ratio and other advanced stuff is, Lou has never been able to run the offense on a winning team. He also can not take the starting spot from Jeff Teague. Steve, this is where you make mistakes, and it is where your stats do not work! Everyone knows that the Jrue extension AND not signing Lou were the right moves for the future and even the present, yet you refuse to accept the fact that the team made the right moves and invested right.

  11. Steve Toll
    20. November 2012 at 17:58

    MountainDrew,

    It is almost always incorrect to sign a restricted free agent early.

    The numbers are 100000000% in favor of Sweet Lou and Teague is better than Holiday anyway. Holiday is a better SG than Teague but they play PG and its not even close.

    LCK,
    GK is and continues to be bad. I am not going to try and qualify myself to you. As the season continues my writing will continue to do that for me. I have the utmost confidence in my basketball mind and as of right now, I feel good about my thoughts and opinions. Sorry that I don’t always answer questions in a way that you deem appropriate but I generally answer quite directly. It’s a favorite past time of yours to ask me if I have a degree of some kind, that is totally irrelevant, so I don’t respond.

    If I told you that I went to Undergrad at Indiana University where I majored in Journalism with a minor is Statistics, then got my J.D/M.B.A from the University of Kentucky, How would that change your view on my writing?

  12. Rob
    20. November 2012 at 23:25

    Steve toll
    You really don’t think a team would have given d rose the max this year because of his injury? Are you kidding me he was the MVP 2 years ago.

    Good article hank agree 100%. To me, holiday has more than exceeded expectations and I’m excited about his future with us.

  13. Hank
    21. November 2012 at 00:25

    Steve

    Rob hit the nail on the head. If you think that Rose wouldn’t have gotten a max offer this offseason you’re either being stubborn or you know a lot less about the how the NBA works than I thought you did. Eric Gordon was a certainty to get a max offer last summer, and he was a bigger injury risk and less talented than Rose. If Chicago wanted Rose to stay, they were paying him the max regardless.

    On to Lou. I disagree with many of the commenters here. If we could have Lou for what the Hawks are paying him, he’s a no brainer. He is a legit offensive talent; Steve is absolutely right there. However, Steve, what I think you’re downplaying here are Lou’s shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball. There’s a reason why he has never played more than 30 minutes a game (his max was 29.9 for a Sixers team that finished 27-55, not exactly a powerhouse.) This year, he is allowing the backup point guards he is defending to help themselves to an above average PER, while Jrue is holding starting point guards (notables named in the article) to a PER of ~12. Again, this isn’t advocating the Sixers letting Lou walk in any way. Jrue and Lou would have been a seriously formidable backcourt offensively. I’m simply arguing that the signing of Jrue Holiday was a good signing, and will soon be seen as a team friendly deal for us.

  14. Jim
    21. November 2012 at 01:51

    Steve: You have no idea how the NBA market works if you don’t think that Rose would have been given the max if they didn’t extend him last year. There are a ton of teams with max cap space this coming offseason, this is a star driven league, and Rose is a star. It’s that simple. Eric Gordon got the max despite knee problems and he’s not as good as Rose.

    Those servicable point guards you mentioned are going to be available for a reason. They’re not that great. The only one that is decent is Calderon and Toronto thought so much of him that they gave up a lottery pick to acquire a point guard to replace him. The other three you mentioned are all backups and have been recently traded. If you think those guys are just as good, then you’re a poor talent evaluator. Then you have to be specific with who the Sixers should get with the $5 million cap space they would get by letting Jrue go.

    Turner can certainly run the point, but he’s not a point guard.

    Lou Wiiliams is not better player than Jrue unless you ignore the defensive side of the ball. If you want to argue that they should have resigned Lou over Nick Young, I’ll back you on that one. But this isn’t a debate of Jrue vs Lou.

    Teague is a point guard and Holiday is a shooting guard? Huh? Pretty impressive that the shooting guard is averaging over 8 assists a game.

  15. Lck
    21. November 2012 at 07:31

    It makes me realize that you are in no position to criticize a coach. Sure you know your stats, but I’d much rather have coach Karl coach my team than you.

  16. lck
    21. November 2012 at 08:13

    It also gives you a little more credibility, but really not much.

  17. Fu
    21. November 2012 at 10:30

    Steve,

    This is not the first time I read you stating that pg is not important to a team. Could you please explain and – needless to say – back up your thought.

    Overall, how would you rate each position’s importance to a team?

    Thanks

  18. Steve Toll
    21. November 2012 at 23:18

    Let me explain the Rose extension point: There is a 0% chance that Derrick Rose would SIGN a max contract with the Bulls this past offseason with the injury. He just signed a deal with Reebok for $250,000,000. He doesn’t need to worry about $.

    In a totally hypothetical scenario and Without being totally sure about the CBA.
    Rose could have left the association this off season and entered again in 2013-2014 in which Chicago could still have owned his rights as a restricted free agent. Under that premise, the team could have retained Asik, Korver, and a personal favorite of mine, Ronnie Brewer with room to spare this past offseason. He would not of signed with the Bulls this offseason. Coming backing in 13-14 he could sign a max deal and the Bulls would have massive title equity.

    As the Bulls are corrently constructed they are not going to compete for a championship. Derrick Rose wants to win championships. Even though the above scenario is unlikely to happen, signing a max this offseason absolutely torpedoes the teams championship hopes going forward. It’s very likely that he takes less money with the understanding that it will help to win a championship, which Rose has said time and time again is what he cares about. He just signed a $250,000,000 Nike Deal and Projects to make another $200,000,000 MINIMUM over the course of his NBA career unless his knees totally fall apart, which seems unlikely.

    This isn’t about what Rose could get on the open market. This is about Rose being a Chicago kid who would take less because of the injury in the hopes of winning NBA Championships. It’s very possible he would have demanded the MAX anyway but that would be up to him and a serious mistake.

    For instance, you think that Westbrook and Durant wish they took a few less million right now???

  19. PG
    23. November 2012 at 11:24

    Steve,

    You know basketball isn’t in a vacuum. Numbers and statistics can be misleading. They often lead to incomplete comparisons in the NBA. I like sweet lou, but watching him lead the team would give me cancer.

  20. Rob
    24. November 2012 at 00:02

    Steve toll,
    You are an absolute idiot… Rose leaves the association and comes back? Hypothetical or not how does that bull even prove ur point. You lose less credibility with every word.

  21. Jim
    24. November 2012 at 22:00

    Steve: I’m wondering why Rose is in Adidas commercials when he signed such large deals with both Reebok and Nike. You lose credibility when you fail to do basic research.

    None of the superstars currently in the league need to worry about money, but that doesn’t mean they would sign for less the way that Lebron, Wade, and Bosh did. Kobe claims to be all about championships and to my knowledge he’s never taken less than he could have received. I doubt that Durant or Westbrook wish they took less money (Westbrook would have actually qualified for the Rose Rule btw). They probably wish that Harden accepted the offer or the owner was willing to let Presti offer Harden the max though.

  22. Rob
    26. November 2012 at 14:37

    Steve toll,
    Can u still say Lou is better than jrue. 32 and 13 last night. You were right, how could we all see upside in this kid he stinks right.

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