QUARTER POLE REVIEW

Posted by: Steve Toll
12/10/12 10:47 am EST

For all you 76er or Pulp Fiction fans who ended up on Philadunkia, this is a 76ers quarterly review.  

The team has had some ups and downs, that is for sure.  As for this team being superior to last year’s team, that idea we can quite honestly throw out the window, with or without Bynum.  Variance is a word that I often use.  This year’s team has so far outperformed its expected Win-Loss record by 3 wins.  

Conversely, last year’s team underperformed on its Win-Loss record by at minimum six games.  Think about that for a second.  Some things have turned out for the better and some for the worse.

On the other side of the jump, will be my evaluation (of sorts) of the 76ers after 20 games in the 2012-13 season.

Thad is unquestionably the 76ers best player.  He is good on both ends of the court and brings it on a nightly basis.  Giving up some combination of size and strength every night is both physically and emotionally taxing.  That being said, it’s going to be very tough to win a playoff series with 35 minutes of Thaddeus Young at PF.  That isn’t an indictment of Thad, it’s just a reality at this point and going forward.  I look forward to the day when he is allowed to start shooting 3’s again.

Rondo outplayed Jrue over the first 3 meetings of this season as did Raymond Felton, with a splash of Jason Kidd in the early back-to-back.  In the first Toronto game, minus Lowry, Jose Calderon by far got the best of his match-up against Jrue.  The next time Philly faced Toronto, Kyle Lowry made a surprising return to the lineup and the combo of Lowry-Calderon outpaced Jrue for most of the game. After two games against Toronto, Calderon gets the win against Jrue.

The games against Ty Lawson, Greives Vasquez, Kemba Walker were good old fashion stalemates, Lowry falls under this category as well.  Jrue destroyed Dragic, Mo Williams/Randy Foye, Dominique Jones and Kirk Hinrich/Nate Robinson.  The Dragic game was the best of his career, and one I certainly didn’t see coming as I predicted a polar opposite after the previous game……..

Which leads me to this point, Holiday got absolutely worked by Westbrook, Jennings, Brandon Knight, Jeremy Pargo and Ridnour-Barea.  Darren Collison outdid Holiday too but not in the manner of the aforementioned players.

In the first Cleveland game, Holiday put on a masterful defensive performance.  Which was seriously downgraded the next day when Kyrie Irving was diagnosed with a broken finger (from the game against Dallas the night before) and listed as out for a month.

 Here is a link that helps to make my point

If you check out WS48, Holiday is a distant 6th out of the point guards in the Atlantic Division (Jason Kidd is sporting a robust .230 WS48, and Sweet Lou has .172 WS48 which is 2x Holiday) and while it isn’t perfect, there is something to it.  For instance, Holiday is producing 5/6 the WS48 of Calderon and the Raptors have only won 4 games this year.  The top 6 guys in the NBA in WS48 are Durant, Lebron, CP3, Kobe, Duncan and Tyson Chandler, there is a reason they are at the top.  Just like there is a reason that Holiday is where he is.  When you only truly outplay 1 good player over the course of a game in 20 games, at what point will people stop deluding themselves into thinking that Jrue is elite or close to it?  

Evan Turner is still not good, just less terrible as of right now.  Defensively, I do trust DC and he has certainly shown that he doesn’t view ET in high esteem on that end of the floor.  Offensively, Turner is shooting an absurd 48% from 10-15 feet and 45% from 3.  After being a career 40% and 28% from those 2 spots coming into the season, a regression to the mean is inevitable.  48% from 10-15 is prime Nash and Dirk territory as for his 3pt shooting…… I’ll give credit where it’s due, all but 7 of his 3pt attempts (ET is 3-7 on non corner 3s) have been from the corner and more often than not it is a wide open shot and he has been sticking ‘em.  

The reality is ET has a 50.5 TS%, at his apex of shooting efficiency, is maybe an average defender, doesn’t get offensive rebounds (the true test of a good rebounder) has kept his turnovers down and has shown to be adept at creating for others.  He isn’t D-League, he is an 8th man but that’s under the condition his 2 hot spots, stay hot.

Jason Richardson has been the teams second best player.  He has returned to form and then some from a few seasons ago.  In the best interest of the franchise, I really hope he is traded to a team like Utah, Chicago or Denver, who could all really use him and just get the cap space going forward by taking in Raja Bell, Rip Hamilton or shipping $3,000,000 to Denver and J-Rich just being absorbed by their massive $13mil trade exception from the Nene-Mcgee Deal.  Richardson has played admirably so far but all I see is a guy who is hurting the 76ers future title equity by lowering the teams lottery odds on a night basis.

Nick Young is EXACTLY what I said he was.  Dorell Wright has been a major disappointment on the offensive end, defensively he has been fine.  Kwame is all sorts of bad, I’d suggest he go play in Europeland but I doubt the guy has a passport and I don’t think any Euro team would help him get one either.  At least, Dorell was free and is more than likely to bounce back to the form he has shown the past few years. 

Lavoy has gotten over his early season struggles and is starting to play with confidence, why o’ why didn’t the front office give him more than a 2 year contract.

Spencer has been a major disappointment.  The only redeeming factor is that he was the best player on the court in the Denver game and his other two best games, were the 76ers two wins against the Boston Celtics.  That certainly won’t fly and I don’t expect it to continue.  The loss of Brand and Iggy has hurt Hawes more than anyone else on the team and it shows.

Royal has been fine is in his role, gotta be happy with how he has played.  Wilkins has been Wilkins.  Maalik has had some nice moments here and there.  Anyone think that Moultrie would put up the same numbers as Vucevic if he was on Orlando???

The team is a respectable 11-9 but that is in at least one person’s estimation, it’s a total mirage.  Over the next 20 games, the 7-6 will be favorites in at most 7 games.  Variance played a positive role to start the season and even if the team breaks even in that regard going forward, the days of .500 basketball will be over by Christmas.  

Regardless of record, this team isn’t competing for a championship even with a healthy Bynum.  The fans and front office will now play the waiting game for an All-Star big to return and lead the team to nothing except inevitable disappointment.


 
 
 

95 Responses to “QUARTER POLE REVIEW”

  1. Dan
    10. December 2012 at 12:57

    This might be the most negative article ever written on this page. How can there be basically nothing positive to be said about a team that is over .500 without their best player? Even the positives, such as ET’s improvement, you write off as luck. I’m not saying they’re a contender, but they’re a playoff team right now. They must be doing something right. Give credit where credit is due

  2. Greg
    10. December 2012 at 13:59

    What is this all based on I don’t even get it. Have you disregarded all classic statistics? Such as points per game, assists per game, wins and losses…

  3. Greg
    10. December 2012 at 14:01

    I think you wrote this directly after the buzzer sounded to end the Saturday night game against Boston. You let you emotions and Billy Bean type nonsense get the best of you.

  4. RYN_JAY
    10. December 2012 at 14:10

    Let’s do ourselves all a favor and don’t even comment on Steve’s articles. Maybe then he will stop writing them.

  5. Lck
    10. December 2012 at 14:16

    This will be my last comment on Philadunkia, and its because of you Steve.
    None of you should be surprised. This is a guy who thinks that Lou Williams is better than jrue holiday. That Andre iguodala is better than Allen iverson and is a hofamer. This is a guy who thinks that Jodie Meeks should start over Kobe, and that some guy named Neil Johnston is better than Kobe. And if you disagree wih any of his opinions, he thinks you are stupid, and that he knows more about basketball than anyone else in the world. So this was a mild article in comparison to his idiotic claims and attitudes. Good day to you Steve, and may god have mercy on your soul.

  6. Ant
    10. December 2012 at 14:33

    Steve

    I would have to agree with Dan. This article is completely negative for a team that has exceeded expectations, without Bynum. Giving credit where it is deserved is needed. I dont even want to go into with you concerning your negative remarks because they are absurd. For someone who seems to have such animosity towards the sixers, why do you even write for them?

  7. DJScope
    10. December 2012 at 14:37

    This might be the most ludicrous article I have ever read on Philadunkia. Holiday is top 5 assists and “Sweet Lou” isn’t even a PG in Atlanta. Jrue has been improving with ball security and making better decisions in passing–dropping his turnovers per game. Please remove yourself from Lou Williams’ compression shorts, Steve.

    Saying Jason Richardson is the 2nd best player on the team and Evan Turner being an 8th player on the team CLEARLY proves that you have NO idea what you’re talking about. I’ll disregard anymore articles you choose to post on this domain from now on.

  8. Louie
    10. December 2012 at 14:53

    Do you guys want to know why toll still has a job? Because his articles get 30-70 comments.

  9. Chris H.
    10. December 2012 at 14:58

    Well Steve,
    Just as I thought that you were starting to see the light on what the team was trying to do (give more time for player development) you reel us back. What is it that you have against a player that Doc Rivers thinks could be an all-start this year. Except for maybe turnovers, Jrue has improved on just about all facets of the game…sorry I don’t have a comparitive statistical analysis. The team as a whole is better than last year. I don’t see how you don’t see that, but I guess you will always have the apparent G.O.A.T. (Iggy)…btw, what’s Denver’s record with that hall of famer? Oh. Mr. Toll, you claim to be a fan, but instead of throwing out a bunch of stats that the common fan couldn’t understand, why don’t you sit back and enjoy the games. You say overachieving, based on what I don’t know, but I think that they should be 3 games better…easy!

  10. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 15:00

    Dan,
    I give credit to ET for hitting 3′s, being adept at creating for others and avoiding turnovers. What do you attribute, if not variance, to going from 28% from 3 and 40% from 10-15 feet, to 44% and 48%? There isn’t 1 team in the NBA who is in the playoffs as of right now, if you know otherwise… please put a link up.

    Greg,
    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba.htm
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

    When you bring up BB, I cringe. There is NO SALARY CAP in baseball, there is a salary cap in basketball. Do you honestly not understand the difference?

    RYN_Jay,
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFgXF0a_Yw4

  11. Dervin
    10. December 2012 at 15:08

    Other than the puzzling negative view of Jrue, I understand and share the disappointment.

    The Sixers had a really favorable schedule, it’s only going to get tougher from here. Zero games against Brooklyn, Atlanta and Miami.

    And the losses haven’t been encouraging, crushed two nights in a row against NY. The inexcusable loss to Detroit.

    Sure losing Bynum for six months is crushing, but this team has been selling us “Moral Victories” for the last 5 years, and I think everybody’s patience is wearing thin.

  12. Jeff McMenamin
    10. December 2012 at 15:14

    @ Steve…

    I’ll answer this…
    Dan,
    I give credit to ET for hitting 3′s, being adept at creating for others and avoiding turnovers. What do you attribute, if not variance, to going from 28% from 3 and 40% from 10-15 feet, to 44% and 48%?
    For Dan…

    Oh I don’t know…Maybe working with one of the most respected basketball minds in the history of the game all summer long?
    http://www.csnphilly.com/sportsnetPhiladelphia/search/v/45716692/evan-turner-works-out-with-herb-magee-7-19.htm

    But, yeah that’s right…You know everything. Apparently there’s no such thing as improving your game in your mind. Turner still “sucks” in your mind and is just “lucky”. Get a clue dude. Wake up. Your negativity is unreal. The Sixers are inconsistent because they are severely undersized in the paint. You claim Turner isn’t a good rebounder because he doesn’t grab offensive boards, when he has more 10 rebound games then the 7 foot Spencer Hawes who you think deserved his extension more than Turner. For a team that lacks rebounding, Turner has done a phenomenal job. You’re just simply a hater.

  13. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 15:21

    Neil Johnston played in the early 50′s. Over the course of 6 years, he was the BEST PLAYER IN THE NBA. 5 out of the 6 years, he was clearly the most productive player. Injuries cut his career short. He played in a different era and averaged 22pts,13reb,3ast in his prime. Steals and Blocks were not accounted for.

    LCK wants to make the argument that Kobe is better than Neil Johnston and WS48 doesn’t make sense because Neil has a higher score compared to Kobe. The reality is, prime Neil Johnston (which was basically he entire career) was superior to Kobe’s best 6 years by a huge margin.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsne01.html

    Iguodala will be in the HOF and he is better than Iverson.

    Ant,
    Please quote what part of my article you feel the animosity seeping through your monitor.
    I write about the 76ers because I am doing my best to lead the fans of the team towards water about what is going on with the 76ers. It would be a disservice to myself and the readers to write things that I don’t believe are true when the evidence is clearly with me.

    DJScope,
    In what way do you disagree with how my assessment of the matchups against Holiday have gone so far this season? Greivis Vasquez averages .4 less assists per game in 6 less minutes per game, and played Jrue to a stalemate. Assists are cool, being better at basketball would be much cooler.

    Jason Richardson has clearly been the 2nd best player through the first 20 games. It’s not even something that is up for debate at this point since the evidence is overwhelming. Turner is an 8th man on a high level NBA team, on this team he is currently the 3rd/4th guy depending on whom you prefer between him and Jrue based on the first 20 games and also acknowledging his HOF level shooting from 2 spots on the floor that he has been historically awful.

    Louie,
    Have you considered that far more often than not, I am correct?

  14. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 15:37

    Chris H,

    Last years team started out 14-6, this years team 11-9. I hope that was a joke when you say this team has UNDERPERFORMED by 3 wins, LOL.
    Denver has played 15 road games, that is why there are 82 games, so everything evens out.

    Dervin,

    Thanks but there isn’t really anything all that puzzling about my Holiday assessment. That’s how the play broke down through those games. I did omit some players like Pablo Prigioni, Ramon Sessions, Brian Roberts, John Lucas III because of such a ridiculously small sample size of under 5 minutes.
    You are absolutely right, the next 20 games are not going to be enjoyable. Tonight is a must win.

    J. McMenamin,
    The word I used is variance. There is an unquestioned difference between the 2.

    How come Turner has taken a massive drop in shooting % from 16 feet out to the 3pt line? Under your premise, Herb Mcgee turned him into a bad shooter from that distance.

    If you think that Turner will continue those %’s, you are making an argument that in 6 months…. ET went from terrible shooter to a guy who is better from 10-15 feet and 3pt range than PRIME STEVE NASH AND DIRK…

    Is this real life?

  15. Jeff McMenamin
    10. December 2012 at 16:19

    @ Steve…

    Because you love to use stats lets use some…

    Evan Turner..
    298 points: 3rd on the team (by just one point to Thad’s 299) in points
    139 rebounds: 2nd on the team (by just nine rebounds to Thad), 8th among SF’s who play 30+ min
    79 assists: 2nd on the team (by 100 assists to Jrue, who’s apparently a “below-average” point guard)
    2.08 A/TO ratio: 44th in the NBA, 3rd among SF’s who play 30+ min (LeBron and Prince are ahead)
    44% 3-point: 1st on the team, 3rd among NBA SF’s

    Spencer Hawes (6 inches taller, 25 pounds heavier than Turner)
    145 points: 7th on team
    107 rebounds: 3rd on team, 28th among NBA centers
    23 blocks: 1st on the team, 16th among centers (happy with that stat)
    50 fouls: 5th on team, but unacceptable considering he’s played nearly 300 less minutes than Holiday, Thad and Turner and is just 7 fouls away from Thad, the team leader.

    Going by stats it’s clear Turner is one of the top 3 players on the team, compared to Hawes who is playing more like the 7th man.

    The Sixers three big men (Thad, Hawes and Lavoy) have accounted for 158 fouls, or 7.9 fouls a game. Since mostly they foul under the basket, that’s an average of at least 16 freebies a game. Not to mention how much it hurts at this point for any of them to be in foul trouble, especially Thad.

    As I stated in my last article…The Sixers need to find a defensive big that rebounds with authority. It would be nice if he could limit his fouls and score a little as well. I don’t believe waiting for Bynum or playing for the lottery will be any good for this team. They’re a playoff-bound team and are only lacking in really one facet of the game. Their team FG% will go up and opponents FG% will go down if they can trade for a big who can do this for them. December is a really tough stretch of games for this team…and their current lineup won’t be able to survive against bigger teams like the Nets, Bulls, Pacers, Lakers, Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, Portland…In other words every game in December.

  16. freezer
    10. December 2012 at 16:23

    Jrue, thad, and Jrich all have 17 pers which are all above average. As Jrue gets older and keeps the turnovers down that number will almost certainly jump into the 20′s which would be elite status.
    Think you could use your fancy espn research tools and figure out how many 22 and under pgs have a 17+ PER playing over 38 mpg?
    You also maticulousluy dissect holiday and turners numbers, but for thad all you say is
    “Thad is unquestionably the 76ers best player. He is good on both ends of the court and brings it on a nightly basis. Giving up some combination of size and strength every night is both physically and emotionally taxing.”
    That sir is baseless and what ive come to realize about you is you use numbers willy nilly; you pick and choose what you need to support your arguement, and then you ignore anything that might disprove your point.

  17. MountainDrew
    10. December 2012 at 16:34

    Freezer, Jeff and pretty much everyone else is right about this. While our record will probably be sub .500 soon, it’s amazing how much you hate on the team, except the guys you happen to like. Thad will not shoot threes anytime soon, and it is better that way. What’s his % on midrange shots this season?

    The fact that you don’t deny Meeks starting over Bryant is a good idea proves how ridiculous this is. Same goes for you saying this 50s dude was better than Kobe even though he only averaged 22-13 in an era where it is easy to rack up stats. You, sir, are clueless.

    Just wanna say that freezer had one of the best comments ever.

  18. Fumes
    10. December 2012 at 16:59

    Two things Steve in regard to Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner:
    1. Iggy’s CAREER 3-PT Shooting % is 33%, yet somehow IMPROVED TO 39.4% LAST YEAR. If your boy Iggy is allowed a noticeable uptick in 3-PT shooting, why can’t Evan Turner as well. Sure Turner’s 3-PT shooting is not likely to stay this hot, but if he keeps taking SMART, WIDE OPEN CORNER 3s rather than the ill-advised ones Iggy took, it is likely to remain around 40%. Don’t be so negative. If Iggy’s 3-PT shooting is allowed to increase, so can Turners. Jason Kidd early in his career was a terrible 3-PT shooter; now he is 3rd all-time in made 3-PT shots.
    2. Even after two sup-par shooting/game-in-general performances from Turner, his line of 14.9 ppg, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.9 TOs/game is better in every way than Iggy’s line of 14.2/5.2/3.7/3.0. Also, Turner’s PER of 15.02 after two sub-standard performances AND a sub-standard start to the year is still HIGHER than Iggy’s PER of 13.41.

  19. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 17:21

    Jeff,

    You are a true glutton for punishment. Stop talking about Spencer Hawes. This is not about J-Rich and Evan Turner

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/PHI.html

    http://www.thenbageek.com/players/compare?utf8=%E2%9C%93&player_ids%5B%5D=257&player_ids%5B%5D=436

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=richaja01&y1=2013&p2=turneev01&y2=2013

    Jason Richardson has a +7.5 Roland Rating and is +33 this year. ET has a -1.2 Roland Rating and is -37 this year.

    PER, WS48, Win Shares, Regularized Adjusted +/-, +/-, Roland Rating, Wins Produced per48, Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating are ALL IN FAVOR OF JRICH. Every single one of the stats favors Jason Richardson. Also, ET is 27th in total minutes and 122nd in offensive rebounds

    Are you really going to continue to argue ET > Jason Richardson???

    Anyone else want to chime in to the Jrich vs ET debate?

  20. Louie
    10. December 2012 at 17:22

    Steve,

    Only you think that you’ve been right about everything. That’s why I think you’re delusional. Nobody else thinks that you’re right but you, and you think that everybody else is stupid for not agreeing with you, which has led to so many “successful” articles for you. I put quotations around successful because the content is BS, but it piles on comments, so yeah, you’re successful.

    However, I’m curious about WS48. Could you tell me some of the main factors used in finding this stat?

    Oh, and BTW, who the hell is Neil Johnston, and who the hell are you to say that he is better than Kobe?! Is it just me, or is this complete BS? Could someone besides Steve explain to me how Neil Johnston is anywhere close to the level of Kobe Bean Bryant?

  21. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 17:28

    Freezer,

    Thad has the highest highest WS48, .002 behind Jrich. Has the best Regularized Adjusted +/-, the best +/- at +68. He has the most Win Shares and Wins Produced on the team. His +7 Team Rating (Off Rating minus Def Rating) is second behind Jason Richardson. Thad has has the highest offensive rating on the team and 2nd best defensive rating. Thads 54 TS% is second to JRich’s 54.1 TS%.

    Like I said, Thad is unquestionably the best player

  22. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 17:42

    Fumes,

    Iguodala did it over an entire season and it has continued this year a 36.3%. Jason Kidd has done it over multiple seasons. Both those guys are Hall of Fame level players. Turner has hade a 16% increase in 3pt shooting, which I can safely assume is the largest jump in history when you factor in he is taking 2x the amount of 3pt shots per game as he has done historically. Furthermore, he has taken 7 3s from the non corner part of the floor and hit 3 of those 7.

    I’ll disregard your comparison of Iguodala and ET because nobody in their right mind would take ET over Iggy over the rest of the season or even next few years.

    MountainDrew,
    Thad was a 34.4% 3pt shooter on 300+ attempts before DC arrived at age 20/21. This year Thad is shooting approximately 38% from outside 10 feet.

    Last season, yea Meeks > Kobe on that Lakers team. I stand by that. As for freezers comment being great, I put him in his place as usual with my response.

    Neil Johnston was the best player in the NBA for arguably 6 straight seasons. They are in different eras and an injury ended his career. Kobe has had a great career but it is outright ignorant to suggest that Prime Neil > Prime Kobe isn’t plainly obvious

  23. Lennix
    10. December 2012 at 17:54

    i wonder how many assists jrue has by feeding jrich the ball. pretty funny jrich, who really only shoots, is considered the 2nd best player on the team.
    I like the comparisons of jrue and every match up he has had. He has been outplayed but i t has to be impressive what he has done with basically no one around him. Itd be much more interesting to see how he would play if he appropriate big men he could use, be more interesting how turner would fair.
    overall this article not being liked makes sense. I get all of steves points but meh id take them with a grain of salt. I would rather play for lottery but what if bynum does come back? too hard to say what to do with this team, really. Moultrie should be getting as much run possible and malik really should be out there for defensive purposes with jrue at the 2 sometimes.
    it makes no sense to get a lottery pick since its very clear that collins doesnt play rookies. trading moultrie instead of vuc makes a little more sense.

  24. Jeff McMenamin
    10. December 2012 at 17:56

    @Steve,

    Haha wow…I couldn’t have set you up any better for the embarrassment which is about to come your way. You did it to yourself though.

    First off, why not talk about Spencer Hawes? Am I not allowed or something because he’s on your “like” list?

    Here’s what you said about Hawes back on Nov. 7th, now you’re not willing to defend him, because you were severely wrong…
    “Spencer Hawes for 2 years and 13 million dollars, are you kidding me? Who negotiated that atrocious deal? Have you ever watched a 7-foot guy player basketball before? Don’t you realize that guys of that size don’t peak until their late 20′s? Why was he signed for only 2 years? How could you mess that up by only signing him for 2 years? At least have a team option in year 3 or something, anything but just a 2 year deal. Hawes is going to leave and be entering his prime. He was worth 2-13, he was certainly worth 3-20 or 4-28. What was the rationale there?

    There isn’t going to be room to resign Hawes when his contract expires and he will be entering the prime of his career on another team. For a team that talks about championship aspirations and a proper foundation for the future, paying Holiday 41 million and extending ET for another season while letting the best player of the 3 leave town is a monumental failure especially considering he will make less than both players over the 2 next seasons. Add in the ridiculous miss on signing Spencer Hawes to a 2 year deal and the team is destined for mediocrity over the next few years.”

    Plus you’re absolutely right. I was “not” talking about Jason Richardson. In fact, the last thing I said about Jason Richardson on this site was this…
    “They have a shooting guard in Jason Richardson who has played more than serviceable both on offense and defense for most of the early season.”

    You’re the one who said before the season…
    “Dorell Wright is better than Jason Richardson and obviously, SwaggyP.”

    You also said…
    “Jason Richardson isn’t even a top 25 SG: Wade, Kobe, Manu, Harden, Terry, Ellis, Mayo, Fields, Joe Johnson, Eric Gordon Ray Allen, Kevin Martin, Chauncey Billups, Marcus Thornton, Paul George, Tony Allen, Brandon Rush, JR Smith, Ronnie Brewer, Wesley Matthews, Danny Green, Meeks, JJ Redick, Dorell Wright, Lou Williams.”

    Now all you do is praise Richardson because he’s totally out-performed what you thought he could be. I don’t even mind if you consider him to be better than Turner, because the fact of the matter is they’re both good in my mind. You can use advanced stats that none of the readers of this site ever use to evaluate basketball to try and say that Turner is “lucky”, but we’re not stupid. We watch the games and know what we see.

    This is what I said about Richardson before the season…
    “For Richardson this season comes down to his shooting ability, defense, and leadership. He’s a big guard who’s currently the oldest player on the team. He’s shown throughout his career how much of a threat he can be from the perimeter if left open and he’s guarded nearly every type of guard you can imagine in his career. What will most likely take away from his minutes and production is his health and age. I believe Richardson still has some good years left in him and will be up for the challenge.”

    Steve…You can either keep being wrong, keep being hypocritical or both…but there’s endless claims you’ve made which are easy to find such as these which are both. You’re not fooling anyone.

  25. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 18:10

    Hawes absolutely should have received a 3 or 4 year extension, I stand by that. 20 game sample size. There are 62 more games to go. The team messed up all 3 moves with Holiday, Hawes and Lou, I stand by that. The team is destined for years of mediocrity, I stand by that.

    Over the rest of the season, I would take almost every single one of those SGs over Jason Richardson, so I stand by that.

    Dorell Wright has been better than Jrich and SwaggyP for the past 2 seasons. I am happy with JRichs play, and he has been a pleasant surprise as he is the ultimate “youth movement” player….. I stand by that too

    You said “ET is a top 3 player on this team” which means Thad, Jrue and ET but I just totally disproved any notion of that being possible, which you fail to acknowledge.
    JRich > ET in PER, WS48, Win Shares, Regularized Adjusted +/-, +/-, Roland Rating, Wins Produced per48, Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating.

    Are you really going to continue to make the ET > Jrich argument?

    I use the word variance, not luck. There is a difference. ET is having a ridiculous start to the year shooting and only has a 50.5 TS%

    So I stand by everything I have said and am more on point about the 76ers than anyone in the whole world, that’s good enough for me. 62 games to go.

    Also, Anderson Varajeo

  26. Steve Toll
    10. December 2012 at 18:16

    Lennix,
    First, thanks for reading and seeing this for what it is, even with a grain of salt included.

    Moultrie is 3% to be a below average NBA player for a few years playing minutes in the high teens. His playing has nothing to do with the future, in my opinion. No team has ever got a #1 pick without being in the lottery, so it’s important that the 76ers at least get a shot. DC won’t be around forever and if the team luck boxes the 8th seed then this team is pretty devoid of young, cheap talent going forward which makes winning in the NBA a tough thing to do. I’ll take a lottery pick going forward especially with a team whose front office has point blank stated “Youth Movement”

    There is a reason that Orlando wanted Vucevic > Moultrie and I made that point as soon as the trade happened.

  27. cool whip
    10. December 2012 at 18:35

    @ Jeff
    I couldn’t have said it any better myself. The fact of the matter is that you were wrong Steve, now do us all a favor and admit it.

  28. Jeff McMenamin
    10. December 2012 at 18:47

    Steve,

    This is the first thing I thought of after your recent rebuttal…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmGQ5SlazJA

    The only problem is nobody is standing by you except yourself who you claim is, “more on point about the 76ers than anyone in the whole world.”

    It’s really funny to me. Here’s a comparison of the 25 SG’s you mentioned this season…compared to Richardson using the site you just used The NBA Geek…
    POS Min WP48 PoP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
    Allen SG 485 .220 3.7 2.2 22.9 4.4 1.1 5.4 3.6 2.2 0.2 1.7 4.1
    Richardson SG 477 .216 3.6 2.1 20.1 5.6 1.2 6.8 2.2 1.2 1.0 3.0 2.5
    Bryant SG 786 .193 2.9 3.2 36.7 5.5 0.9 6.4 6.3 4.8 0.1 2.1 3.7
    Brewer SF 454 .192 2.9 1.8 13.9 5.0 2.1 7.1 2.5 0.7 0.4 2.7 2.1
    Martin SG 619 .188 2.8 2.4 25.7 3.4 0.2 3.6 2.7 2.6 0.2 1.8 3.3
    Mayo SG 704 .173 2.3 2.5 28.4 4.4 0.9 5.2 4.7 3.5 0.3 1.2 3.2
    Harden SG 739 .159 1.9 2.4 30.5 4.3 1.2 5.5 6.9 5.1 0.6 2.2 2.8
    Green SF 555 .158 1.9 1.8 16.9 4.7 1.1 5.8 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.9
    Terry SG 591 .140 1.3 1.7 18.6 3.1 0.2 3.2 3.4 1.9 0.1 1.5 2.2
    Ginobili SF 431 .131 1.0 1.2 23.3 6.3 0.3 6.7 8.9 4.0 0.6 2.6 4.3
    Wade SG 503 .130 1.0 1.4 28.3 4.0 1.3 5.3 6.3 3.2 0.9 1.7 2.5
    George SF 743 .128 0.9 2.0 20.9 7.8 1.4 9.1 4.8 3.4 0.9 1.7 3.6
    Williams 416 .124 0.8 1.1 27.8 3.5 0.3 3.8 6.1 3.2 0.6 2.4 2.9
    Wright SF 422 .124 0.8 1.1 16.7 7.5 1.9 9.4 1.9 2.3 0.9 2.5 2.7
    Redick SG 593 .122 0.7 1.5 21.3 3.1 0.2 3.2 7.9 3.5 0.1 0.9 2.8
    Matthews SG 745 .120 0.6 1.9 20.6 3.2 0.9 4.1 3.4 1.9 0.4 2.3 3.4
    Allen SG 363 .112 0.4 0.8 15.1 5.4 1.3 6.7 1.1 2.1 1.2 4.0 5.2
    Billups G 60 .088 -0.3 0.1 17.6 2.4 0.0 2.4 5.6 3.2 0.0 1.6 1.6
    Smith SG 656 .072 -0.9 1.0 20.0 6.7 0.7 7.3 4.0 2.0 0.7 1.8 4.2
    Thornton SG 520 .063 -1.1 0.7 23.6 3.6 1.5 5.1 2.5 1.5 0.1 1.6 3.2
    Johnson SG 713 .042 -1.8 0.6 20.5 2.8 0.8 3.6 4.6 2.3 0.3 0.7 1.5
    Meeks SG 279 .037 -1.9 0.2 22.4 4.6 0.3 5.0 3.1 3.1 0.0 1.9 3.6
    Gordon SG 0 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Ellis PG 671 -.008 -3.3 -0.1 25.5 3.9 0.6 4.4 7.3 3.7 0.8 2.1 2.4
    Rush SG 25 -.045 -4.5 -0.0 26.9 1.9 0.0 1.9 3.8 5.8 0.0 0.0 9.6
    Fields GF 107 -.107 -6.4 -0.2 5.4 5.8 1.3 7.2 3.6 2.2 0.0 1.3 2.7

    Look who’s in second place, Richardson! He’s second among SG’s in WP48 Min! That must mean he’s obviously the 2nd best SG in the league right now!

    What’s funny to me is you say “20 game sample size. There are 62 more games to go,” about Hawes and then right after say about Richardson…”Over the rest of the season, I would take almost every single one of those SG’s over Jason Richardson, so I stand by that.”

    Right before that you say about Richardson and Turner…
    “Jason Richardson has clearly been the 2nd best player through the first 20 games. It’s not even something that is up for debate at this point since the evidence is overwhelming. Turner is an 8th man on a high level NBA team, on this team he is currently the 3rd/4th guy depending on whom you prefer between him and Jrue based on the first 20 games and also acknowledging his HOF level shooting from 2 spots on the floor that he has been historically awful.”

    So wait…A 20 game sample size matters or doesn’t matter? The only variance I see is the tone of your opinion. You say Richardson’s production in 20 games matters…Only to say that it doesn’t matter because he won’t keep it up the rest of the season.

    Also, if you feel like advanced stats tell the complete truth then how can you say based on the advanced stats that are available from the 2012-13 season that Hawes will miraculously out-perform Turner and Holiday as the best player of the three and that Richardson will just drop 24 spots over the next 62 games among SG’s?

    If this is the case for Richardson, how is it possible that he’ll be better then Turner by the end of the season if he does fall off the face of the earth statistically? I stand by my analysis (and Collins and pretty much every other Sixers analyst) that Turner is top three player on the Sixers right now. He’s averaging 15 points, seven boards and four assists through 20 games on 43 percent shooting.

    Iguodala averaged 12 points, six rebounds and five assists last season on 45 percent shooting (his only all-star season in the NBA). You claim for him to be a HOF and you said about Turner, “As an athlete, Evan Turner is in the lower echelon on NBA wings. Furthermore, his inability to score from the outside allows defenders to sag off and gives Turner 3 options. He can take a -EV jump shot, attack the rim to shoot or pass, or continue to dribble and pass. Turner isn’t a good enough athlete to blow by a defender who is already giving him space.”

    Only Lebron, Durant and Marc Gasol currently average at least 14 ppg, 7 rpg, and 4 assists per game in the NBA right now. I guess that makes Turner a “lower echelon NBA wing”? Turner is shooting 46 percent from three. He’s shooting as you’ve said +EV from 10-15 feet this season or in other words “Nash or Dirk MVP season good”. He’s second on the team in FTA’s with 68. The 68 ties him with your boy Lou Williams for 59th in the NBA…which means he’s been taking it to the rack this season and is a good enough athlete to do so.

    As for this…
    “Dorell Wright has been better than Jrich and SwaggyP for the past 2 seasons. I am happy with JRichs play, and he has been a pleasant surprise as he is the ultimate “youth movement” player….. I stand by that too.”

    You also said this about Richardson before the season…
    “If Jason Richardson is 80% of himself this season, all you have to look at JRich from last year and that’s what the city will be getting.”

    “I have nothing against JRich other than he is owed 19 million over the next 3 seasons and is a dog to be average this season.”

    Is JRich playing like he was last season? Are they getting 80% of J Rich this season? Is he playing “average” this season as he currently sits (by your standards) with the 2nd best “advanced stats” rating in the NBA among SG’s?

    Keep your arguments coming though Steve. I enjoy knocking down every single one of them.

  29. Paul
    10. December 2012 at 18:49

    wow. this is one of the more ridiculous articles I’ve ever read. Not to mention the fact that this guy claimed that he is “more on point about the 76ers than anyone in the whole world”. I feel like he almost has to be kidding. Its almost impossible to take that kind of statement seriously. And as far as the Kobe vs. Johnston argument, Steve claims that it would be ridiculous to say prime-Kobe is better, but he is the only person I have ever heard make the claim this this guy is better. Finally, there is no chance that Iguodala will end up in the HOF. No shot whatsoever. He’s not even close. He leaves the sixers for the nuggets, and the sixers are no worse than last year, while the nuggets have dropped off a little but. I feel like a HOF switching teams would have different ramifications than that.

  30. Hitzy
    10. December 2012 at 19:09

    I absolutely agree with Steve.

    JK no way, Steve what you’re saying is ludicrous. Seriously, do you even watch the games. Evan Turner is a good player, better than the eighth man on a good team. There are only four players in the NBA with at least 14 ppg, 7 rpg, and 4 assists per game. Those four are Lebron, Durant, Marc Gasol, and Evan Turner. That’s some pretty good company. And to Iguodala being a Hall of Famer, you GOT TO BE KIDDING. That may be the dumbest thing I ever heard. Evan Turner is better than him. Just watch them play, you can easily see. That’s a great joke, Meeks> Kobe, that’s is dumb. Steve, just watch the games, stats don’t mean a thing.

  31. Jeff McMenamin
    10. December 2012 at 21:35

    Hey Steve,

    Turner and Jrue looked really bad tonight.

    Turner 18 points, 8-13 shooting, 1-1 from three, 11 boards and 7 assists…but you’re right, “Evan Turner is still not good, just less terrible as of right now.”

    Or how about Jrue?
    Jrue 25 points, 11-20 shooting, 8 assists and 5 boards…I guess Holiday is, “a distant 6th out of the point guards in the Atlantic Division”

    Sixers 12-9

  32. Hitzy
    10. December 2012 at 21:48

    I agree with Jeff about ET and Jrue. Sure looked good tonight.

  33. ken
    10. December 2012 at 21:57

    The part I love the most is how toll says he knows the sixers the best out of everybody in the world but if you look at his preseason predictions for the sixers players he is so far wrong about jrue, turner, richardson, hawes, and wright and right about swaggy p and brown. so much for knowing the sixers better than everyone with your advanced stats. btw im a stats major as well and even elementary stat people know that you cant base all of your opinions on stats bc some stats dont tell the whole story and will make you look dumb

  34. Will
    10. December 2012 at 22:17

    Just to be clear, you mean to say that Neil Johnston was better relative to his competition than Bryant is to his, right? I mean, Neil Johnston was a plodding 6’8″ center who thrived in the pre-shot clock era.

  35. Larry Brown
    10. December 2012 at 22:24

    Toll go pay your Toll at the Toll booth. Nick Young is who we thought he was, and we know that Nick is a great player on a selfish team. 1 year my friend. hope Nick land on a team that no how to play a exciting, created,pure scorer like Nick Freakem Young.

  36. Jim
    10. December 2012 at 23:08

    Steve: You’re delusional, stubborn, and immature. This statement by you is great evidence of that. “So I stand by everything I have said and am more on point about the 76ers than anyone in the whole world, that’s good enough for me. 62 games to go.”

    Allow me to recap some of the things you written in the comment sections to provide further evidence of your delusion and inability to reason.

    You don’t think that Derrick Rose would get the max if he was a restricted free agent despite the fact that he is a young, former MVP that has yet to hit his prime and there a ton of teams with cap space that are desperate for a superstar. You think he endorses Reebok and Nike even though he endorses Adidas.

    You don’t think that OJ Mayo will sign with the Sixers this offseason, but you bring up the prospect of both CP3 and Dwight Howard teaming up here instead.

    You think that the Sixers made a mistake by extending Jrue before he hit restricted free agency where he would have received a more lucrative contract from another team. This means the Sixers would have had to either pay more to keep Jrue or let him walk without getting anything in return.

    You think that Holiday could be voted an all-star this year because the Sixers are in the 5th/6th largest market, but you can’t explain why he wasn’t voted in as an all-star when the Sixers were in the 5th/6th largest the first few years of Holiday’s career. That argument might only apply to Jeremy Lin, who could be backed by China.

    You think the Sixers would be better of using the money they gave Jrue to sign Devin Harris or Calderon and the $5 million they have left over after paying one of those players $5 millionish. You have yet to identify that player the Sixers would sign (not it would make much difference).

    Your takes are just awful, bro.

  37. Adam
    11. December 2012 at 00:17

    Steve,

    Ignoring that win share is an obnoxious meaningless statistic.

    This article is insane. Jrich is an above average role player, not our 2nd best player. Hes a pedestrian defender and all he does well is hit open shots off the ball.

    Holiday turner and thad are our best players…. There is no debate, just watch the game instead of relying on advanced stats, especially advanced stats that dont mean anything.

    Just watch the game….

  38. Adam
    11. December 2012 at 00:23

    Toll,

    I regret posting that….

    Only because i know the only reason u have a job with philadunkia is because u say obnoxious stupid things that piss people off and get comments.

    So, good job.

  39. Chris
    11. December 2012 at 00:53

    The only thing that I agree with Steve about is the Jrue isn’t an elite PG…yet. I consider elite to be Top 5 at your position and Jrue isnt that yet. I have Jrue as the 11th best point guard in the NBA right now behind(not in an any specific order): Rondo, D. Williams, Irving, Teague, Paul, Curry, Parker, Conley, Westbrook, Lawson. Only my opinion though.

  40. Allan
    11. December 2012 at 00:57

    I threw up a little bit after I read this article

  41. Fu
    11. December 2012 at 05:15

    Steve,

    well, first of all, thanks for sharing your thoughts, even if no everyone agrees.

    in theses comment, you very often stand by your previous opinions (even the meeks>kobe joke). can you recall any position you made that you do not stand by anymore? i would be interested to hear.

    on the vucevic>moultrie, of course it is true on their fair value, but we all know DC would not have played him, as he did last year.

    as for JRich as the no2 best player on the team, 82games’ “simple rating” also backs you up. but it also ranks Swaggy-P as no4. what’s your view on that?
    http://www.82games.com/1213/1213PHI.HTM

    thanks

  42. Alex Brandão
    11. December 2012 at 11:32

    All those stats left me with a doubt: if we could build a team of clones from the player with the best WS, would this team be better than or win a game against, say, the 2004 Piston (a team with no superstars but filled with players who did their roles very well)?

    Am I the only one here who thinks that comparing JRich and ET is tough because THEY PLAY VERY DIFFERENT from each other?! I don’t see ET shooting 3s like JRich and JRich creating like ET…

    I agree that Jrue has improved a lot but I also agree that he’s had his a** kicked by the likes of Westbrook, Jennings, DWilliams and so on.

    I’m with Jeff on the “we are one good forward away from contending in the east” bandwagon!

  43. Steve Toll
    11. December 2012 at 12:14

    Jeff,

    You are quite the dolt, this is a 20 game review, not a projection for the rest of the season. A 20 game sample is a mix of fact, importance and uselessness, while that may seem tough for you to comprehend it is very simple. Jason Richardson has proved to be able to play at this level before, but because of his age and production the last few years, this sample size is likely an outlier. Same thing with Evan Turner, who is shooting at a Hall of Fame level from 2 spots on the floor he has been historically terrible at. Obvious his improvement is an indication that he will rise above his previous shooting %’s of 40 and 28 from those area but his rate will surely regress. If not, he is still only a barely positive offensive player at best.

    As of today, ET is 16 in the NBA in minutes with being 55th in free throw attempts, has a TS% of 51, has been -30 on the court. Has a negative RAPM, Roland Rating, below average WS48 on a 12 win team, has a 15.4 PER, Neutral Offensive-Defensive rating and is shooting at a Hall of Fame level from 2 areas on the court that he has been historically awful.

    In the past 20 seasons, 381 players between 6’5 and 6’8 averaged the same minutes as ET and averaged more Free Throws per game. Of those players, 329 or 87% had a higher WS48 and PER than ET does right now.

    61 players of the same height and minute allocation have averaged fewer than 3.3 fta per game. Of those players, 40 had a higher WS48 and PER than Evan Turner.

    These players all did it over the course of a full season, ET is 21 games in and his shooting will regress.

    Jason Richardson is better than Evan Turner, he was last year and the year before and he is this season. Both players are likely to regress but the difference is that Jrich is the better player, get over it.

    Jason Richardson is playing really well, that doesn’t mean that it is sustainable. Isn’t that obvious?

  44. Steve Toll
    11. December 2012 at 12:24

    Paul,

    I feel bad that you honestly believe all that. How many Neil Johnston and Kobe Bryant debates have you had in your life? I’m interested in hearing how they have gone before.

    Hitzy,
    Tell me without using stats why Lebron is the best player in the league?

    Jim,
    You are wrong about the Derrick Rose thing. My point was he might not sign a contract at all or a lesser one in year 1 as to help his team keep good role players around in an effort to win a championship, AFTER HIS KNEE INJURY.

    You are wrong about the Mayo thing. When SwaggyP was signed this was a quote by me “What’s crazy is Philadelphia’s front office values Nick Young more than OJ Mayo who got less from dallas”
    The CP3 and D12 thing was a joke but still possible.

    They did make a mistake, as Holiday isn’t an All-Star and barely a top 15 point who has been outplayed 70% of the time this year

    Will,
    Yes, different era.

    Ken,
    Actually that isn’t what I said and it’s been 21 games into a season where the team has played the most favorable schedule in the entire NBA. Congratulations on being a Stats major, and I can assure you that my writing is actually highly contextual.

  45. Steve Toll
    11. December 2012 at 12:34

    Adam,

    You would be otherwise making good points except for the small issue of being completely wrong.

    Chris,

    What about Lowry, Jennings, Goran Dragic, Kemba Walker all of whom have a higher PER and WS48 on teams with 4,10,7 and 7 wins?

    Then there is Rose and Rubio, George Hill, Damian Lillard, Calderon, Luke Ridnour and Felton too.

    Players like J. Kidd and Lou Will are also far superior but aren’t a true PG

  46. John h.
    11. December 2012 at 12:47

    Steve toll,
    Ur sick of hearing the moneyball comments because their is a salary cap? You can’t get cost effective guys with a salary cap, inst that the point of moneyball? Also your bias on your favorite sixers is outrageous wright is terrible and you still refuse to give any credit to jrue or Evan. How you still believe that Thad young is a 3 is amazing to me, his mid range shooting is painful to watch and you want him to shoot three’s. your a joke just like all these other journalists with no talent you use shock value to get people to read your articles, its quite pathetic if u ask me and it just shows that you write nothing of substance and you yourself know it.

  47. Steve toll
    11. December 2012 at 12:48

    I’m right about everything is there even a question?

  48. Steve Toll
    11. December 2012 at 12:53

    Fu,

    Going back to last season, LAL would have been better off with Meeks of 2011-2012 compared to Kobe of 2011-2012. This year is obviously different but there is no doubt in my mind that is true. Meeks would have been a better fit offensively and is probably neutral defensively as Kobe hasn’t been good since like 08′ on that end.

    Here is a list of things I disagreed with that still ring true: Lou leaving, Drafting Moultrie, Amnesty Brand, Resign Holiday, Extend ETs player option, Sign SwaggyP, Let Meeks leave, Sign Lavoy and Hawes to ONLY 2 year deals, Trade Iggy for Bynum (take in Jason Richardson, Give up Vucevic instead of Moultrie)

    Basically everything this team has done since last season ended, if you are trying to win a championship. If the goal is to be not good or mediocre and possible squeeze in a playoff series win in the next 4 years. I absolutely love what the team has done. Also, Anderson Varejao

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1213.htm
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/page/2
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi
    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/rankings/

    This team went from being borderline elite to bad over the course of 1 offseason.

    About the 82 games, yes he is 4th. Swaggy has the worst rating (-8) when you compare his offensive and defensive rating of all the regular players on the team. Of those guys he also has the lowest PER and WS48. His Wins Produced per 48 is also the lowest of any regular rotation player. He also has the worst Regularized Adjusted +/- of all the rotation players as well.

    His Roland Rating can be attributed to the lineups he has been in with this season, as everything else points to him being terrible. He has been played by his matchup consistently but a few games have gone SwaggyPs way. The past couple years he has been a Negative Player on the Roland Rating scale. It will likely even out after a few games

  49. I am more on point about the 76ers than anyone in the whole world
    11. December 2012 at 13:40

    Sorry, I just had to see if I could post using this now most-famous line of all time here on Philadunkia, lol.

  50. Joe
    11. December 2012 at 14:59

    Steve Toll,

    I am yet to see an article from you that includes insightful analysis and not just a regurgitation of Moneyball style basketball statistics.

    I have some reservations about metrics like the ones you quote, which I can go into in greater detail if you like…

    You use WS48 to make the point that Jrue is inferior to other PG’s in the division, but what I have never read from you is an explanation of WHY you think this is an appropriate stat for measuring a player’s on-court production.

    I’m looking at how basketball-reference.com calculate Win Shares, and at a glance it looks to me like they arrived at the formula through regression analysis. But this can be a fundamentally flawed approach. It is possible (in fact, very common) in regression analysis to arrive at a formula that appears to explain what you want it to, but it is in fact spurious. What I want to know is this – are the regressors used to calculate WS48 relevant? Do the coefficients make sense? And also, what was the decision-making process behind the functional form? It is a linear-linear model, but why weren’t logs taken?

    I don’t expect you to answer these questions specifically, but what I do expect is that if you are going to quote these metrics, that you at least demonstrate that you understand how they are calculated and why they are valid.

    Regression analysis is a murky subject, and if you gave me a dataset and a few hours I could come up with two models that both fit the data, explain the relationships between the variables, are diagnostically robust, but intuitively say very different things.

    So, in summary, you quote these statistics each and every post you make, but you fail to offer an explanation for why you think they are authoritative and an adequate measure of a player’s proficiency at the game of basketball. Have you analysed the statistics? Have you performed an outsample forecast? Are you comfortable with the size and signs of the coefficients? Don’t forget that we are here to analyse the game of basketball, and although you can come up with a perfectly valid stat that fits the data, if you lose sight of the question “how does this relate to what I’m watching on League Pass?” then you may as well just pack up and go home.

    I look forward to hearing from you soon.

  51. Harry
    11. December 2012 at 16:46

    I love your comment Joe.

    For Steve I suggest that you start watching basketball. I can tell you that watching games, especially NBA games, is a pretty fun thing to do and definitely more fun than checking the box scores after games and analyzing them in terms of WS48.

  52. Chris H.
    11. December 2012 at 16:51

    So Steve,
    Where was all the greatness before this year. One LUCKY playoff series win (I’ll give you the hard fought Celtics series) and that’s it. Even though they still might be, you’re telling me that with last year, the year before that, the year before that, the…you get my drift, that they weren’t already stuck in mediocrity? Because I remember some lean years with the collection of guys you keep wishing we kept. So we have someone other than Jrue (according to you anyone will fit) at the point, Iggy at the two, Thad as the SF, Allen at the PF and Hawes at the Center. Lou and Meeks coming off the bench.You’re right. That has championship written all over it. Sorry. Throw in Anderson…THEN we are champions.
    No one is saying or expecting this team, particularly without Bynum, to hoist the championship this year, but why can’t you live with, acknowledge, agree with the fact that this team is better than last year and with short contracts has the chance to grow the likes of Jrue, ET, and Thad and maybe down the line improve through free agency as well?

  53. ceirons
    11. December 2012 at 17:04

    Steve,
    You consistently write the worst articles on this site. Its obvious that you cannot watch a game and diagnosis the plays and the game flow with any sort of basketball IQ. Im confident you are a poor judge of talent and you probably disagree with everything anyone says just to be different. I bet you are short in stature and short on athletic talent. That is the only explanation for his article. As far as I’m concerned your Philadunkia card is revoked.

  54. louie
    11. December 2012 at 17:27

    Steve,

    You asked explain to you how LBJ is the best in the world without using stats. R u kidding?

    Here we go:

    LBJ is a freak of nature athlete. He has the size of a PF with the speed of a guard. He also can handle the ball extremely well and is a good passer. Nobody else in the world can really match his type of athleticism. Plus he has a very high basketball IQ, can guard and play all 5 positions (and do it well), he is a terrific defender as he uses his athleticism and IQ to guard anybody. He is also able to use his size to rebound, and can get to the hoop at will. If you put a guy with lots of size, he will beat them off the dribble. If you put a smaller guy with speed, he can use his size and strength (plus a pretty good post up game) to score on them. This makes him almost impossible to guard. Also, he has an improving jumper. Nobody else in the NBA has the all around game that he has, where he basically does everything on the court, ranging from point guard to center duties, and does a good to great job in each.

    There. I did it using no stats. I could do it with any player if I see a few games. Steve/ Anyone, is this good enough.

  55. Hitzy
    11. December 2012 at 18:25

    Alright Steve I’ll tell you why, he can absolutely take over a basketball game and win it for a team. Can Iguodala do that? I don’t think so. Lebron has expanded his game and can score from anywhere he wants to and is very strong and can fight through fouls. He has become a lot smarter in his shot making and his team just won the NBA championship. He can do anything, pass, rebound, score, play defense, and do them very well. Way better than Iguodala. Sure Iggy can rebound, pass, and play D, but he can not score like Lebron. Iggy is not a Hall of Fame player. Lebron is. Evan Turner is essentially a better scoring, and better rebounding version of Iguodala. Turner can actually get to the hoop unlike Iggy who takes his outside jumpers and misses a lot. Turner makes his mid range jumpers. Turner is not a superstar but he is a better player than Iguodala. Lebron> Mr. Hall of Famer Iggy (LOL that’s a good one).

  56. louie
    11. December 2012 at 18:35

    Can you explain to me why Neil Johnston is better than Kobe without using stats? If you can’t compare anyone, you clearly don’t have the best basketball mind in the world as you seem to claim, since my 6 year old cousin could examine a game better than you.

  57. Jrue
    11. December 2012 at 20:34

    What can I say, haters gonna hate.

  58. Jeff McMenamin
    11. December 2012 at 21:03

    First off…This is by far the longest comment I’ve ever written but please…Everyone who’s part of this thread read this.

    Steve,

    You just further proved my point by dancing around the questions I asked you and responding with dull/pointless stats that hold no weight in any basketball conversation.

    Like I said before…You can either keep being wrong, keep being hypocritical or both…but there are endless claims you’ve made which are easy to find which hold no merit, truth or substance.

    I’m not dolt in any sense of the word, whereas you’re an internet Troll or, “someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous or off-topic messages in an online community, such as a forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.”

    By saying, “A 20 game sample is a mix of fact, importance and uselessness,” proves me right because of the third word you used in that statement: uselessness. RAPM, Roland Rating, and WS48 cannot tell the whole story of a basketball players abilities…and I look to do an in depth story on this in the near-future with quotes from credible sources who have analyzed and used these stats for years and have them give their analysis of the Sixers current roster.

    I guarantee without a doubt that their words will sound 100% different then your words regarding the majority of the claims you’ve made this season.

    I recommend you read these Steve, maybe you’ll learn something…

    RAPM: http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2011/nba-stats/a-review-of-adjusted-plusminus-and-stabilization/
    Here’s a good explanation on the con’s of RAPM:
    “(1) Adjusted plus/minus ratings have a high variance. The regression tries to find a constant value for a player, but this value can change pretty dramatically with a different role, a different coaching scheme, different teammates, or different match-ups.
    (2) There is noise in the data. For some players, especially when only looking at data over just 1 year, there are some strange results, but that is to be expected. An examination of 239 players revealed that only 7% of the variation in a player’s adjusted plus–minus value in 2008-09 was explained by what he did in 2007-08. Although more data does increase the level of statistical significance, it’s still the case that most players even when five years of data is employed are not found by this method to have a statistically significant impact.
    (3) Another issue which adjusted plus-minus technique struggles to address is the multicollinearity issue. Coaches prefer to use some player duos/trios frequenly or rarely since all players could not be on the court with every other teammate at the same time.”

    Roland Rating: http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/What-Happens-When-PER-and-%2B–Collide-BBD694.htm
    This is a quote directly from the site you use 82games.com to find the Roland Rating, “These ratings represent a player’s value to a particular team and are not intended to be an accurate gauge of the ability and talent of the player. ”

    WS48: This is the best explanation that I could find regarding the stat…
    “Synergy stats (what WS48 is) are the best for judging a players defensive capabilities, no doubt about that. Yet for offense, Jared Dudley, Chuck Hayes, Greg Monroe, Serge Ibaka and Aaron Afflalo were in the top 15 of offensive rating in 2011, with the top 3 being Nene (3), Amir Johnson (2) and #1 highest rated offensive rating in the NBA, Tyson Chandler. Meanwhile LeBron, Kobe, Durant, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, etc. do not crack the top 20. It’s a stat that does not account nearly enough for pure offensive output/production, and simply focuses on efficiency.”

    As you can see, there’s a lot of variables which come into play when using either of these three stats. Like the creator of Roland Rating Mr. Beech says, ““I’ll tell you up front though that I’m not a believer in ‘one number overall player ratings’ since I think player value is not some kind of constant, but is very much dependent on the specific teammates, coaching schemes, role the player is asked to fill, etc.”

    There are some other good advanced stats though that aren’t so complex and as flawed as RAPM, Roland Rating and WS48.

    Take the stat usage rate: “Usage rate tells you the number of possessions a player utilizes while on the court. This statistic is a good indicator of how big of a role a particular player has in the team’s offense.”

    Turner is ranked 105th in the NBA in usage and on average handles 21.8 percent of the team’s possessions. While you stated Turner is 16th in minutes, he’s actually 30th. Using basic logic, the Sixers as a team average 92.8 points per game this season good for 26th in the league. Turner on his best night will only score in the 25-30 range based on his usage. What does this tell you? The Sixers are a team and share the ball. Jrue Holiday is 37th in the league at 25.7%. Thaddeus Young is 143rd at 19.9%. Nick Young 126th at 20.8%. Hawes 20.1%, Richardson 19.2%, Wright 18.6%.

    How do you expect Evan Turner to be among the tops in the league in free-throws when there’s 104 people ahead of him who have more possessions and who’s jobs aren’t to do things such as create offense for his teammates? Also, you can’t make a judgment of a player based on a height range…you make judgments of a player based on someone who’s in a similar situation with a similar body structure and skillset…like your “HOF” Iggy. ET has 70 FTA’s this season…Iggy meanwhile has 64. So I guess that means that Iggy, “isn’t a good enough athlete to blow by a defender who is already giving him space,” like you said about Turner. Also in terms of this argument…Turner also has a higher PER and WS than Iggy this season. How can you explain that? Iguodala’s usage is 20.4% this season, just below Turner and he’s 32nd in the league in minutes. What happened to him, “taking the Nuggets by storm?”

    Btw…Steve…Have you ever heard of a stat called VI or versatility index?

    Let me enlighten you. Versatility index is a statistic that measures a players ability to produce in points rebounds and assists. LeBron James is 1st in the NBA with a rating of 12.3. Jrue Holiday is 23rd in the NBA with a rating of 9 and Evan Turner is 40th with a rating of 8.5. According to Databasebasketball.com, “The average player will score around a five on the index, while top players score above 10.” Being that Turner and Holiday are close to 10, I’d say they’re much better than “average”. Since Thad Young and Jason Richardson can’t create, their versatility index rating’s are 195th and 208th. Dorell Wright is tied with Richardson at 208th.

    As for these statements by you,
    “ET is 21 games in and his shooting will regress.”
    “Jason Richardson is better than Evan Turner, he was last year and the year before and he is this season. Both players are likely to regress but the difference is that Jrich is the better player, get over it.”
    “Jason Richardson is playing really well, that doesn’t mean that it is sustainable.”

    These are all either guesses or wrong. Until you give me empirical evidence that says you can read the future then I’m just going to disregard them. You guessed the Sixers would start the season 2-8 whereas I said they’d be at least 5-5. You said Turner, Holiday didn’t deserve their contracts where Spencer Hawes deserved a bigger one. Why should anyone believe you? Maybe you should spend your time focusing on Versatility index, where currently LeBron, Westbrook, Durant, Rondo, Duncan, Griffin, Love and Varajao (plus randomly Kyle Lowry and Dominique Jones) make up the top 10.

    Better luck next time Steve…I’d advise against even trying.

  59. Rob
    11. December 2012 at 23:33

    Thank you Jeff preach to him.

  60. Jim
    12. December 2012 at 01:00

    Steve: Your words: “My point was he might not sign a contract at all or a lesser one in year 1 as to help his team keep good role players around in an effort to win a championship, AFTER HIS KNEE INJURY.”

    First off, if a player is going to play on an NBA team he has to sign a contract. Rose is expected to play this year, therefore he would have to sign a contract. He could have taken less in year one if he wanted to, but there’s no evidence he would have taken less than the max. It wouldn’t have been difficult for him to use foresight and math to realize that the organization might have to forgo resigning some of their role players if he signed a max contract. He chose to sign for the max.

    After this year, I doubt the front office will value Nick Young more than OJ Mayo. Mayo will likely decline his player option for next year and become a free agent this year, but I don’t think he signs with Sixers.

    I watched enough of the games to know that Jrue hasn’t been outplayed by the point guards he played against 70% of the time. If you bothered to watch any of the games, you might come to the same conclusion. Or maybe I’m giving you too much credit.

    You STILL haven’t come up with a player that the Sixers could realistically signed using the money used to extend Jrue.

  61. Steve Toll
    12. December 2012 at 11:16

    John H.

    34.4 3pt% as a 20/21 year old for Thaddeus Young, you are flat out wrong.

    Joe,
    Jrue has been outplayed or had a stalemate in his matchups something like 70% of the time this season. WS48 is just a stat but it a barometer of sorts and if a player has 1.5x WS48 as another player, it’s pretty close to impossible for the 1.5x guy to not be more effective per minute. That is where I try to give Jrue the benefit of the doubt. Case in point: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=holidjr01&y1=2013&p2=lowryky01&y2=2013

    I never said it is be all end all, but it along with other stats, is a pretty good measuring stick.

    Ceirons,
    That is your opinion and it is factually incorrect.
    I was a starter on a Group IV SJ Championship team as a Sophomore (ahead of a 3 year Div 1 starter at a BCS School), and multiple All-Conference selection in football. I started varsity on the #3 and #1 Wrestling teams in the State of New Jersey, my Junior and Senior Year(didn’t wrestle as a sophomore) both of whom were Nationally Ranked, 13th and 22nd I believe. I was also the ONLY 2x Winner in the of Shillelagh Award of Wrestling teams coached by Gary Papa, http://www.southjerseynews.com/varsity/vl042705a.htm , which went to the toughest SOB on the team, which included multiple state champions and a kid who got a football Scholarship to Notre Dame the years that I won it.

    Louie and Hitzy,
    I disagree, Nick Young is better. He has better shooting form and basketball is about scoring, so I think Nick Young is better becuase he shoots better. Plus Nick Young is almost as tall as Lebron, I think, so they are probably close on defense. So Nick is better because he is a greatest shooting player in the NBA, that is why he is better than Lebron.

    J. Mcmenamin,
    I said Hawes deserved a Longer deal. Jason Richardson measures out higher in every advanced metric except “VI”. I gave credit to ET for creating for others and avoiding turnovers. “Godismyjudgeok.com” is a credible source? 20 Game Sample Size and are you honeslty impyling that ET > Iguodala? DENVER HAS PLAYED THE TOUGHEST SCHEDULE IN THE NBA, when you factor in Home and Away Games. Philadelphia has BY LEAPS AND BOUNDS played the EASIEST Schedule in the entire NBA.

    Jason Richardson for the last 3 years has a better PER, WS48, WP48, Offensive:Defensive Rating, RAPM, Roland Rating, +/- and overall counterpart data than Evan Turner.

    He is superior, it’s not close as evidenced by being superior in every advanced metric by a considerable amount, except for VI. And if you can’t understand how ET is like %100 to seriously regress, there is no helping you.

    Randomly, Kyle Lowry is high on the “VI”??? I coulda told you he’d be super high on that just by your explanation of that. Kyle Lowry is like awesome at basketball, which I have been saying forever.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=holidjr01&y1=2013&p2=lowryky01&y2=2013

    And how about my boy Varejao. Like I said, Dolt

    FYI Jrue has the same VI as Jordan Crawford, ET the same as Jameer Nelson.

  62. Steve Toll
    12. December 2012 at 11:31

    Jim,

    This is a direct quote “Rose is expected to play this year”.

    Here is a quote from every person in Chicago, “Nobody expected DRose to go charging in the lane up 10 with 1 minute to go in Game 1 of the 76ers game”

    DRose might of taken less under the circumstances but he didn’t have the chance because Rose was signed early. He knew that signing a max contract would keep his team from seriously contending for a championship going forward even after recently signing a $250,000,000 deal with Adidas and he took the $. As a non-Chicago fan I am very happy he took a max deal.

    As for Nick Young and OJ Mayo, I was the first person to write and this was in a previous article, paraphrasing “I can’t believe the team valued SwaggyP above Mayo”

    Please give a breakdown of the matchups between Jrue and Felton (2x), Rondo (3x), Knight (2x), Lowry, Calderon (2x), Jennings, Dragic, Westbrook, Irving, Pargo, Barea, Ridnour, Lawson, Vasquez, Collison, Dominique Jones, Kemba Walker, Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, and Kirk Hinrich….. in your honest opinion. You can use a simple measuring tool like Win, Lose, Draw/Tie

    I have it scored 9 Wins, 12 Losses, 6 Draws

  63. haygood
    12. December 2012 at 11:36

    Mr. Ryan (Toronto)

    In your opinion, based off what has happened so far in the season, who is the likely MVP winner? Is LeBron still the front-runner, especially with Durant improving his defense and playmaking and putting up stats comparable to LeBron?

    Michael Wallace (2:40 PM)ESPN

    My top five right now, at the quarter point of the season, would be LeBron, Durant, Chris Paul, Zach Randolph and Jrue Holiday.

  64. Steve Toll
    12. December 2012 at 12:49

    Haygood,

    How can you be the NBA MVP and the 4th best PG in your own division?

  65. Jim
    12. December 2012 at 13:01

    Steve:

    Here’s a quote from you: “He knew that signing a max contract would keep his team from seriously contending for a championship going forward even after recently signing a $250,000,000 deal with Adidas and he took the $.” That is in agreement with what I said in my last post and a contradiction to what you posted earlier about Rose taking less than the max. Nice work.

    Nobody really cares if you were the first person to write that the team values Nick Young over Mayo. Assuming that Mayo was at all interested in signing with the Sixers, of course it was a mistake that they signed Nick Young over him.

    Another quote from you: “They did make a mistake, as Holiday isn’t an All-Star and barely a top 15 point who has been outplayed 70% of the time this year”. Then you followed it with this breakdown of Jrue’s match-ups against opposing point guards this year. “I have it scored 9 Wins, 12 Losses, 6 Draws”

    Do you see how those numbers add up? If you said that he’s been outplayed 70% of the time (which there’s no way he has been) then he would have had to had more “losses” than 12. According to those numbers he’s only been outplayed 44% of the time. You try to make your arguments with stats only and you can’t even do math right. Whoops …

  66. Joe
    12. December 2012 at 13:28

    Harry,

    Thank you!

    Steve Toll,

    You didn’t answer my concerns with your response to my comment. What I wanted to know was whether you personally, as a statistics expert, had delved into the calculation of the stats that you quote and could vouch for their validity. Your logic seems to be – ‘if a player has a WS48 of 1.5x that of another player, he must be better.’

    I take issue with this because you are taking for granted that WS48 is meaningful and that you trust it as a measure. I’m not so sure, though – allow me to explain:

    I went onto basketball-reference.com and dropped the data on the team pages for the Raptors and the Sixers into a spreadsheet.

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2013.html
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2013.html

    All I did was sum the WS columns for the Raptors and the Sixers. The numbers are interesting, because according to the WS measure, the Raptors should have won 6.3 games by now and the Sixers should have won 9.6.

    However, the Raptors have only won 4 games, so we have an overforecast of 57.5% (6.3/4 – 1), and in the case of the Sixers an underforecast of exactly 20% (9.6 / 12 – 1).

    I have only used two examples here, but it would appear on this evidence that WS does a poor job of describing a player’s effectiveness on the court. It could be the case that I have picked two anomalies and that it in general is very accurate, but in this example I would argue that it is inappropriate to use WS (and naturally WS48) to prove your point.

    What I don’t want you to do now is say something to the effect of “yes but Jrue also scores badly in RAPM, Roland Rating, PER” and so on and so forth. My point is that when you actually look at the numbers that you are using as the backbones of your argument you can very quickly find that they are not fit for task.

    This is the fundamental issue with what you are doing – the metrics that you use were calculated by analysing an extremely large quantity of data – we’re talking millions of minutes logged, hundreds of thousands of shots taken, tens of thousands of blocks – you get my point! To then transpose these measures onto a much smaller sample size (for example, the 806 minutes that Jrue has logged this season) can lead to some very erratic, unpredictable results.

    If you could back up your arguments by doing this kind of analysis I think your articles would have a great deal more credibility.

    Kind regards,

    Joe.

  67. Louie
    12. December 2012 at 14:09

    You may not realize it, but this is on par to everything you’ve been saying this season as far as ridiculousness goes.
    Nick young may be a better shooter, but he is far too inconsistent, and does not have as much speed as lbj, or as much strength, which is something you discounted with you’re weak basketball IQ and I ability to read what I said about Lebron. Since Lebron is much better in every other category besides 3 point shooting( by a narrow margin), LBJ is better.

  68. Rob
    12. December 2012 at 14:16

    Why do you think guys will just sign anywhere for lower money? O.J. Mayo would have never signed the deal he got here, he signed a deal like that so he would be on a competitive team and so he could re-vitalize his career. Not to mention they had no depth at the 2 guard at that point, we did hence there wasn’t as much opportunity. Players will sign contracts that are below market value for potential contenders no one has ever claimed the 76ers are so why you feel you could just sign anyone for below market level is crazy. Your boy Lou Williams would not sign the offer that Atlanta gave him here. Do you really believe we didn’t offer that? He wanted a long term deal from us we moved on with a short term deal in nick young, resulting in Lou settling. These things are common sense although not seen on a advanced stats sheet so I can’t expect you to know it.

  69. Steve Toll
    12. December 2012 at 14:36

    For anyone keeping score at Home…..

    PER
    Lebron: 29.1 (1st)
    Durant: 27.6 (2nd)
    CP3: 25.3 (6th)
    Lowry: 20.5 (26th)
    Lou : 19.9 (32nd)
    Jrue : 18.2 (50th)

    WIN SHARES 48, Average is .099
    Lebron: .257
    Durant: .279
    CP3: .270
    Lowry: .139
    Jrue: .093
    Lou: .175

    Wins Produced 48, Average is .099
    Lebron: .266
    Durant: .312
    CP3: .328
    Lowry: .178
    Jrue: .109
    Lou: .127

    Regularized Adjusted +/-
    Lebron: 1st
    Durant: 6th
    CP3: 2nd
    Lowry: 51st
    Jrue 105th
    Lou: 107th

    Roland Rating (CP3, Lowry and Lou have starter level producers they share minutes with in Bledsoe, Calderon, Harris)
    Lebron: +10.1
    Durant: +22.1
    CP3: +7.4
    Lowry: +1.3
    Jrue: +5.3
    Lou: -1.7

    Versatility Index
    Lebron: 1st
    Durant: 4th
    CP3: 14th
    Lowry: 4rd
    Jrue: 24th
    Lou: 90th

    Offensive Rating:Defensive Rating
    Lebron 120:105 (+15)
    Durant 122:101 (+21)
    CP3 125:101 (+24)
    Lowry 109:106 (+3)
    Jrue 103:106 (-3)
    Lou 112:103 (+9)

  70. Louie
    12. December 2012 at 15:33

    I forgot to mention, lbjs speed and strength make him a better defender than swaggyp. He also has a much higher basketball iq, as he is able to read and react to defenses much better than nick young, who gets beat off the dribble too easily.

  71. Tom
    12. December 2012 at 16:20

    Joe,

    You’re being far too kind. I have a suspicion that Toll doesn’t even understand the basics of linear regression. He said on another article that his stats education “comes from the streets.”

    Steve,

    I probably still have some notes buried somewhere on regression analysis if you’d like to try and understand why WS48 works and, in some cases, doesn’t work. Of course you would have to combine that knowledge with your basketball “knowledge.” Sorry about being an ass, but you’re making damning statements about other people’s careers based on statistics you don’t even understand.

  72. Louie
    12. December 2012 at 20:38

    Everyone,

    I have a bet for Steve. If turners shooting %s stay within a range of 10% and the Sixers make the playoffs, you have to leave this website. If they don’t, I’ll admit that you know more about basketball than me, and will leave this website, and stop humiliating you. Deal?

  73. Steve Toll
    13. December 2012 at 02:58

    Joe,

    Fact or Fiction: The most effective players over the course of a season do well in stats like PER, WS48, WP48, RAPM, Roland Rating and along with all that, consistently outplay their opponents.

    I use it as a measuring stick for my writing but only because, it is readily available for everyone to see and easy to make comparisons. The work that I do on my own is integrated into articles somewhat but I am under no circumstances going to openly divulge all of that info to the public.

    As for Jrue Holiday, it takes a certain level of incompetence to view him as anywhere close to elite so far this season, I’ve made that clear. When you only outplay 30% of your opposition, that should be enough information but clearly it’s not.

    As for my credibility, 62 more regular season games to go. Like I said, I’ve been the most accurate writer about the 76ers and I don’t see that changing. If you would like to point me to someone whom you view as more credible, I’d like to read his stuff.

    Before you make a suggestion please note what I’ve said about the 76ers starting with: Letting Lou walk was a mistake, Brand Amnesty was a mistake, the Hawes+Lavoy deals were not enough years, LOL Kwame, LOL SwaggyP, Wright was a great pickup, Thad has all the tools to be very effective, Harkless has the pedigree of a stud, the Bynum trade was totally botched as in JRich who is old and has a long contract, why did we give up Vucevic instead of Moultrie and the 76ers came out a distant 3rd by any arbitrary onlooker (possibly 4th) , Jrue is average, ET is not good, Meeks was quite good last year and should have been kept. Before the Bynum trade, I had the team at 31-51. To start the season, I had them 38-44 and 4th in the Atlantic Division, Lottery Bound. My article about Bynum’s worth and comparing him to other bigs and their relative value sure looks good right now and a myriad of other things.

    Rob,
    You are free to have that opinion but it is wrong. Mayo and Lou both got less money than SwaggyP, and Philly had as little SG depth as any team to start free agency with 0 players on the roster at SG. Lou is making 5 mil, Mayo 4 mil and SwaggyP is making 5.7 million. Lou has a partially GTD 4th year and Mayo has a player option next season. Lou stood to make at least 2.5 million over the next few seasons if he signed for what SwaggyP did this season on a multi year deal. The Mavericks are not considered “contenders” and Mayo is in a Philly uniform for 5.6 million if it was offered. Or are you saying that Mayo didn’t sign because Philly wasn’t a competitive team going forward? So for someone preaching common sense, it’s surprising how little you have In egards to this topic where it’s borderline flagrant how incorrect you are.

    Louie,
    We are having a Lebron and SwaggyP debate that is supposed to be without any stats involved and you said “Lebron is better in all categories except 3s”. What’s the deal?
    I don’t think that Lebron is faster or stronger, he is just bigger. SwaggyP is the truth and has great shooting form, Lebron doesn’t. basketball is about scoring so Lebron is better
    If the 76ers make the playoffs, I’ll be getting a suite for the first home playoff game (assuming that my parents lend me the money and extend my curfew) as for 10%, LOL but I’d be shocked if ET has a better than 50 TS% by seasons end

  74. Hitzy
    13. December 2012 at 15:18

    Steve, come on scoring isn’t all about shooting! Nick Young is not as good of a defender as Lebron James. Lebron is stronger and faster and better. Lebron can shoot, and get to the hoop and get fouled and has a post game and can do more than just shoot. Nick Young sucks man. Sure he can shoot, so can Jodie Meeks, and he’s outta here, we didn’t want him. This is killing me writing about Lebron cuz I don’t really like him.

  75. Tom
    14. December 2012 at 00:41

    Notice how Steve stopped answering when questions got technical. He’s probably off cramming somewhere trying to understand the math behind his numbers.

  76. Tom
    14. December 2012 at 05:21

    Woops take that last one back. Mods must have been backed up and the response wasn’t posted yet

  77. Jacob
    14. December 2012 at 10:31

    Matt Swiman has not had a article up in a while? Why not give him a article like this instead of Toll???????

  78. Louie
    16. December 2012 at 17:27

    Steve,

    It amazes me that a journalist is this bad at reading. Or maybe your blatantly missing the points. Who knows? Well, your article may be stupid, but it got 77 comments, so congrats on the success of shock value.

  79. Joe
    17. December 2012 at 08:33

    Steve Toll,

    You continue to be hypocritical and dodge the questions that I am asking of you.

    Let me put a question to you – if you are in the field of sports economics and you are designing a metric that assesses a player’s worth, is it not in your interests for it to rank players like Lebron and MJ more highly? That is, you will arrive at various models that will all be statistically valid, but in order to prove your point you will favour the model that makes Lebron the league leader in your metric, and you’ll do this because it proves that it works.

    This makes the metrics – I suspect – problematic for two reasons. The first is that there is an element of cherry picking by the people who designed them. They have chosen models that prove what they thought in the first place. For example, if you read Berri, Schmidt and Brook on Allen Iverson it’s clear that they set out to PROVE that AI was not a net positive for his teams and thus they weren’t beginning from an objective standpoint.

    The second reason is that the models are specifically designed to fit the outliers – they may prove that Lebron is the best player in the league, but there are not many players like Lebron. The result of this is that the metrics be likely to be accurate for a polarised range of players; the very good and the very bad ones. The performance of the players in the middle of the range will be very hard to predict using these advanced stats, and the earlier bit of analysis I did comparing the Raptors and the Sixers (two teams full of average players) goes some way to proving this.

    If you want me to go into more detail (with perhaps some reasonably involved maths) on my above point, do let me know.

    Regarding your point on Jrue, I never said that he was elite in any of my comments – I don’t know why you have brought this up. I do notice that you often contradict yourself – for example by saying that Jrue has only outplayed 30% of his competition so far this season, but also that Turner’s production will dip as sample sizes increase. Do you not see the hypocrisy in disparaging Jrue in spite of a small sample size, and disparaging Turner BECAUSE of a small sample size?

    I’m was not asking you to qualify yourself by simply quoting your predictions for this season as you do in your final paragraph to me on your most recent comment; what I was asking you to do (and continue to ask you to do because you have still not provided a satisfactory answer) is tell me why you hold these advanced stats you use in such high regard when you don’t appear to have validated them and you are unwilling to question them. What basis do you have for believing that they are a good measure of players’ effectiveness on the court? To say that the most effective players do well in them is a misnomer, because that’s akin to saying that lots of people believe in ghosts so we all should to.

    I leave you with an example of advanced stats not working for a player in the midrange. I’ve only checked these out quickly because I’m pushed for time, but here are a few facts I found interesting on Bruce Bowen’s eight seasons with the Spurs:

    0 seasons with a PER higher than 15 (best was 9.5 in 2004-05)
    1.67 AST:TO ratio
    2 seasons with a WS48 of higher than 0.100
    8 playoff appearances
    Starter for 7 consecutive 50 win teams (bench player in 2008-09)
    3 rings.

    Kind regards,

    Joe.

  80. CG
    17. December 2012 at 09:18

    Lol, Toll is such a token traffic ringer…

  81. Steve Toll
    17. December 2012 at 22:12

    Joe,

    Actually it was their “Hypothesis” about Iverson…

    Bruce Bowen LOL

    De-Validate the stats and I might respond

  82. Sean
    18. December 2012 at 17:35

    Steve, your articles are crazy. but i cant stop reading.

  83. sean bonner
    20. December 2012 at 01:08

    The only better than bad publicity is no publicity. Steve Toll for all of his flaws has a deeper understanding of what he is doing that any of his readers. His numerous critics feel compelled to lash out at him as if he is trashing a member of his family. As bad as his critics say he is they can not dispute he is the most widely read and compelling figure on the site. In the end to quote the great Bill Parcells “you are what you record says you are”. The way things are trending for the Sixers leaving all of the bickering aside, it appears that Steve Toll is closer to being right about the Sixers 2012/2013 than his many detractors. The truth is the ultimate defense. There is plenty of season left but its looking bleak for the Sixers just as Mr. Toll predicted.

  84. Jeff McMenamin
    20. December 2012 at 20:58

    Thanks, but no thanks R.J. Toll (most likely Steve’s brother). Why try disguising your name as Sean Bonner?

    The Sixers are without three of their four best players, one of which hasn’t played a game this season.

    The writers of this site made predictions on the season based on the information we had received, which was Bynum being out at most a month to start the season.

    Obviously him not playing until February is going to kill the Sixers record. Any team with physical post duo’s is going to give the Sixers all they can handle. With Jrue and now Evan being out, is it really surprising that the Sixers have lost five straight?

    Put those two back in the lineup and any game will be a toss-up. Put Bynum back in the lineup and the W column will start to fill up regularly.

    My adjusted prediction is that the Sixers slip in as a seven seed in the playoffs and reach the Eastern Conference Finals. With Bynum the Sixers are better than the Knicks, but still worse than the Heat.

    Mr. Toll predicted the Sixers to be horrible with those three players healthy, obviously that wasn’t the case until Holiday got injured.

  85. Steve Toll
    20. December 2012 at 21:39

    Jeff,

    Is it now policy to potentially give out the real names of people who write in the comment section?

    I don’t have a brother, like you I am slumming it on the East Coast while my sibling is living the good life in LA.

    Like I have said before, you are the ultimate fan. Do you have any understanding of the stuff that you actually say? You want it to be one way but it’s the other.

    Health is an integral part of basketball, keep acting like that doesn’t count.

    My predictions for the 76ers have been clear since the beginning of the offseason, not just before the start of the season. I have continually had the team pegged somewhere between 31-51 and 38-44, assuming there isn’t some extreme positive variance for the 76ers.

    Let’s play fact or fiction, please please please please humor me…..

    Philadelphia has had the easiest schedule in the NBA when factoring in opponents and Home-Away games.

    Jrue Holiday has outplayed 50+% of his opposition when he has been on the court.

    Now that Bargnani is hurt, and once Holiday returns; Toronto is better than Philly.

    Your adjusted prediction isn’t based on any analytical models but eye test.

    Thaddeus Young is the best player not named Andrew Bynum.

    After 41 games, the 76ers will have more than 18 wins.

    By your “adjusted prediction” you have the 76ers getting into the playoffs as the 7th seed and beating the Knicks in the 1st round, then beating the Hawks in round 2 before losing to the Heat in the ECF.

    All things considered, Steve Toll, has been the most accurate writer in the world about the 76ers since his articles have started being posted on Philadunkia.

    That’s 8 fact or fictions, I look forward to your answers. Feel free to expand on your answers as I am open to enlightenment.

  86. Richard Toll
    20. December 2012 at 22:06

    Jeffie, You are a bad boy. You are giving out wrong information on my idenity and that petty and small minded. Why would you do that Jeffie. You didn’t rebut any of my comments. Steve is the most widely read and compelling writer on the site. You apparently have a hard time accepting that fact. Are you jealous of Steve. I say, yes. I have noticed you don’t address facts, they bounce right off your head. Focus on what is written not who writes it. You have no idea who I am and how many people can access an rjtoll email address. You will have to raise your game to compete w Steve instead of sneaking around and trying to put out what you think is my name, when it is clear, that is contrary to what the website is all about. Sean Bonner

  87. Jeff McMenamin
    20. December 2012 at 22:50

    Steve,

    When your name is R.J. Toll on a site with a writer named Steve Toll it’s easy to assume.

    As for slumming, I live in Center City sir. You can make your own assumptions on that.

    Haaaa to the third statement. I’m a fan as much as I’m an analyst. If you’re not a fan of the NBA and you’re an analyst than there’s a problem. You have to actually WATCH the games in order to analyze them. As I’ve said before and I’ll say a trillion more times, stats don’t tell you everything. The NBA is more about match-ups than stats.

    I’m not acting like health doesn’t count, I’m acting like it definitely counts. With a healthy Bynum, Holiday, Turner this team would have 6 more wins at least.

    As for fact and fiction…

    1. I go by John Hollinger for SOS. Fiction…Sixers had the second easiest schedule…
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/page/2/sort/sos

    2. Jrue Holiday was second in the league in assists before he got injured and the Sixers have dropped four-straight in horrible fashion since his injury. I say fiction, those numbers don’t lie.

    3. Fiction Toronto is far worse than Philly.

    4. Kind of fact but mostly fiction? My predictions are based on watching basketball and knowing the Sixers team make-up. I said before preseason we’re setup like the Magic who made it to the NBA finals. Based on how they’ve played and watching every game this season, I’ve judged we’re severely undersized and in dire need of a post-defender. Bynum fixes both problems and Jrue will put up even greater numbers with Bynum back. It’s kind of fact though because I don’t break things down with analytical models. That’s not how I roll.

    5. Fact. Thad will only get better as well when Bynum takes the court and has played the most consistent on offense and the glass all year.

    6. No question a fact. Jrue and ET could return tomorrow night, which means W’s.

    7. Fact. Amare returning=Team cancer. Hawks are going to have a worse record than the Pacers by seasons end so the Sixers will beat the Pacers.

    8. LOL. The biggest fiction.

    8.

  88. Steve Toll
    21. December 2012 at 01:42

    Where did you get the RJ Toll thing from the Sean Bonner post.

    LA >>>>>> Center City Philly >>> My parents basement.

    You are not an analyst by any stretch of the imagination. Here is a question an analyst of a specific team would know off the top of his head….. I certainly do

    How many 2 for 1 opportunities have the 76ers missed out on this year and out of how many opportunities?

    You have the 76ers as 18-8 with a healthy Bynum, with 0 evidence….. You want it to be one way but it’s the other.

    As for fact or fiction:

    #1. Through 26 games a .003 difference on SOS while playing 3 more home games means that Philly has had the easiest schedule. 0-1

    #2. Holiday has barely outplayed 1/3 of the guys he has lined up against. 0-2

    #3. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings/_/page/2/sort/sos
    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1213.htm
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=bargnan01&y1=2013&p2=davised01&y2=2013&p3=johnsam01&y3=2013&p4=valanjo01&y4=2013
    Now that Bargnani is out, it won’t be long before Toronto has a better record than Philly but they are better right now. 0-3

    #4. You do 0 analytical work and just assume your eye test works and say things like “This team is set up like the magic” which is absurddddd.

    Haaaaaaaaaaaaa and I won’t even get into the rest of the personnel because it will be too funny, just D12vsBynum and coaching.

    The difference between Bynum and D12 is that Howard is slightly superior on offense and defensively is ridiculously better than Bynum

    7th, 4th, 4th, 6th and 11th was theMagic’s Defensive Ranking in 12,11,10,09,08

    15th,13th,10th,13th,19th have been the LAL Defensive Rankings in 12,11,10,09,08

    DC also isn’t capable of running an offense like SVG did, because he is a far inferior offensive coach.

    Defensively, SVG had a massive advantage in having Dwight Howard which nullifies any defensive coaching advantage DC might have from a game theory standpoint or real life because the difference between Bynum and D12 is massive, so it’s a negative on defense compared to the Magic.

    The team also doesn’t have a stretch 4, unless you count Dorell but he would only play 15 minutes a night max anyway, if DC ran a Magic type offense which he doesn’t.

    So basically this team has an ill fitting defensive minded coach when the team is set up to outscore its opponents but doesn’t actually play like the Magic on offense or defense. 0-4

    #5 Congrats, you got the Thad question right. 1-4

    #6 The team currently has 12 wins. The 76ers will be underdogs in minimum 11 of the next 15 games. You say they will have more than 18 wins. That means you “project” this team to go AT WORST 7-8 over the next 15 games.

    They play San Antonio 2x, Brooklyn 2x, Toronto 2x, OKC, ATL, Memphis, LAL, Golden State, Houston, New Orleans (with Anthony Davis) , Portland game is 2nd night of a B2B+3rd game in 4 nights, Phoenix on January 2nd is a B2B after spending New Years Eve in LA and playing LAL on New Years.

    Where are these 7 or more wins coming!!???!! 1-5

    #7 Are you taking crazy pills? ATL has 1 more win than Indiana in 3 less games. ATL has had a far more difficult schedule, and Granger is out until February.

    But, let’s play the Hypothetical game and assume that Indiana is the 3 seed. Indiana has a better rotation at PG-SG-SF-PF through 48 minutes while Philly has an advantage with Bynum > Hibbert at C. It’s literally unbelievable you somehow have Philly winning that series. If that miracle happens, it’s on to the Knicks.

    NYK has a better coach and is better at EVERY POSITION over 48 minutes, and you have Philly winning that series too. You are now 1-6 in fact or fiction.

    #8, You say fiction but fail to send me links of someone who has written more accurately about the 76ers than I have over the past 6 months.

    That’s very impressive how you managed to miss 7 of 8.

  89. Richard Toll
    21. December 2012 at 07:02

    Jeffie, Do you have no sense of humor. When Steve’s says “we are slumming it on the east coast” he is clearly joking. Congratulations on being able to live in Center City, I’m sure we are all impressed. You seem to insist you know who I am. You have no proof of who I am and nobody on here cares anyway. Why don’t you address what I said instead of focusing on my name. BTW Injuries are a huge factor in pro sports and every team in the NBA sufferies from injuries every year. You have to take injuries into account when accessing a team prospects. It is very difficult to do but doesn’t every coach say “next man up” when somebody goes down. That’s why depth is very important in pro sports.

  90. Louie
    21. December 2012 at 07:57

    I guess stupidity runs in the family with the Tolls

  91. Joe
    21. December 2012 at 08:38

    Steve Toll,

    Thank you for your kind response.

    Please see below a correlation matrix for some advanced stats:

    RR PER NRtg WS/48 RAPM VI
    RR x 0.78 0.57 0.72 0.82 0.62
    PER 0.78 x 0.59 0.80 0.77 0.75
    NRtg 0.57 0.59 x 0.94 0.68 0.23
    WS/48 0.72 0.80 0.94 x 0.79 0.47
    RAPM 0.82 0.77 0.68 0.79 x 0.63
    VI 0.62 0.75 0.23 0.47 0.63 x

    NB RR = Roland Rating, NRtg = ORtg – DRtg

    I’ve just thrown this together quickly for the 2011-12 season and hopefully it looks okay on this page, but if not you can drop it into Excel and it should look okay in there.

    What I would highlight is that the average Pearson rank correlation is 0.67, and the standard deviation is 0.17; hence although there are value to these stats they are not interchangeable and it could be that a player who scores very well in one particular stat could score badly in another. For example, there is a very weak correlation between NRtg and VI, meaning that a player could score well in one and badly in another which creates vast potential for cherry-picking to prove a point.

    Although there are strong correlations in there (for example, WS/48 and PER at 0.80) there is considerable noise in the data. For example, Monta Ellis has a strong PER of 18.6 (24% above average) but a very low WS48 of 0.054 (46% below average). On the flipside, Kyle Korver had a PER of 13.6 (9% below average) but a WS/48 of 0.172 (72% above average).

    I do think there are value in these metrics, and they do fit well overall, but I hope these examples highlight to you the fact that they are compiled using huge masses of data and then when we use them for one or two players in isolation we may find that they are not fit for purpose.

    This is not a “de-validation” (or invalidation, whichever you prefer) per se, because I’ve done a bit of analysis on some of the stats and they performed well. Rather, this is to highlight both the noisiness of the data and the fact that some of the advanced metrics will draw us to different conclusions on particular player – for every stat to prove one thing about a player, another will be out there to disprove it.

    Thanks for reading,

    Joe.

  92. Steve Toll
    21. December 2012 at 13:10

    Joe,

    Good Stuff

    There are inherent weaknesses in all the numbers, that I recognize. I also produce my own set of numbers, which I have released a bit, that gave a approximate total value to last years players, at least the top 50.

    I do my own work when evaluating basketball that I’m (for obvious reasons) unwilling to just lay out for public consumption.

    People go crazzzzzyyyyy when I say things like Jarrett Jack > Jrue, among other things but I am okay with that.

    Evaluating what things mean, is more important than the information itself. I pride myself on evaluating public and private data; along with having a mega-elite eye test

  93. Sean Bonner
    22. December 2012 at 11:58

    I have heard that stupidity is in the DNA of everyone over the age of eight called Louie. Trash Steve Toll all you want but what have I ever written that merits you calling me stupid. Sean Bonner Aka Richard Toll

  94. Louie
    24. December 2012 at 13:52

    Sean( or whatever your real name is),
    Wow! What a great comeback! (I’m being sarcastic if you can tell)

  95. Louie
    24. December 2012 at 22:39

    You agree with Steve. Nuff said.

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