WHAT IS TURNER’S TRADE VALUE???

Posted by: C. Smith
01/15/13 10:12 am EST

Lost in all the hoopla surrounding Andrew Bynum shooting some free throws and actually breaking a sweat on the basketball court was an interesting article by philly.com’s John Mitchell in which he stated that the Sixers should “at least explore the possibility” of trading Evan Turner.  Trading Turner is a topic that has been written about and debated many times here at Philadunkia over the last year.

Of course Mitchell’s article indicated that Sacarmento’s problem child DeMarcus Cousins would be his top choice for the Sixers to receive in return for Turner.  Again, the Turner for Cousins trade is another topic that has been discussed at length here at Philadunkia.com.

Inspired by the “trade Turner” momentum that continues to build here in the comments section on Philadunkia and Mitchell’s article, I reached out to my colleagues and contacts in various NBA front offices to discover what exactly is Evan Turner’s worth on the NBA trade market.

After the jump, I’ll reveal what those NBA folks had to say.

First and foremost I want to note that all of the following comments were given to me on the condition of anonymity.  But as with all posts I write quoting “sources” or “contacts”, these are people I have known for years and who’s opinions on the NBA I trust a lot.

When I asked my contacts if there was any chance the Sixers could assemble a package around Turner that would pry Cousins out of Sacramento, one Western Confernce Director of Pro Personnel told me, “No chance.  Cousins isn’t that big of an issue.  He would literally have to burn down the arena, for me to simply unload him for Turner”.

An Eastern Conference pro scout sent me an email reply saying, “Cousins is significantly better now and has a much higher upside.  I know he has maturity issues, but there is still no way I do that deal.”

A third contact of mine, a Western Conference scout had this take, “First of all, it is very difficult to trade a big for a small in this League.  But the biggest problem is that ET is not a star.  Cousins  in the right environment can mature and in a bigger market he could become a star in this League.  So, I wouldn’t even consider that deal.”

Finally, one Eastern Confernce advanced scout asked me if, “I was kidding.”  And then followed that comment with, “Are they really writing that in the papers in Philly or just on the Internet?”

The Western Confernce Director of Pro Personnel also had this to say, “With the Kings being sold and the Maloofs getting out, I find it hard to believe that any new potential ownership group would allow the team’s biggest talent and the player with the most star potential to be traded.”

Okay, so it seems that we can put to bed the Turner for Cousins topic once and for all.  But it was nice to dream about it.

A little more on Turner overall from my emails and phone conversations.

Eastern Confernce advanced scout:  “He’s a nice player, but that’s it.  Some of us thought he’s would be better suited for the point guard spot in this League, but in limited action at the 1, that has not proven to be true.  He still needs the ball in his hands to be successful, but I wouldn’t want him running a team for me.”

Western Conference Director of Pro Personnel:  “Even though Turner is having a nice year, I also think he’s been exposed defensively this season.  With Iguodala guarding the primary scorer every night last year, Turner thrived guarding second and third options.  This season he’s been asked to fill Iguodala’s role and his lack of lateral quickness has really come to the front.”

Discuss…


 
 
 

19 Responses to “WHAT IS TURNER’S TRADE VALUE???”

  1. Joe c
    15. January 2013 at 11:01

    Should of just drafted cousins to begin with and this wouldn’t be an issue

  2. Steve Toll
    15. January 2013 at 11:30

    Trading ET for anything of value is impossible. Trading ET for an expiring contract makes 0 sense whatsoever. Here is why, Even if you remove the 6.7 million from the roster for this upcoming offseason, the payroll is still at $40,000,000. Bynum is going to resigned and his salary will be approx. 17.3 million. Leaving the team with AT MOST 2.7 million to replace ET if he is traded for an expiring contract. The current GM doesn’t have the ability to replace ET’s putrid level of production for that little money. It is best that he is kept on board and traded next season for a veteran on a losing team who can help the team win games, assuming that A. the team grabs a stud in this years draft and B. Bynum stays healthy.

    Here is my assessment of ET:

    Evan Turner is actually a much bigger negative this year than his first 2 years because of his increased playing time, so much for the “positional security” theory.

    ET is an abysmal scorer. His TS& is less than 1% above his previous average from his 1st 2 seasons and that is while shooting at an unsustainable rate from 3 and with increased free throw attempts.

    As I have said time and time again, Offensive rebounding is the truest test of rebounding ability. ET is 12th in minutes played and 155th in total offensive rebounds this season, the same amount as, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Andre Miller.

    No player in the history of the NBA is even close to ET when it comes to grabbing defensive rebounds and NOT grabbing offensive rebounds. ET has a career 19.7 DREB% and 2.2 OREB%.

    Dirk Nowitzki has the 2nd biggest difference Off Reb% and Def Reb% in NBA History. With 21.9% DREB and 3.7% OREB.

    The 3rd biggest difference in NBA History is Larry Bird with 22.4 DREB% and 5.9 OREB%

    ET is a good passer from the wing and I would like to see him get some extended burn at PG with Jrue and DWright at the SG-SF.

    Fact of the matter, this year, Of the 150 or so guys who play 24+ mpg (minimum 700 minutes total), it’s easy to view ET in the bottom 20% of those guys and that’s with a positive outlook on things.

  3. Ms. Haygood
    15. January 2013 at 11:31

    I think Milwaukee may be a team I would give a call to. They have a few athletic bigs and can’t play them all and might find value in ET as an option of the bench or a starter next to Jennings next year if Ellis walks

  4. steve toll
    15. January 2013 at 11:58

    Ms. Haygood,

    The only options are Sam Dalembert and Drew Gooden from Milwaukee in a trade for ET.

    MIl would like trade either straight up for ET but it would be a bad trade for Philly long term

    Dalembert is expiring and as I mentioned above, if ET is traded for an expiring deal, that money is getting eaten up by Bynum this offseason. It would be a bad deal.

    Drew Gooden is like Nick Young but he plays PF and has the exact same contract as J-Rich aka signed through 14-15 at nearly 7 million per season and will be 32 at the start of next season

  5. Ms. Haygood
    15. January 2013 at 12:39

    @Steve no chance the Bucks will swap Mbah a Boute for ET when they have Sanders, Henson, Ekpe, and Ersan to build around in the front court? and ET could be that bigger guard they may feel they need

  6. Rob Y
    15. January 2013 at 12:44

    Turner is terrible even when you play him at the PG. When he plays PG, he just holds onto the ball until the shot clock goes down to 13 or 14 trying to design a play and simply destroys the greatest strength we have as a team which is our speed and an up-tempo style (at least it was last year. I don’t think anyone knows at this point anymore). In general, I think the best teams in the NBA are shifting to this style of play because it is so clearly more efficient than trying to get stuck in a system of slowball.

    This is speaking somewhat irrationally since there is little hope right now but: Personally, I would just give the ball to Jrue every play and tell him to push, dish to Thad for a bunny in the lane, or passit out to one of our unnecessary 3 3point shooters who, in my opinion, are all underperforming and should at least improve slightly as the season goes on. Keep in mind it takes newly structured teams a while to gel and the Sixers might not find this sweet spot until even next year.

    Other than that, ET thinks he’s a real PG but he simply lacks any bit of intelligence, control, or speed to execute. There are times when he makes nice plays but you can find almost any player in the NBA capable of scoring in isolation when he knows he’s the go to guy.

    As for DMC, let’s just put this whole debate to rest. I was fooled into thinking there was any chance of getting him from some 4on4 article written weeks ago and we were all pretty much in La-La land searching for any hope of a chance in the current direction the Sixers are heading in.

    In general though, I still kind of want our team to make the playoffs just so Bynum may find some reason to re-sign this offseason. If we miss (probably), we’ll most likely get somewhere between the 9th-12th pick in the draft, and based on this year’s pool of players, I don’t see any immediate impact guys worth losing for. If I were to bet on it, I’d say there’s like a 20-30% chance Bynum comes back healthy for next season and plays 50+ games relatively injury free in a Sixers uniform (I’d buy him at 20% and sell him at 30%). Other than that, being 4 GB of the 8 seed, I still see some chance (probably somewhere between 10 and 15%) of making the playoffs since I have a hunch that Milwaukee is outplaying their real potential. The Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis just seem like an inefficient combo.

    In general, for next year I would love to see ET, JRich (I like him but not the guy I want on a team like this), DWright, SwaggyP, Lavoy/ pretty much our whole team gone besides Jrue, Thad, Bynum, and I could live having Hawes. Maybe there’s a prayer that Moultrie could develop into a decent 4 even though I haven’t really been following his progress except for the fact he’s putting up decent numbers (10-6*??) in the D-League (hmmm). Realistically, having Jrue, ET, Thad, Hawes, Bynum with JRich, DWright, and Lavoy coming off the bench is a watchable team and maybe top 5 in the East behind Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Pacers/Nets. If we can somehow (miraculously) manage our cap and buy a top 20, efficient FA in the offseason replacing ET or filling in a 4 spot, our team is looking pretty solid. If Bynum can actually be the best center in the league and with all these La-La land, but only really somewhat (probably no chance solutions, including the FA signing), I think the Sixers could stand at about a 8-12% chance of winning a championship for next year. Overall, my only hope would be that we can simply dominate the Heat (only real threat in the East other than Bulls if Rose can somehow be healthy or if PJ Carleismo can turn the Nets around) with Bynum as long as we can find ONE guy to stop Lebron. I’ll worry about DWade next year as he may be slowing.

  7. Adam
    15. January 2013 at 13:28

    What about thad and turner for tyreke and thomas robinson?

  8. Hank
    15. January 2013 at 13:55

    Glad to see a formal article putting to bed that ridiculous pipe dream of Turner for Cousins. Now we can stop reading comments from people who apparently wouldn’t pull the trigger on that deal even if it were on the table.

    Turner is terrible, plain and simple. And Steve is right in that, as his three point shooting regresses to the mean, he will be even more terrible. Personally, though, I don’t see how Bynum’s prospective price tag changes the fact that an expiring contract is significantly more valuable than Evan Turner, who is a net negative to the team. I’d love to ship him for an expiring (maybe snag a second round pick, that could be wishful thinking, though) and go after a player like Corey Brewer, who is currently on the last year of a 3 year, $9 million deal.

  9. Steve Toll
    15. January 2013 at 14:21

    Ms. Haygood,

    I forgot about Mbah a Moute but even still he is a better player on a better contract than ET. Maybe some cash and 2nd rd picks gets it done but its a longshot.

    RobY,

    The motivation for the best teams to have more possessions in a game is because it decreases variance. Example: someone off the street could beat Lebron in a game on 1 on 1 playing to 1 point. Nobody off the street is beating Lebron in a game to 10 points

    DMC isnt getting traded to Philly, he is a mega super elite asset who is currently more valuable than the entire 76er roster+coach+front office.

    Ive said time and time again, if the 76ers make the playoffs, their future is screwed. Its probably screwed anyway but at least there is a small chanxe they grab a stud in the lottery which would be huge.

    The team has misrepresented its cap situation as I’ve made mention for 6 months. If Bynum leaves the team will have less than $13,000,000 to spend on Free Agents this offseason.

    The 76ers need Bynum to be healthy, Jrue to actually become an All-Star (he’s not close), Thad to start shooting 3s and become a true stretch4, ET to not be terrible, J-Rich to find the fountain of youth, Hawes and Lavoy to improve, Draft a stuf in the lottery and then they might get a top 4 seed in the 13-14′ playoffs

  10. Adam
    15. January 2013 at 14:27

    Cousins is bad too. No blocks, stats show hes a reb theif more than a quality rebounder, he shoots 43% as a center..

  11. Steve Toll
    15. January 2013 at 14:37

    Hank,

    The team has no $ to spend this offseason even if ET is traded for an expiring when you factor in Bynums salary and the lottery pick. Add it all up and the team is at $60,000,000 which is about where the salary cap will be and there is no flexibility to do anything.

    While that may be contrary to what you have heard or believe, it is the truth and an issue I have spoken at length about this past offseason

  12. Steve Toll
    15. January 2013 at 14:57

    Adam,

    If you a referring to the ESPN article about rebounding thieves, which must be because I doubt you have watched more than 1 minute of kings games this year, do your best and try to forget it. DMC is an elite offensive rebounder, the truest test of rebounding ability. Stealing rebounds is what ET is best at, he leads the league in uncontested/tipped to/cleared out/stolen rebounds since he entered the NBA

    Because of the unique situation in SAC, DMC gets a bad rap on offense. He is the most mistreated player on offense in the NBA by a pretty wide margin and rarely gets the proper calls on offense in the post. Add in the fact that he doesn’t respect (nor should he) his coaches, most of his teammates, the front office and the owners and you have a guy who is seriously underperforming Even with all of that, he gets to the free throw line a ton. Once things balance out, the team is changed (new owners, new coach, new GM, some new teammates) DMC will start beasting. His motivation is lacking severely right now but that will change.

  13. T. Martin
    15. January 2013 at 18:45

    Honestly, I’d be beyond thrilled to see ET traded for Jason Thompson. THRILLED.

  14. Lennix
    16. January 2013 at 02:22

    nick young and dorrel wright for captain jack and dejuan blair

  15. toady
    16. January 2013 at 14:19

    I actually think ET could have value, but it is all about fit. We don’t have an overall team defense great enough to mask his defense merely being ordinary. However, maybe a trade of say ET, Royal Ivey and Andrew Bynum to Memphis for Rudy Gay, Jarryd Bayless and Hamed Haddadi could work for both teams. Gay isn’t that great of 3pt shooter either and as such Memphis wouldn’t miss it, plus ET is better at passing and rebounding and ET wouldn’t be more than the 4th scoring option there. They also get under the cap (reputedly a big concern to them).
    We get a bonafide scorer to pair with Jrue (so maybe he is not having to force it so often leading to many of the TO’s). This is really where Evan lacks consistency enough for us. We also gain Bayless who could develop into a Lou Williams-lite role and gives a vet PG off the bench. Further Haddadi can continue to keep Bynum’s former seat warm.
    Couple this with a trade of say Thad, Dorrel Wright, Lavoy and Kwame to Detroit for Greg Monroe, Charlie Villanueva, Jonas Jerebko and Kyle Singler and we might even have the makings of a truly decent team.

  16. Steve Toll
    16. January 2013 at 20:02

    Toady,

    The first trade is horrible for the 76ers and the 2nd trade is horrible for Detroit. As for Memphis getting under the cap, they actually take on salary in your proposed trade.

    T. Martin,
    That trade isn’t happening

    Lennix,
    OMG NO

  17. toady
    17. January 2013 at 13:00

    Steve,
    While Memphis would take on a relatively small amounto f salary for the remainder of this year, they would also largely be expiring contracts. At the end of the year, Bynum and Ivey go away and you have a servicable SF in ET (at least for them) at approx. 5 mil/ year. They would be removing Gay’s 16mil/ year contract going forward (along with Haddadi’s, Bayless v. ET roughly evens out.).
    In Detroits case, you are trading a better player (Monroe) for a better overall team. Dorrel Wright takes Singler place and is a definite upgrade. Thad becomes their starting PF. With a true low post presence in Drummond combined with shooters in Wright and Prince, Thad’s true talent as stretch four would be enhanced. Right now, he doesn’t have the space needed to operate consistently wihich makes his size more apparent. Detroit is already used to an undersized Pf in Maxiell. Add in the extreme increase in athleticism and Detroit suddenly becomes a very interesting team. In this scenario, lavoy would be moved to a 3rd string FC role and Kwame would become the 2nd string C who with Detroits current 3rd stringer would be able to keep Drummond from having to suddenly log an extreme amount of minutes (say keep him around 25min/ game). The kicker is also that Wright has an expiring contract which is something Dumars has expressed an interest in. They give him a try this season and if they like it, they try to resign him or if not, go in another direction say like OJ Mayo.

  18. Frank
    18. January 2013 at 00:36

    I would really like to see ET packaged in a deal for Wilson Chandler. Maybe get some other teams involved.

  19. Steve Toll
    18. January 2013 at 09:27

    Toady,

    Rudy Gay is overrated and overpaid. The 76ers are already drawing close to dead at contending in the next few years but a trade for Gay would be a nail in the coffin.

    Detroit isnt trading Greg Monroe. He is an elite asset and good player.

    Justify these trades anyway you’d like but in both trades, somebody gets screwed big time.

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