02/01/13 9:55 am EST
Jrue is an All-Star and Thad has been the best player on the team. It’s clear as night and day, but that doesn’t make it right. Fans of mine know that I don’t think very highly of the average NBA coach and GM. For that reason, this post has nothing to do with Jrue being selected as an All-Star.
Holiday seems like a hard working, nice kid with a good deal of talent, and if he was my best friend, I’d still say the same things to him about my thoughts on his place in the NBA pecking order.
However, the post for that topic is not this one. No, this one is about Jrue and Thad.
Who has been the better player this year, and who is more important to the team’s success?
After the jump, I present the numbers for the entire season.
Thad has played 4 more games than Jrue this year, averaging 2.5 less minutes per game. In the 4 games that Jrue missed the team went 0-4. Thad also had a sub-par stretch of efforts those 4 games. In those 4 games, Thad was a total of -50 on the court. Through Wednesday night’s game, Jrue is -66 on the year and Thad is -27. In games that Jrue has played, Thad is +23. In those 4 games, the opposing teams point guards had 2 good games, and 2 bad games.
Disclaimer: None of these numbers are perfect.
When Thad and Jrue are on the court together, the 76ers are -.4 per 48 minutes.
When Jrue is OFF and Thad is ON, the team is -.9 per 48.
When Jrue is ON and Thad if OFF, the 76ers are a staggering -8.7 per 48 minutes.
On average: When Thad is in any lineup, the 76ers are -7 per 48. When Jrue is in any lineup, -2.1 per 48.
The lineups without Thad are -11.4 per 48, and -6.9 per48 for Holiday.
Looking at offensive : defensive rating, this year Thad is +5 (108:103) and Jrue is -4 (103:107). That is a large contrast, made even bigger knowing the Thad was -50 in the 4 games that Jrue missed.
KD leads the entire NBA at .303 just ahead of Lebron, CP3 and Tyson Chandler. WS48 is a box score measurement of how many “wins” a player produces per 48 minutes.
Win Shares per 48 have Thad at .121, Jrue at .086; Thad has produced 2.1 WS on offense and 2 WS on Defense, Jrue 1.6 offense and 1.3 defense.
RAPM, is a measure of +/-, which considers the team’s lineup and the opponents’ lineup to come up with a value of each player. It measures both offense and defense. Lebron, CP3, Durant and Duncan are the top 4 in RAPM this season at 7.8, 7.3, 6.4, 6.1
Thad has a 2.91 RAPM and Jrue is at .46
Roland Rating is a production measure (a variant of John Hollinger’s PER rating) for a player’s own stats versus the counterpart player on the other team while he is on the court, as well as a simple on court/off court plus minus. Durant, Lebron, CP3, Kobe and Wade have the 5 highest RRs so far in 2013 at 18.4, 16.7, 12.9, 11.6, 11.3
Thad has a RR of 5.5 and Jrue 3.9 so far this year.
Wins produced per 48 is another “wins” metric. It was created by Dave Berri and is a similar type box score metric as WS48. The league leaders in WP48 are CP3 at .351 followed by Durant, Lebron and Tyson Chandler. WP48 and WS48 are similar but calculated differently.
Thad has a .120 WP48 and Jrue has a .110 WP48.
If you have been keeping score at home, and I know you have, here are the results. Thaddeus is superior to Jrue is every single publicly available measuring tool. He clearly has more of an effect on the 76ers than Jrue does by a large margin. He simply rates better in every single thing.
Except for one, Player Efficiency Rating. Jrue has a PER of 19. Thad is at 17.5
I point blank stated before “None of these numbers are perfect”. Looking at all these numbers each and everyone, except PER, show Thad to be a superior/more important player than Jrue. When you also factor in that Thad plays a more important position than Jrue, these numbers become crystal clear. To further illustrate this point, Thad was superior in every category last year and that includes PER. Jrue is an All-Star, but Thad is the man