JRUE vs. THAD: WHO YA GOT?

Posted by: Steve Toll
02/01/13 9:55 am EST

Jrue is an All-Star and Thad has been the best player on the team.  It’s clear as night and day, but that doesn’t make it right.  Fans of mine know that I don’t think very highly of the average NBA coach and GM.  For that reason, this post has nothing to do with Jrue being selected as an All-Star. 

Holiday seems like a hard working, nice kid with a good deal of talent, and if he was my best friend, I’d still say the same things to him about my thoughts on his place in the NBA pecking order. 

However, the post for that topic is not this one.  No, this one is about Jrue and Thad. 

Who has been the better player this year, and who is more important to the team’s success?

After the jump, I present the numbers for the entire season. 

Thad has played 4 more games than Jrue this year, averaging 2.5 less minutes per game.  In the 4 games that Jrue missed the team went 0-4.  Thad also had a sub-par stretch of efforts those 4 games.  In those 4 games, Thad was a total of -50 on the court.  Through Wednesday night’s game, Jrue is -66 on the year and Thad is -27.  In games that Jrue has played, Thad is +23.  In those 4 games, the opposing teams point guards had 2 good games, and 2 bad games.

Disclaimer:  None of these numbers are perfect. 

When Thad and Jrue are on the court together, the 76ers are -.4 per 48 minutes.

When Jrue is OFF and Thad is ON, the team is -.9 per 48. 

When Jrue is ON and Thad if OFF, the 76ers are a staggering -8.7 per 48 minutes.

On average: When Thad is in any lineup, the 76ers are -7 per 48.   When Jrue is in any lineup, -2.1 per 48.  

The lineups without Thad are -11.4 per 48, and -6.9 per48 for Holiday.

Looking at offensive : defensive rating, this year Thad is +5 (108:103) and Jrue is -4 (103:107).  That is a large contrast, made even bigger knowing the Thad was -50 in the 4 games that Jrue missed.

KD leads the entire NBA at .303 just ahead of Lebron, CP3 and Tyson Chandler.  WS48 is a box score measurement of how many “wins” a player produces per 48 minutes.

Win Shares per 48 have Thad at .121, Jrue at .086;  Thad has produced 2.1 WS on offense and 2 WS on Defense, Jrue 1.6 offense and 1.3 defense.

RAPM, is a measure of +/-, which considers the team’s lineup and the opponents’ lineup to come up with a value of each player.  It measures both offense and defense.  Lebron, CP3, Durant and Duncan are the top 4 in RAPM this season at 7.8, 7.3, 6.4, 6.1

Thad has a 2.91 RAPM and Jrue is at .46

Roland Rating is a production measure (a variant of John Hollinger’s PER rating) for a player’s own stats versus the counterpart player on the other team while he is on the court, as well as a simple on court/off court plus minus.  Durant, Lebron, CP3, Kobe and Wade have the 5 highest RRs so far in 2013 at 18.4, 16.7, 12.9, 11.6, 11.3

Thad has a RR of 5.5 and Jrue 3.9 so far this year.

Wins produced per 48 is another “wins” metric.  It was created by Dave Berri and is a similar type box score metric as WS48.  The league leaders in WP48 are CP3 at .351 followed by Durant, Lebron and Tyson Chandler.  WP48 and WS48 are similar but calculated differently.

Thad has a .120 WP48 and Jrue has a .110 WP48.

If you have been keeping score at home, and I know you have, here are the results.  Thaddeus is superior to Jrue is every single publicly available measuring tool.  He clearly has more of an effect on the 76ers than Jrue does by a large margin.  He simply rates better in every single thing.

Except for one, Player Efficiency Rating.  Jrue has a PER of 19. Thad is at 17.5

I point blank stated before “None of these numbers are perfect”.  Looking at all these numbers each and everyone, except PER, show Thad to be a superior/more important player than Jrue.  When you also factor in that Thad plays a more important position than Jrue, these numbers become crystal clear.  To further illustrate this point, Thad was superior in every category last year and that includes PER.  Jrue is an All-Star, but Thad is the man


 
 
 

43 Responses to “JRUE vs. THAD: WHO YA GOT?”

  1. Rob Y
    1. February 2013 at 10:28

    I think most people believe Jrue is better than Thad because Jrue is an All-Star this year, has more potential than Thad simply because he is only 22, Jrue makes more highlight reel plays, while Thad is more of a blue-collar player, not flashy, and experienced some awkward initial years as a pro on a weaker Sixers team that Sixers’ fans were used to during the A.I era. I agree with these people in the sense that Jrue deserves to be an All-Star over Thad because there are fewer talented PGs in the East than there are SFs/PFs. In my opinion, Jrue completely deserves to make this year’s All-Star game (although it may be his last) and has been the focal point of the team. Nonetheless, you provide some great evidence why Thad is better than Jrue. Personally, I would rather have Jrue for the next 5 years because I feel he hasn’t yet reached his ceiling and Thad can be replaced by the more available talent pool in the SF/PF market. I will add more later…nice article.

  2. Rob Y
    1. February 2013 at 10:41

    In addition, I think each of these advanced metrics may be slightly off since it is almost impossible to argue that LeBron isn’t by far and away the most valuable player in the NBA. KD is the obviously 2nd most valuable. After LeBron’s holyness and KD’s greatness, I would give CP3 the third place vote, still very far behind KD, and a close 4th place race between Kobe and Melo (a volatile/difficult player to pinpoint exactly how good he is). Also I would throw DWade in there because you can’t yet claim he is over the hill and even Tim Duncan cannot be overlooked either as old as he may be.

    For personal pride’s sake, I have never outright stated Jrue > Thad.

    One interesting stats from the ESPN rating has Jrue with the 10th best rating beyond the guys mentioned above + Irving, David Lee, Westbrook, and Harden. Thad is T-46th:

    http://espn.go.com/nba/seasonleaders

  3. Jeff McMenamin
    1. February 2013 at 10:46

    Jrue is off for a little under 10 min a game, Thad is off for a little over 12 min a game.

    Larger sample size for Thad.

    In general…If your team is missing its best big man in basketball it is a lot worse off than missing its best guard. Examples a plenty.

    Thad’s missed no games this season so there’s no way to judge things the other way around. Team would probably perform even worse.

    Everyone on the teams rating goes down when Thad’s off the court. This doesn’t mean that Thad is a superior player, it means he’s more valuable to the team at this point and time. When you have Spencer Hawes and Lavoy Allen filling the paint in Thad’s absence, teams can take the ball to the rack at will. Point null and void.

    Also, you clearly showed how Thad isn’t the same player without Jrue.

    You forget to mention stats like…Jrue averages 4+ ppg more than Thad, 7+ apg more than Thad and has gotten to the FT line nearly 20 more times than Thad in 4 less games with a better average by 20%. Plus he’s only averaging 3 rebounds less per game when he’s five inches shorter.

  4. GaryH
    1. February 2013 at 12:06

    How can you say Thad superior to Jrue.

    It’s in the numbers man, Jrue scores more, has the ball more, assists more.

    Thad is one of my favorite players, but if this team played 2 whole seasons 1 without Jrue, and 1 without Thad, it wouldn’t be close which season they would play better in.

    With Jrue of course.

  5. Jeff McMenamin
    1. February 2013 at 12:09

    Also just some food for thought Steve, Tony Allen is the only guard in the NBA who’s played 1,000 min this season with a DRTG below 100 with 98. Conley has the best DRTG for a PG with 100. On average guards sit at 104, while nearly every big man in the league has a rating of 103 or better. Duncan has the best rating for a big man at 94. To say Thad is a superior defender to Jrue because he sits at 103 compared to Jrue’s 108 is laughable. As I just showed the best big man in the NBA’s DRTG and the best PG in the NBA’s rating are 6 points apart. There’s clearly a positional difference when it comes to DRTG. Jrue and Thad are both below average defenders for their positions. The best rating for a PF is Lamar Odom at 98. So Thad is 5 points below his average, while Jrue is 8 points below Conley’s average. You can’t compare players who play different positions, without comparing them to players in their own positions first.

  6. Steve Toll
    1. February 2013 at 12:11

    Jeff,

    Please explain these following statements

    ****please give an example for #2 but since you claim Jrue>Thad, the guard most be better than the big

    I will also chime in with some answers, because some of this stuff it so LOL

    1. Larger sample size for Thad

    2. In general…If your team is missing its best big man in basketball it is a lot worse off than missing its best guard. Examples a plenty.

    3. Thad missed no games this season so there’s no way to judge things the other way around. Team would probably perform even worse.

    4. Everyone on the teams rating goes down when Thad’s off the court. This doesn’t mean that Thad is a superior player, it means he’s more valuable to the team at this point and time.

    5. Also, you clearly showed how Thad isn’t the same player without Jrue.

    QUESTION: Which is more ‘clear’, Thad > Jrue or “Thad isn’t the same player w/o Jrue”

  7. Steve Toll
    1. February 2013 at 12:25

    Jeff,

    I never said this “Thad is a superior defender to Jrue because he sits at 103 compared to Jrue’s 108″

    So why make this comment “To say Thad is a superior defender to Jrue because he sits at 103 compared to Jrue’s 108 is laughable.”

  8. Jeff McMenamin
    1. February 2013 at 12:49

    Steve,

    1. Jrue Holiday averages just over 38 mpg, Thaddeus Young averages just under 36 mpg. In the 37 games Holiday has played this season, that equates to around 80 min that Holiday has been on the court longer than Thad. I don’t know how to find the exact amount of time Holiday has been on the court without Thad, but it’s a much larger amount of time than Thad has been on the court without Jrue. This of course is excluding the four games Jrue didn’t play. Therefore, the sample size is larger and margin of error is greater for Jrue playing without Thad.

    2. You don’t understand value in basketball Steve or matchups. Thad’s value to the Sixers the way the team is currently constructed is much greater than Jrue’s. This doesn’t mean he’s a better player. Without Thad on the court, teams can double Jrue without worrying about any big men doing damage. Offensively, opposing teams can also take the ball to the rack at will.

    Spencer Hawes’ DRTG is 105, Lavoy Allen’s DRTG is 107. Thad’s DRTG of 103, although below average by big men standards, is the highest of big men on the team while offensively Thad takes the double team off Jrue and opens up his ability to take the ball to the rack or create with his passing ability.

    Example 2012-13 Chicago Bulls.

    3. Going by what I just said about doubling Jrue, the team would be in an a lot worse position to win games.

    4. Again…See #2.

    5. As you said in your story,

    “In the 4 games that Jrue missed the team went 0-4. Thad also had a sub-par stretch of efforts those 4 games. In those 4 games, Thad was a total of -50 on the court.”

    To answer your question…What’s more clear is that Thad isn’t the same player w/o Jrue.

    I’ll add to that…The Sixers are a worse team as currently made up w/o Thad on the court compared to w/o Jrue on court, because at least Turner can be a decent PG in Jrue’s place. Nobody on the Sixers can even be decent at PF in Thad’s place.

  9. Justin
    1. February 2013 at 13:28

    I completely agree with the assessment that Thad is more valuable than Jrue, but I don’t like looking at statistical analysis when you are bouncing between PF and PG. We have to be thankful to have 2 young budding stars on our team, but I think Jrue is a long way from being the most valuable player to the sixers. I like the way he CAN run the offense, penetrating and distributing to create open shots. But I don’t like how he handles crucial possessions in games. As PG, you’re the general of the floor and have to assess what the defense is trying to do and what your situation is. Jrue falls short on making good decisions consistently. When the sixers are down a possession I often see him keeping the ball and driving to the basket when there isn’t an open lane. Or I see him increase the pace when the team has a lead under 3 minutes to play. He is a great player, but I hope Collins is addressing the concerns I see in Jure’s game. Once he figures that out he will be an important catylst to this team.

  10. Rob Y
    1. February 2013 at 14:02

    Justin,

    You do not know much about Bball:

    “Or I see [Jrue] increase the pace when the team has a lead under 3 minutes to play.”

    One of the Sixers biggest flaws has been slowing down with a slight lead and completely killing our offense toward the end of games and closing out.

    Also, it’s hard to completely agree that Thad is better than Jrue. There are numerous factors that go into account before you can make that claim.

    “When the sixers are down a possession I often see him keeping the ball and driving to the basket when there isn’t an open lane.”
    – What do you mean when we’re down a possession? What else do you want him to do with very few weapons to work with? He will look stupid at times driving into a clogged lane but only a handful of players in the NBA have the intuition to know exactly when that lane will be available or not.

  11. Justin
    1. February 2013 at 14:24

    If the team has a lead of more than 1 possession, Jrue shouldn’t be rushing to get a shot off, he should be taking his time to shorten the game. Why extend the game when you already have a lead?

    ‘down a possession': just trying to imitate a crucial possession.

    He has few weapons? That’s just ridiculous to say in the NBA, regardless you need to have a high percentage shot in those situations. I like Jrue, I just think his decision-making is poor.

  12. MountainDrew
    1. February 2013 at 14:58

    Thad himself has said Jrue is a star and that they would not be near the position they are in right now withour him. He knows what he is talking about, you don’t need these advanced metrics because they are flawed.

  13. Dan Robinson
    1. February 2013 at 15:37

    Steve Toll, a homeless man’s Internet Skip Bayless. I’m going to begin my argument by stating the numbers are flawed and end it with the one number (a respected and lasting metric) that disputes my thesis.

    Quick question–you constantly make the assertion to that point guards aren’t important. Are you making the general comparison of the quality of point guard play to other positions and how they are related to wins. Or are you comparing how the the a difference of quality in point guard play effects wins as compared to a difference of quality in the play at other positions. Its an important distinction. Is a plus point guard more predictive of wins than a plus power forward?

  14. Rick
    1. February 2013 at 16:32

    First off I don’t know why there is an article comparing two players on the SAME team. If we were looking to trade away one of them and we were trying to figure out which would be the smarter decision than ok. But, we are comparing two players that are going to be with this team for the next few years unless we do decide to trade one, and I guaranteed it WILL NOT be Jrue. I love Thad’s game and I respect his heart and effort, but there is NO WAY he is more important than Jrue. I don’t care what the numbers say because they are too flawed and there are two many, “this category isn’t perfect, it’s right a lot of the time though.” What makes it right in this situation?

    We need Thad and Jrue for this team. Jrue can be the starting point guard on a championship team, and I feel Thad can be the 6th man on a championship team.

    Steve,

    How is Thad’s position PF/SF more important than the PG position. Either they are even or the PG position is more important. Jrue makes this team go. I just don’t know what angle to take because it should be clear who is more important. You shouldn’t have to explain something that is clear.

    One more question steve. If you HAD to give away Jrue or Thad for a less superior player, who would you give away?

  15. Rick
    1. February 2013 at 17:03

    Steve,

    I had to go clear my thoughts and come back. I respect your pick on Thad, it’s not right but I respect it. RIght now if AI was in his prime I would pick him over anybody in the league to be the first player on my team, because he is my favorite player. He might not be the most efficient in the numbers but I just love him as a player and he is my favorite player. Thad is your favorite player so your going to ride for him no matter what. Tim Tebow is Skip Bayless’ favorite player(laughs to myself), so he sticks up for him no matter what the numbers are. If Jrue was your favorite player and I tried to say Thad was better you would probably ban me from the site and say I didn’t know basketball.

    No offense to Thad, I love Thad as a player and he is definitely a key to this team being successful. He is a player you feel deserves a championship because he lays it out on the line every night. But, in this case since I been forced to choose, I would have to go with Jrue without a question.

  16. LG
    1. February 2013 at 17:27

    Oh, for the love of. Seriously? I won’t even bother with the numbers. I’ll ask you to watch the game. Thad gets many of his buckets off of cuts to the basket and penetration, which comes from Jrue.

    Jrue makes Thad better, and Thad makes Jrue better. The synergy between them is what makes them effective. Thad IMO always needs a strong PG that can drive and dish, because Thad isn’t very good in isolation(at least, not from the perimeter.)

    BTW Steve, when/if Bynum comes back, both of these players will improve tremendously. How? Basketball Theory: By dumping it down low, Jrue’s TOs will drop dramatically. With Thad on the weak side, Bynum has someone to dump off too. Thad’s the most synergetic player Bynum’s ever played with in his career.

    Because Bynum, all 7’2 of him is sealing off his man, I predict Thad’s rebounding numbers will slightly increase. Not to mention the shot blocking opening up transition opportunities.

    But go ahead, be a hater. It doesn’t matter whether Jrue is, in your minds a combo guard or a pure one, he helps this team win. Same with Thad, same with Bynum.

    If anything, you should be ridiculing Turner. He, who has yet to find a role in his 3rd NBA season.

  17. Matt
    1. February 2013 at 18:51

    This is stupid. First, we are entering the age of the point guard. Most teams are going small now. The PF position is not more important than the point guard position.

    Jrue is out there making things easier for other guys by getting them open looks. I like Thad but he isnt doing that. When you need a bucket you might be able to iso thad and go to him every now and then but he could never be “that guy” for stretches of a game. Jrue so far has proven he can.

    I like Thad but this has got to be one of the dumbest posts ever written.

    Quite honestly its stupid to compare them like this anyway.

  18. CG
    1. February 2013 at 19:30

    Thad is assisted on 72% of his scoring opportunities, I wonder if Thad’s struggles during that 4 game stretch which Jrue missed are related… hmmm.

  19. Joe
    1. February 2013 at 20:27

    Steve,

    You shouldn’t be using WS or WS48 in your argument if you think DRtg is not a good measure of a player’s defensive abilities.

    Have a good weekend,

    Joe.

  20. Guy T'ono
    1. February 2013 at 20:32

    How is sf more important than pg and how is Doug Collins an average coach ? This team is average and has been, if that since A.I. left and no not Iggy he was a bum… This whole topic is a joke and I feel like an idiot for reading it in full and commenting… What a waste of time… You should not have a job if this is what you write about… I mean that.. You are a moron bottom line… Get a real job and don’t talk about sports again because this was an insult to all sports reporters who actually know the game and speak off just stats and nonsense… You my friend are a moron.. PG is the qb of the offense and defense… A PG has the ball in his hands five times as much as any sf in the league…Jrue has the ability to drop 30 every night… This has nothing against Thad I think he is a great asset to this team and underrated but do not knock Jrue ever again you MORON

  21. Rob H
    2. February 2013 at 00:33

    Who do I got? Who do I got? I’ll take my 22 year all-star point guard over my undersized and overpaid power forward any day, regardless of stats. He is the future, Thad should be a sixth man option at the end of the day. Whether he’s been better this season, who cares? Jrue for the future is about the only brightspot, maybe turner one day who knows. But make no mistake jrue is and always will be the better player.

  22. Quinn
    2. February 2013 at 07:39

    Why debate over which is better? Just enjoy both players and realize that they are both important leaders and they both contribute separate and indispensable things to the team. Thad with his unreal hustle and determination, Jrue with his ability to create and carry the team.

  23. Fu
    2. February 2013 at 09:59

    Thad’s my man! And i love the idea that he s even more productive when Jrue is on the floor. We have two amazing players to build around.

    Thanks for the article Steve, as it is very surprising to see how a majority of people can judge with their eyes the opposite of what stats say…

    Still please clarify the following:

    – why does Thad have a more important position?

    – how does your previius answer is impacted by the fact that you consider Thad should play SF?

    – according to games82, based on net production by position, PER ranking is as follows: PG-PF-SF-C-SG. Any view on that?

    Thks

  24. Austin
    2. February 2013 at 10:59

    Thad is NOT the Sixers’ best player. That distinction would go to Jrue, without whom Thad doesn’t score, nor does anyone on this team for that matter. I love Thad, and love that he always hustles and produces with a low usage rate, but to list a few stats and suggest that they make him more valuable than Jrue is plain wrong. I’m all for giving praise to Thad cuz he’ perennially overlooked, but don’t do it at the expense of Jrue.

  25. Geoff
    2. February 2013 at 11:46

    All of these advanced metrics are unnecessary and looked at way too much. Jrue is obviously the better player and plays PG which is the most important position therefore he is the most valuable to the Sixers

  26. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 13:02

    Anyone and Everyone who thinks that Jrue > Thad

    Not only are you wrong, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFgXF0a_Yw4

  27. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 14:41

    What is everyone going to say if Thad surpasses Jrue in PER and is rated higher in every single publicly available advanced stat?

  28. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 15:21

    I want to respond to everyone but the responses are generally so absurd, I just want to punch myself in the face and cry.

    Go look at all the teams than have won NBA titles the past 25 years. You’ll notice that PG is without question the least important position when it comes to winning a championship.

    Thad is so obviously better than Jrue, it’s amazing people don’t see it.

    Jrue got outplayed again against the Kings. Jrue gets outplayed in more than 50% of the games. What is everyone watching?

  29. Chris H.
    2. February 2013 at 16:10

    Steve,
    I for one wondered what took so long for this blog to even be written. You have indirectly shoved this on us for how long now? I agree with a previous poster Quinn. This team really isn’t at the point where we should be pitting teammate vs. teammate. Is Rondo better than Garnett, is Wade better than Bosh? Even though they aren’t on the 76ers, those discussions are worth having around the water cooler. Stats can indeed be telling of an overall picture, but stats can also prove anything you want to if you try hard enough. Hell, you can pull a stat somewhere that makes Evan Turner better than Micheal Jordan, or make Iggy seem like a Hall of Fame player (joking…only cause I know how much you love his game). Anyway, I don’t think it’s worth trashing Jrue or Thad. I think most 76ers fan will agree that they are the best two players on the team, which unfortunately, might not be saying much. I believe that those two could be great complementary pieces for any team in the league. I would give only the slightest nod to Jrue, but that is only by using the “eye-test”, not advanced metrics, which you don’t always need to prove your point. Hell, I know Chris Paul is better than Jameer Nelson because of gameplay not because the co-efficient of x is the tangent of…you get my point. I see Jrue take over games more than Thad, but it doesn’t mean that Thad doesn’t ball just as good, if not better at times. I know I didn’t answer any questions, but that’s how I feel about this blog. I will look forward to you next “discussion” topic: Worst PG of all time Jrue Holiday vs. the Next greatest big man of all-time Spencer (one rebound) Hawes.

  30. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 16:38

    For all the Jeff Mcmenamin fans and Steve Toll haters, here is some interesting info.

    I have made this offer to Jeff because he claims to be a better basketball “analyst” than me:

    $500 a nightPick the games every night against the spread. In the event of a tie on a given day, that money is rolled over to the next night

    II’ll have a certified check of $7,500 by 10am Monday to his attorney, for escrow.

    Jeff does not have to escrow.

    Winner collects at the end of every month.

    JEFF DECLINED THIS OFFER

  31. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 16:44

    This article isn’t about trashing anyone. If you just look at the numbers, there is an obvious choice about who is the better player.

    If I thought Jrue was better than Thad, I’d of been saying that for awhile. And then I’d write this article with all the numbers and have to seriously question my thought that Jrue is better than Thad.

    Fact is, Thad has a much larger effect on things than Jrue. He has been a better player for the past few years and that hasn’t changed this year.

    Jrue is an All-Star who happens to get outplayed most nights. Trashing him isn’t what I do. I just point out the obvious facts. I don’t care if anyone agrees with me. I’d much prefer to be the 1 guy who is right compared to the masses who are wrong

  32. Jeff McMenamin
    2. February 2013 at 17:26

    Steve,

    This is why your notorious status continues to grow on this site.

    This is the most petty/uninformed comment I’ve ever read.

    I love how you think betting on sports makes someone a better analyst. Betting has very little to do with analyzing basketball. The spread gamblers use fail time and time again, which is why Casino’s generally end up profiting the most from their customers.

    You think the best analyst in all of basketball is Haralabos Voulgaris because he’s the most successful NBA gambler. I think John Hollinger is the best analyst of basketball, as his body of work and creation of statistics like PER has taken him from an ESPN NBA analyst to a GM job with the Grizzlies.

    I’m a pure analyst like Hollinger. I don’t mix money and sports. Things like the Sixers clicking and beating the Knicks by 17 a week ago can happen, after losing to the same team by 20 twice earlier in the season.

    It’s your preference to associate gambling and sports, but not mine.

    If you want to track my analysis in terms of the Sixers compared to yours recently you can look at this…
    Fact or Fiction: The Sixers will go .500 or better in their next 16 games?

    January 8, 2013, McMenamin: “Fact. In the next 16 games, I see the team getting at least seven wins for a 7-9 record, but more likely grabbing a record of 8-8 or above.”

    January 8, 2013, Toll: “Fiction. 6-10 would have to be looked at as a success and that is taking into consideration that 13 of those games are at WFC.”

    The Sixers are 5-6 since Jan. 8. In their past 6 games, the Sixers have played arguably their best basketball of the season. In their next 5 games the Sixers play a weak Magic team, the Granger-less Pacers whom they nearly beat w/o Holiday in December, Charlotte…nuff said, the Clips who will kill them and Milwaukee who I’m still not convinced is a better team than the Sixers.

    2 wins seems like a guarantee against the Magic and Charlotte. Indiana and Milwaukee are a toss-up. If the Sixers get one win in the next five then you’ve analyzed the team better than I have. If the Sixers get two or more than I’ve proven I don’t need to gamble to analyze this team better than you.

    As for other things I’m still in limbo about from you…
    Explain this comparison if this is the only one you’ll acknowledge?

    I said, “Carmelo Anthony>Tyson Chandler…but only better in PER statistically.”

    You said, “The only 2 that fit that criteria is Chandler+Melo and Chandler is clearly better.”

    You use advanced stats to try and strengthen your arguments time and time again (incorrectly I might add), and you also never explain them. When I bring up a valid argument to you, you get defensive and refuse to answer it. How is Chandler better than Melo?

    Why did the Knicks organization give up half their team to get him? Why is he being paid $6 million more than Chandler?

    Melo just set a Knicks franchise record of 30 straight 20-point games. For the richest NBA franchise in the country, how is he the player in their great history that holds that record?

  33. CG
    2. February 2013 at 17:38

    My God, Steve Toll, few are as unprofessional as you.

  34. Jeff McMenamin
    2. February 2013 at 17:38

    Here’s some other great Toll nuggets…

    “Jrue Holiday Is barely a Top 20 point guard”

    “Thaddeus Young is the worst PF in the division, as a SF he would be Top 8 in the league.”

    “Hawes is a Top 100 player, he isn’t great on defense but it’s not for a lack of effort. He is a capable scorer, passer, rebounder and shot blocker.”

    “Based on per minute production last season, Lavoy Allen is certainly a Top 100 player.”

  35. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 18:00

    Update on my bet proposal with Jeff. I said we can do it without there being any $ involved, he still declined

  36. Steve Toll
    2. February 2013 at 18:04

    Update on my bet proposal with Jeff:

    Jeff is willing to pick who he thinks will WIN each game, no spread involved.

    Jeff doesn’t believe picking against the spread is a viable way to prove whether or not ANYONE is a good basketball analyst

  37. Jeff McMenamin
    2. February 2013 at 18:05

    Steve,

    Since you’re persisting on this issue. I’ll let the readers see exactly what I said.

    Steve: How bout we pick the spreads of every game, NO MONEY involved??

    Jeff: It’s impossible. I don’t know who will be injured/how the lineup will change/if someone will be traded/who could be injured on other teams. That’s a nonsense proposition.

    Steve: We do the picks everyday and you can pick where we get the line from

    Jeff: I’ll make a pick of who I think will win the game. I’m not going to pick “spreads”. Like I said…I don’t believe in using gambling terms to analyze basketball.

    Always one to stretch the truth…Steve Toll.

  38. Ugh
    2. February 2013 at 20:29

    Jrues advanced stats are very poor, but advancd stats favor efficient players considrrably. So it shows that he is inefficient, which most people who watch his games would agree on, and his leading the league in turnovers would support. But that doesn’t mean he is not effective. Lots of players suffer from bad advanced stats due to poor efficiency such as Kobe, Iverson. I have a question for u Steve, who was the best player on the 1998-1999 Spurs team and why?

  39. Fu
    2. February 2013 at 21:51

    Steve – instead of wasting time quarelling as kids with Jeff, you’d be better off adresssing some of the comments made on your assertions…

  40. Ross
    3. February 2013 at 00:45

    Jeff, don’t forget that you also won the bet from the beginning of the season about going over .500 in the first 10 games

  41. Dan Robinson
    4. February 2013 at 14:13

    Was Isaiah Thomas the least important player on the Pistons championship teams, Chauncey Billups? Eleven of those championships were won by Phil Jackson coached teams coached by Phil Jackson running the Triangle, which downplays the importance of a point guard. One might note that Phil is really the only coach to run the triangle with any success at the NBA-level, and his off-guards were Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.

    The failure to participate in silly betting competition does not prove that you are a lesser basketball analyst. It may prove that you are less of an asshole.

  42. Jim
    5. February 2013 at 13:11

    Steve,

    Here’s my favorite line of the article: “Fans of mine know that I don’t think very highly of the average NBA coach and GM.”

    I was literally laughing out loud when I read that. You really think you have fans?

  43. Steve Toll
    7. February 2013 at 11:07

    Jim,

    you really think that I don’t?

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