THE FINAL 31

Posted by: Philadunkia
02/18/13 3:53 pm EST

On Wednesday night in Minnesota, the Sixers will start the final stretch of the 2012-13 season.  To say that this year has been a disappointment so far is an understatement.  During the Bynum-less first 51 games of this season, Collins & Co. have racked up only 22 wins and at times have been simply unwatchable. 

They currently sit in 9th place, four games back of the Milwaukee Bucks in the race for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.  Not helping matters is the fact that the Bucks are 3-0 vs. the Sixers this season.  Simply put,  a push to the playoffs is going to take a monumental effort. 

But in the NBA nothing is impossible.  The Sixers have 31 games remaining, which if they can get everybody healthy should be plenty of time to right the ship and make the playoffs.

However, if everyone doesn’t get healthy these last 31 games could be difficult to witness.  

After the jump four Philadunkia scribes will give you their thoughts on what will happen with the Sixers over the final 31 games of the 2012-13 season.

 

Jeff McMenamin:  The Sixers will go as far the rest of the season as Andrew Bynum takes them.  If he fails to make a return then the Sixers will struggle mightily the rest of the way.  Realistically he and Thad should make their return to the lineup by February 26th.  With Bynum in the lineup I think the Sixers can perform among the best in the East the rest of the way.  If all goes to plan I see the Sixers getting as high as the 5th seed in the East and realistically going 20-11 to finish the season.  No. 33 is one BIG “if” however. 

Steve Toll:  As I stated to begin the year this would be a season of resounding disappointment.   A mistake filled summer firmly entrenched the team in mediocrity, at best, for years to come.   As we head to the final 31 games of the year that statement rings true as ever.   A false hope, Andrew Bynum, on the sidelines keeping some pipe dream of glory alive and well.  The 76ers in a best case scenario will win 30% of its games without Bynum or Thad, 40% without Bynum and 55% with everyone healthy.  Regardless of Bynum resigning the team is capped out with no draft picks and no young cheap talent available going forward, apologies to Arnett Moultrie and whatever D-League player is snatched from the 2013 Lottery.  After a year when the 76ers underperformed by at minimum 6 wins, fans can take solace in the fact that this year’s team has over performed by at minimum 5 games. 12-19 to end the year; final record of 34-48.

C. Smith:  The Sixers have 31 games remaining after the ASG and I don’t see good things ahead.  I’ll start by predicting that for some unforeseen Bynum does not make his debut in February.  In fact I bet he never suits up this year for the 7-6.  In addition I see a slow return to 100% for Thad.  Hammies can be tricky like that.  I also don’t think that Jrue can continue to haul 35+ minutes a night without some drop off in play.  Those items combined with a brutal schedule down the stretch – only 12 home games; 6 sets of back-to-back games remaining; including a four games in 5 nights stretch during early March – means that the Sixers will not finish on a high note.  I predict a 13-18 run down the home stretch for a 35-47 overall record that will leave them on the outside looking in at the playoffs.           

Jake Fischer:  As the Philadelpiha 76ers prepare for the final stretch of this uneventful 2012-2013 season, many things can and will happen of their final 31 games.  It seems unlikely the organization will make a deal to impact just this season, but they have not ruled out making a trade for the future, per Tony DiLeo.  With that, everyone outside Jrue and Thad being dealt is highly plausible-even the 7-1 injured center who-shall-not-be-named.  Regardless, by the way the management has handled his situation, I no longer believe Andrew Bynum will play this season and for that, this team will struggle.  Playing 82 games without the main piece both your offense and defense was designed upon just doesn’t work.  Especially when you have a coach like Doug Collins who can’t make adjustments. Sorry to be so cynical, Sixers fans.  Expected Record: 14-17…Final Season Record: 36-46…No Playoffs 


 
 
 

57 Responses to “THE FINAL 31”

  1. louie
    18. February 2013 at 16:06

    This was a pretty bad season, but I don’t necessarily blame management. The Bynum trade was a risk, and at the time, it was considered a good trade. If he was healthy, I could see this team winning 45-50 games easily.

    Also, Holiday turned into an all star. And he’s got a very bright future. He has the tools to be an elite defender in the future, and hes only 22.

    So even though its been a rough season, at least we have Jarue.

  2. louie
    18. February 2013 at 16:08

    And Steve Toll, if your reading this, the majority of basketball fans agree with everything in the second paragraph, and you probably couldn’t find one thing wrong about what I said about Holiday. Am I right?

  3. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 16:46

    Jeff,

    I’d love to hear how the 76ers could end up as the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference.
    42 wins is where you have the team finishing in a best case scenario, as the 5th seed in the East. Current East Standings

    MIA is 38-12
    NYK is 32-18
    IND is 32-21
    BKN is 31-22
    CHI is 30-22
    ATL is 29-22
    BOS is 28-24
    MIL is 26-25

    Here is the record these teams need to have to have 42 wins the rest of the year AND their end of season projected MINIMUM win total, courtesy of my #s

    MIL: 16-15 (39 wins)
    BOS: 14-16 (39 wins)
    ATL: 13-18 (44 wins)
    CHI: 12-18 (44 wins)
    BKN: 11-18 (44 wins)
    IND: 10-19 (45 wins)
    NYK: 10-22 (48 wins)
    MIA: 4-28 (54 wins)

    Jake,

    “Playing 82 games without the main piece both your offense and defense was designed upon just doesn’t work.”

    Considering that Bynum was the last move made this offseason, how was the team designed around him?
    I’m not picking at your comments, I’ve just been waiting since the trade happened in August, for someone to back up that comment with something/anything that resembles a valid point.

    If the argument somehow revolves around the team having their eyes on Bynum the whole offseason, why didn’t they make a move for a guy like Ryan Anderson or Ersan Ilyasova?

  4. Jake Fischer
    18. February 2013 at 18:42

    Steve,

    In my opinion, the four-way trade for Bynum had been in the works since early July. But, I’m not going to guarantee that’s the case. But, no matter what, this team was meant for a force in the middle on offense an, defensively, use a bevy quick guards on the perimeter with a shot blocker inside.

    As stupid as this sounds, I truly believe that before the Bynum trade, Collins had his “force in the middle” planned to be Jrue, Evan, and Iguodala driving to the basket. And, defensively, his he was gonna throw all these wing players at other team’s guards with Spencer Hawes and Kwame Brown as shot blockers inside. I know that’s absolutely ridiculous and wouldn’t have even been successful either, but hearing everything Collins had said during the summer I think that’s what the offense and defensive schemes were going to be.

    With that, when they dealt for Bynum, I think Collins started having wet dreams about replacing Iguodala driving with Bynum posting and Hawes and Kwame clogging the paint on D with Bynum as well.

    Is that a formidable enough comment for you, my friend?

  5. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 19:20

    Louie,

    45-50 wins means the 76ers are a 6th, 7th, 8th seed. The Bynum trade wasn’t good when it was made and it wasn’t good now. The 76ers are closer to having 15 wins having 25 wins.

    All-Star in name, not produciton. More than 1/2 the time, Jrue gets outplayed. His future is bright, LOL, the futureeeee. You’re right about Jrue being 22. He has the tools to be an elite defender in the futureeeeee. The future better be soon because Jrue is making 9 million next year and the excuses must stop

  6. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 19:36

    Jake,

    Not in the least, to be perfectly honest. DC is a defensive minded coach; J-Rich, SwaggyP, Dorell, Hawes and even Bynum are offensive players…

    The Lakers have never had an elite D with Bynum on the court, that isn’t a fluke.

    The front office also continually referenced having a team like the Orlando Magic, except D12 is wayyyyyyyyyyy better on both ends of the court than Bynum AND the team doesn’t have a true stretch 4, nor did it attempt to acquire one OR help Thaddeus Young to become one this season in anticipation of a healthy Bynum entering the lineup.

    Ryan Anderson was traded for Gustavo Ayon (seriously) and Ilyasova could of likely been traded straight up for Thad, neither of those moves happened or were even explored.

    Any thought of this trade being on the minds of the 76ers front office for quite awhile before it happened is as far fetched as the 76ers going 20-11 to end this season.

    A worse thought is the possibility that you are in fact correct but the GM+DC are so incompetent they thought that the moves they made this offseason were in fact good moves and a step forward in making the 76ers a contender. Lose-Lose Scenario either way

  7. Jeff McMenamin
    18. February 2013 at 20:17

    Steve,

    The top 4 teams in the East will stay the same….Heat, Knicks, Indiana, Brooklyn..

    All of them are healthy (Indy even healthier when Granger returns this week) and have shown consistency all year…

    The rest of the pack is in question..

    Yes Chicago is 7 games up on the Sixers and the Hawks 6.5, but that’s not insurmountable for the Sixers the rest of the way. This is going to be a distraction the rest of the way for the Bulls…
    http://espn.go.com/chicago/nba/story/_/id/8940269/derrick-rose-chicago-bulls-said-far-away-returning

    The Hawks are without Lou for the rest of the season and now it seems like Josh Smith will be on his way out by the trade deadline. You take away two of the players you rely the most on for offense you aren’t going to be the same team the rest of the season.

    The Celtics are without Rondo the rest of the year and seem like they’re standing pat at the deadline and the Bucks aren’t any better than the Sixers WITHOUT Bynum.

    20-11 for the Sixers is my realistic expectation for them with Bynum healthy and in the line-up. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t do even better than that.

    The Bulls have a BRUTAL schedule the rest of the way…
    If Bynum returns by February 26, I see the Bulls 2-4 in February, 3-12 in March and 6-4 in April.

    11-20 won’t be enough if the Sixers even go just 20-11.

    The Hawks don’t have a brutal schedule the rest of the way, but it’s not a cakewalk either and they play the Sixers three times. If Smith is traded which is highly likely…This team is doomed the rest of the way. I’m not breaking it down by month until I know he is for sure.

    The Celtics and Bucks I don’t even see as threats to the Sixers in the race. The streak without Rondo was impressive for the C’s…Now it’s time for a reality check. I don’t see the second half good at all for them and they may just barely squeak in as the 8 seed for an epic first round matchup against the Heat.

    The Bucks are just way too inconsistent. They have a worse slide going than the Sixers right now and their identity this year is beating teams like the Nets and Bulls, just to lose the next night to teams like the Pistons and Wizards.

    Bottom line…Those are four teams capable of making slides and three of them may have to play the rest of the year without their best players. Meanwhile the Sixers are about to have two of their best players “hopefully” return to the lineup by the end of the month which will completely change them and energize them the rest of the way.

    Lakers with Shaq 2003-04…56-26 and lost in the NBA finals
    Lakers without Shaq 2004-05…34-48 and didn’t make the playoffs

    Just sayin…

  8. Louie
    18. February 2013 at 20:40

    Really Steve? Why don’t you give me a game by game analysis as to how jrue was outplayed 1/2 the time. Since you dislike him so much, I think you may have given whoever he was matched up with the edge.

  9. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 20:55

    Oh Jeff,

    LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLL, Why would Derrick Rose coming back or not, SUDDENLY be a distraction to the Bulls at this point in the season?

    Do you even know the Bulls record without D-Rose the last 2 years? It’s 51-35

    ATL needs to win slightly more than 40% of its remaining games to hit 42 wins, and your honestly suggesting it might happen???

    ATL was 22-17 with Lou healthy, and 7-5 since he has been hurt.
    Josh Smith is expiring, but if he is traded, it will be for quality players, not scrubs. They aren’t gonna light cap room in fire for Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes, PLUS it’s not like J-Smith has been crushing this year, he’s got a 49.5 TS%

    Milwaukee is +2.2 per 100 possessions superior to Philadelphia as it stands and is +19 in the 3 games they have played. How do you surmise that MIL = PHI?????

    The Celtics are 8-1 with wins against MIA, LAL, LAC and DEN since Rondo got hurt, Ewing Theory, in effect, but seriously, they’ll be ok.

    20-11 is your realistic expectation with Bynum in the lineup? That translate to 53 wins over an 82 games season. Factor in, SYNERGY, and you project this 76er team to win upwards of 57 games with Bynum healthy for 82 games.

    Is that correct? Because its a hilariously terrible projection. Not as bad as you projecting the Bulls going 11-20 to end the season, but close.

    I’ll skip over the rest of your stuff because my eyes are bleeding because I looked ahead to you in a roundabout way comparing Bynum to SHAQUILLE O’NEAL, but even you aren’t that daft.

    The differences between the 03-04 and 04-05 Lakers was Phil Jackson, Shaq, Karl Malone, Gary Payton were replaced by Rudy Tomjanovich, Chucky Atkins, Caron Butler, Lamar Odom etc etc etc

    Come at the King, you best not miss, and as usual you missed terribly

  10. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 21:15

    Louie,

    Off the top of my head: Jennings 3x, Westbrook, 2x, Parker 2x, Rondo 2x, Felton 2x, Knight , Pargo, Dragic, Lowry/Calderon, CP3, Jerryd Bayless, Isaiah Thomas, George Hill, Ridnour Barea, Steph Curry

    That’s 22 games right there.

    I don’t dislike Jrue, I just get a kick out of all the misinformed people who think that he is CP3-2.0 or something like that. Dude is average

  11. Jake Fischer
    18. February 2013 at 21:52

    Steve,

    I can’t defend the Sixers offseason moves outside of getting Bynum at all because I absolutely despise the horrible overall team they constructed. If Bynum played a whole season this year (as he was supposed to come back on opening day like we all remember), I still think they would’ve been a 48-win team at most because of the severe defensive issues they have.

    But, you have to give Louie some slack here. If you take a look at my last piece for BuzzOnBroad.com (which in fact led me to writing for Philadunkia) http://www.buzzonbroad.com/2013/01/jrue-holiday-should-be-starting-in-the-all-star-game.html you will see that Jrue was having a statistically better year than Rondo at the point of the article–which was waaaay before Rondo was hurt. In the first half of the season, Jrue put up the best stats of EVERY point guard in the ENTIRE Eastern Conference. He’s not average.. With Derrick Rose hurt, he’s a Top 10 PG behind CP3, Westbrook, Parker, Irving, Rondo, Conley in some order. That’s with DWill’s awful shooting numbers. Jrue Holiday is not an average PG. 5 years from now, we’ll be discussing Kyrie, Jrue and Damian Lilliard as which PG is the best in the L.

  12. Jeff McMenamin
    18. February 2013 at 22:21

    Steve,

    First of all I haven’t come at any King. You came at me…

    “Jeff,

    I’d love to hear how the 76ers could end up as the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference.”

    And I responded to peasant Steve in a way where even you’d be able to understand.

    The distraction hasn’t been there for the Bulls until now, because now people are hearing that he’s back at practice playing 5-on-5 and freaking out about it. Questions will be asked at every practice “When is he coming back?”…Like the Sixers have dealt with the whole season now with Bynum.

    The Bulls are 2-5 in their last seven…Right in accordance with the increased Rose talk. No bigger distraction you say??

    I didn’t want to know the record of the Bulls’ without Rose the past two years, but thanks for telling me. The Bulls SOS this season is tied with the Sixers right now at 20th in the league. As I just stated they’re about to play the hardest part of their season in Feb and March. As I also stated they’re 2-5 in their past 7 with the Rose distraction which will continue the rest of the season. Thanks for coming out.

    How are you so sure the Hawks will get quality players for Smith? Why wouldn’t they try to get draft picks for him?

    The Hawks are 4-4 in their last 8. Their wins were against the Magic, Mavs, Memphis and Toronto…Losses against Knicks, Chicago, Pacers and Hornets. Smith had 19 and 11 in the win over the Grizz. Until the trade goes down like I said (and it will) I’m not going to get into the Hawks’ record, but it’s not looking good the rest of the year for them. Think otherwise all you want, but they’re ready to find some new young pieces in place of Smith or picks. They’re not getting a star in return…Probably wouldn’t even be able to get Thad.

    Milwaukee beat the Sixers by two without Thad and Bynum at home. The Sixers were leading for the majority of the game. That’s all the evidence I need. All the games were close this season, but Jennings owned Jrue in all of them. He’s not getting to the rack with nearly as much success with Bynum down there.

    The Celtics have been playing unreal and I have no justification of why they’d suddenly fall so much, other than a gut feeling. Playing without Rondo will catch up to them soon enough.

    With a healthy Bynum by December this season I said they’d finish 48-34. I don’t think 50+ wins would be out of the question with a healthy Bynum for a full season. My prediction is strictly on the rest of the current season…I didn’t project anything saying the team would win 57+ games with Bynum fully healthy because that was never the case. Btw Steve, I’m 2-0 on our betting predictions this season…You’re 0-2.

    Lamar Odom averaged 15 points, 10 rebounds and four assists for the Lakers in 2004-05. 17.3 PER, 53.9 TS%. That’s better than Thad this season. Caron Butler averaged 15 points, six rebounds and two assists.

    Those aren’t bad numbers at all. Obviously Rudy T instead of Jackson was the biggest thing, but can’t blame Odom and Butler. But, you can also blame is SHAQ not being there, like Bynum hasn’t been for the Sixers! Not the same player, but both dominating offensive centers.

    Talking to you is like talking to a wall though. You’re gonna look at this and have some non-logical rebuttal.

  13. Jon
    18. February 2013 at 23:07

    Steve, the sixers lack a capable interior defender who can block shots and defend the pick and roll. They lack a guy who is capable of consistently creating a shot for himself, besides jrue. They lack a legitimate post threat. Jrue is 6’4 190. He’s going to struggle guarding smaller quicker guards such as Jennings/Knight. That’s why a consistent interior defender is even more significant.

    Jennings has monta Ellis, a guy who creates his own shot and takes pressure of him, as well as dalembert and sanders to block shots. Westbrook is a better player, but either way he still has durant and Ibaka and Kevin Martin. Most would say Parker’s better, but he also has Duncan and ginobli as well as the other assets that the spurs have. Rondo might be better but he’s a different style point then jrue, he also has Garnett and pierce. Interior defender and shot creator. Felton has chandler and melo. Jrue had an unusually bad game in the first meeting with knight, not even mediocre and he outplayed knight easily in their next meeting. The pargo game is a fluke as can be seen by his play here. I certainly hope you’re not implying Jeremy pargo is better at basketball than jrue holiday. Dragic has not outplayed jrue this season,
    matchup 1 GD 10 pts 4 asts 3 rebs JH 33 13 3
    Matchup 2 GD 20 6 4 JH 16 10 10
    He was not outplayed by either Lowry or Calderon. Jerryd bayless is good, not as good as he was that night, plus he’s one of those small quick guys, and he has Randolph and at the time he had Rudy gay. Bad game for jrue against Sacramento. I’ll give you that one. He was outplayed by George hill but he was playing without Thad young the only sixer who even resembles someone who could fit one of
    These areas of need for the sixers. George hill has Roy hibbert Paul George and David west. I wouldn’t say he was outplayed by either barea or ridnour, they were equally average, but ridnour/barea have Kevin love and nik pekovic. Steph curry has David lee and Andrew bogut. CP3 is CP3 not to mention he has Blake
    Griffin deandre Jordan Jamal Crawford etc…

    That’s why jrue is getting “outplayed” which in the games I checked he wasn’t even outplayed.

    Andrew Bynum is a post threat, and interior defender. While I don’t think he would make as great as a contribution as Jeff thinks I definitely think the sixers would be at least the fifth best team in the east this season, I just don’t think they could make fifth by the end of the year. As you said the sixers management didn’t quite plan as well as they should have if they were truly going for Bynum all along. However, the piece they needed was not someone like Ryan Anderson, but oj mayo, he’s better than Lou. If nothing else however they could have kept Lou. Jrue can’t do everything by himself, that’s why he gets “outplayed” in some games.

  14. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 23:21

    Jeffrey,

    First you claim that the Bulls last 7 games is a relevant sample size of things to come , do the same thing with ATL being .500 over its last 8 games AND say you have a gut feeling that Boston who is 8-1 in its last 9 games, is due for a crash.

    Why is the speculation about D-Rose returning a distraction for the Bulls?

    ATL will trade Josh Smith for draft picks? A playoff team will have a super low EV pick and a lottery team is going to give up its pick for Josh Smith. Why would ATL take a low EV pick and why would a lottery team give up its pick to pay Josh Smith $18 mil a year when the new CBA makes that a terrible terrible move. It’s the same thing with giving up a bunch of young guys for Josh Smith, it doesn’t make sense for most teams.

    If you think that ATL couldn’t get Thad for Josh Smith, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    Milwaukee is +19 in 144 minutes against the 76ers.

    The 76ers were 10-6 (62.5 win%) through November ths year, by your projections you have the team going 38-28 (57.5 win%) with a healthy Bynum.

    By your very own admission, you have the 76ers WORSE with Bynum on the court, just like now the Lakers were his own career. I look forward to your back talking on that part, LOL.

    Are you saying that Caron Butler+ Odom in 04-05 > Payton+Malone in 03-04?????

    Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  15. Steve Toll
    18. February 2013 at 23:29

    Jake,

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=willide01&y1=2013&p2=holidjr01&y2=2013

    Deron Williams has a TS% 3pts higher than Jrue., Deron has a 2.67:1 AST:TO ratio, Jrue is at 2.22

    Is it safe to say you didn’t configure in RAPM as well?

    As for the jrue is above average talk, you are flat out wrong. It’s possible to be the 2nd best at something and be average. Even if Jrue is the 7th best PG, he is still average…

    Jon,

    Why have the lakers been better with Bynum off the court his whole career and never been an elite defensive team with him healthy?

  16. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 00:07

    Hahahaha I love your debates Steve I really do. You dance around the issues I bring to the surface all the time.

    You haven’t explained how the team isn’t distracted by Rose if they’ve lost 2-5 in their last 7. Wouldn’t that be a clear sign? What other reason do you think it would be? They’re clearly not the same team that beat Miami on the road last month.

    Atlanta’s about to lose one of its best players in a trade. Obviously they won’t perform the same without J-Smooth. The 4-4 is a good sample size, because it’s without Lou. You’re too dolt to understand that though.

    Why wouldn’t ATL trade for draft picks or youth and why wouldn’t a team like Pheonix or Charlotte want to give up their 13th or 14th picks and a prospect or two for one of the top forwards in the league? Those teams are bottom dwellers and they’re not getting Superstar talent with those later picks. Plus they already have the 1st and 5th pick. If you look at the Hawks’ salary next year they’re only locked into $18 million in salaries. They’ll probably give a long-term deal to Teague and short-term to Korver. Other than that they can attack to FA market with tons of cash and they’ll have a solid core with Horford, Teague and Lou. As for Pheonix and Charlotte, they’ll still have the pick they desperately needed and a star to lead them out of the dark-ages in Smith. It would suck for Smith but be good for the parties involved.

    The Hawks are in one of the best positions to contend for years. They just have to find the right FA this summer…Or even save up the cash for next summer. 2014 class is pretty full….
    http://www.hoopsworld.com/2014-nba-free-agents/

    The C’s lost 8-of-10 from Dec. 14th to Jan. 2nd then won their next six. They lost six straight from Jan. 16th to Jan. 25th then won 8-of-9. If you wanted to talk about variance…This is the team to talk about it with. I believe they’ll cool off after the all-star break if this trend I just noted continues, which without Rondo seems like a high probability.

    Dude you’re way too obsessed with point differential. Watch the games…Don’t just look at box scores. The Bucks stand no chance against the Sixers with a healthy Bynum and they nearly lost to the Sixers C team last week. That point differential doesn’t explain anything.

    Steve…Considering November was the easiest month of the Sixers schedule this season yes their win percentage would go down slightly with Bynum from the hardest month of their season (December) on. I even bet you before the season that the Sixers would finish above .500 for their hardest 10 game stretch to start the season where you said they had no chance. It wasn’t all that shocking to me that they went 10-6 considering their opponents. Are you suggesting that the Sixers would’ve been 12-23 in their next 35 if they had Bynum from that point on in the season? 38-28 was a fair assessment of what Bynum could’ve brought this team, I really don’t know what you’re trying to prove. I just hope for the sake of this season Bynum has good news tomorrow in his press conference.

    I never suggested that Odom and Butler were better than Malone and Payton. In fact, the Lakers probably would’ve won the NBA Finals that season had Malone not gotten hurt in the playoffs. All I’m saying is that Odom and Butler played well that season and shouldn’t be blamed for the year they had. The main thing to blame is the departure of Shaq in his prime. You can’t replace a dominant force like that…Just like how the Sixers haven’t been able to fill the void of Bynum this season.

  17. Joe
    19. February 2013 at 06:43

    Steve Toll,

    You said this:

    “Milwaukee is +19 in 144 minutes against the 76ers.”

    But you also said this:

    “First you claim that the Bulls last 7 games is a relevant sample size of things to come”

    So how is it that three games is a good sample size in the first instance, and seven games is not a good sample size in the second? You use the sample size argument to prove your own point and then use it in the opposite sense to disprove someone else’s. You can’t have it both ways like this.

    Have a good week,

    Joe.

  18. Rob h
    19. February 2013 at 10:36

    Steve toll,
    What you still don’t understand is basketball is a game of matchups. With that being said a healthy sixers team in the playoffs could have done some damage simply because only Indiana could defend Bynum. That was the point of the team, a tough playoff out. Why that idea continues to evade you is a mystery to the world.

  19. ken
    19. February 2013 at 10:55

    even though this trade would never happen a person can dream right?
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=a9pg4fc
    this trade though I can see happening id miss thad but we would be getting rid of turner and as toll complains about all the time would help our cap situation unless we signed both josh smith and Bynum but then is we did that we would definitely be title contenders pending bynums health with a trio of josh smith Bynum and holiday
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=atkkmxm

  20. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 11:58

    Jeff,

    Noah has missed 5 of the last 7 game for the Bulls. That might have something to do with their record over the last 7 games.

    Why is ATLs record over the past 12 games without Lou LESS relevant than the past 8 games?

    Why would CHA or PHX trade young+cheap talent when they can go after Smith this offseason and keep those picks? Neither team can contend in the near future, so why mortgage championship hope for the future now?

    Are these next 2 quotes a joke: “As for Pheonix and Charlotte, they’ll still have the pick they desperately needed and a star to lead them out of the dark-ages in Smith”

    AND

    “The Hawks are in one of the best positions to contend for years”

    MIA, OKC, LAC, CHI, IND, HOU are 6 teams that are in a much better position the next few years. That’s 20% of the league…… and there are others.

    You make mention of the Celtics up and down year and even cite diffferent streaks but don’t break down H/A, SOS, B2Bs etc etc etc, LOL.

    MIL is +19 in 144 minutes against the 76ers, how is that not relevant?

    You say that you expected the team to perform about 38-28 with Bynum at Healthy, over an 82 games season, that is about 47 wins.

    47 wins in the Eastern Conference this year (assuming that NO team suffers any injuries) would have the 76ers behind MIA, NYK, IND, CHI, BKN, ATL, BOS AND in a dogfight with MIL/WAS/TOR for the 8th spot in the East

    Odom and Butler WERE DOWNGRADES TO PAYTON AND MALONE as was the COACHING CHANGE, those had real tangible effects on the lakers team.

    You just admitted that the 76ers are a 47 win team with Bynum

  21. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 12:03

    Joe,

    My comment of “MIL is +19 in 144 minutes against Philadelphia”

    Was in response to Jeff saying that Phi is a good as MIL right now without Bynum. I also brought up the 2.2 point advantage per 100 possessions that MIL has had so for this year in total.

    Jeff made another dumb remark about the last 7 games the Bulls played and how it related to Derrick Rose announcing he may not be back this year. Jeff linked an article that was dated FEBRUARY 13th as proof of this the Rose talk being a distraction.

    There are 3 problems with his “7 game sample size”.

    Only 1 games was played since that article came out, Noah missed 5 of the last 7 games and the Bulls are 51-35 the last 2 years in games that D-Rose hasn’t played.

    Work on your reading comprehension over the weekend

  22. Jon
    19. February 2013 at 12:15

    If you can find records of Bynum on or off the court when he was with the lakers that would be great, I’m not doubting you I just couldn’t find any. I’m not saying that having Bynum would make the sixers an elite defense or make Jrue an elite defender. But it would make them significantly better. Also, the personnel on the lakers teams were much different than the personnel on the sixers. The sixers don’t have a pay gasol or a Kobe Bryant to lean on when bynums hurt, all they have is jrue.

  23. Rob Y
    19. February 2013 at 13:20

    Steven Toll Bayless,
    u r the king we all concede to your greatness

  24. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 13:39

    RobH,

    Chris Bosh, Al Horford, Brook Lopez, KG, Joakim Noah and Tyson Chandler are still all in the Eastern Conference….

    The 76ers were a tough playoff out last year, this year even with Bynum is a totally different story.

    Ken,
    Go to the trade machine, set your trade up, hit try trade, THEN HIT SAVE TRADE, then copy the link ON THE ESPN PAGE, and past it here to Philadunkia, otherwise we can’t see the trade you proposed.

    Jon,

    The Lakers had superior personnel and NEVER had an elite defense with Bynum on the court, compare that to ORL who regardless of who was on the court with D12 was ELITE on D. That is your answer without getting into too much detail.

    There is no doubt he will make the team better, but his return alone isn’t going to be a 5 point swing in Point Differential or anything like that

  25. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 13:52

    Well Steve,

    Not only are you wrong, but you lie as well.

    Noah has missed 3 of the past 7 games. They went 1-2 in those games and 1-3 in the four others. But I guess you would have to lie against me to try to prove your points, because that’s what Steve Toll does when he gets backed into a corner.

    The past 12 games without Lou is less relevant because of how the team reacts to a players injury. Players start overcompensating for a guy and get worn down as time progresses (another reason why I think the Celtics are doomed). If you don’t understand this then you don’t understand basketball. He was their best bench player…Now they have Korver, Pachulia and Stevenson…Good luck with that.

    Steve…You can’t build a bridge without a foundation. Smith can be the foundation to start building around. He’s only 27 and will be good til he’s like 34. Why wouldn’t a team with nothing want to build around one of the best offensive/defensive forwards in the league? You make no sense.

    No Steve…Those quotes aren’t jokes they’re the Jruth.

    “MIA, OKC, LAC, CHI, IND, HOU are 6 teams that are in a much better position the next few years. That’s 20% of the league…… and there are others.”

    Add in ATL and PHI.

    “You make mention of the Celtics up and down year and even cite diffferent streaks but don’t break down H/A, SOS, B2Bs etc etc etc, LOL.”

    So what? A winning streak is a winning streak, a losing streak is a losing streak.

    Milwaukee beat the Sixers C team by two points last week at home. That’s why it’s not relevant.

    As for…
    “You say that you expected the team to perform about 38-28 with Bynum at Healthy, over an 82 games season, that is about 47 wins.

    47 wins in the Eastern Conference this year (assuming that NO team suffers any injuries) would have the 76ers behind MIA, NYK, IND, CHI, BKN, ATL, BOS AND in a dogfight with MIL/WAS/TOR for the 8th spot in the East.”

    You’re an idiot. I just told you the Sixers would be a 50+ win team with a healthy Bynum…
    “With a healthy Bynum by December this season I said they’d finish 48-34. I don’t think 50+ wins would be out of the question with a healthy Bynum for a full season.”

    I didn’t admit shit, but I think you need to admit to yourself that you lie and are wrong all the time.

    Btw…
    Apparently the Hawks trade talks for Turner and Hawes have been heating up. Looks like I’ll have to change my prediction if the trade goes down.

  26. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 14:06

    Jeff,

    I made a mistake, he missed 3 of the last 7 games.
    Noah also only played 23 mpg against Denver because of Injury, he is obviously hobbled.

    Keep believing that a team would give up a chance for an elite draft pick for Josh Smith who is going to command 18 million a year for a lottery team, do you understand the new CBA? obviously not, but keep implying that you do, dolt.

  27. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 14:29

    RobY,

    I dont want you to concede in my greatness. I want you to bask in the pool of my knowledge as I lead you into a world of understanding NBA

  28. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 14:32

    Steve,

    Did I ever say they’d be giving up an elite draft pick? No. You just can’t read like always…
    “Why wouldn’t ATL trade for draft picks or youth and why wouldn’t a team like Pheonix or Charlotte want to give up their 13th or 14th picks and a prospect or two for one of the top forwards in the league? Those teams are bottom dwellers and they’re not getting Superstar talent with those later picks. Plus they already have the 1st and 5th pick.”

    The 13th and 14th picks are NOT elite draft picks and they’d be getting Josh Smith in return…One of the top forwards in the league. It’s not hard to understand. Charlotte or Pheonix can draft Zeller or Shabazz with their 1 and 5 picks and ALSO have Josh Smith. A lot better off then they are now. Josh Smith performs to his 18 million, unlike your boy “HOF” Iguodala.

  29. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 14:39

    Where do you get the 13th or 14th pick from when talking about PHX and CHA????

    Iggy will be in the Hall of Fame and you’ll still be a hack, get over it

  30. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 14:51

    Steve,

    http://nbadraft.net/2013mock_draft

    Thank you come again.

    LOLLLLL to Iggy in the HOF

    You claim yourself to be a “stat expert” and you can’t even read or do research…You just pull things out of your ass.

  31. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 15:02

    Jeff,

    I already knew where that came from, also, those will be protected picks and ATL could be left with nothing for Josh Smith.

    You still haven’t answered or shown, how those trades could go down (with the trade machine) and why those teams wouldnt just wait until the offseason to sign Josh Smith instead of giving up assets

  32. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 15:03

    Jeff,

    You have stated that beating the spread isn’t a viable way to measure analytical ability and yet, there are some Wise Men in South Philly who don’t take me phone calls anymore…

  33. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 15:14

    Wrong again Steve,

    Only the Bobcats’ pick is lottery protected and right now Portland is the 14th worst team in the league not the 12th worst…So they don’t qualify for the lottery. The Pheonix pick came in the Nash trade and is unprotected…(Once again researching does wonders to your credibility). It’s more probable that they’d do a deal with Pheonix obviously for this reason and they would be guaranteed not to be left with nothing.

    The trade machine doesn’t factor in picks but it would look something like Josh Smith for young piece, expiring contract A, expiring contract B and the first-rounder…maybe even second rounder.

    Josh Smith will be traded at the deadline…Why wait and miss out on such a talent as him? The Hawks are ready to pull the trigger and a lot of teams are in the line of fire.

  34. Louie
    19. February 2013 at 15:16

    So your saying that although jrue is a top 10 pg, aka the hardest position to play in the nba, he’s not above average???

  35. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 15:24

    Jeff,

    Those teams(phx/CHA) will protect the picks from ATL, sorry I didnt make that more clear

    Use the trade machine and show everyone guy

    If Smith is so desired why on earth are there reports that Philly turned down a trade involving Hawes+ET?

  36. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 15:45

    Steve,

    Haaaa you’re using betting on the NBA in South Philadelphia as an example of good analytical ability? The dirt’s starting to fill up the hole you’re in my friend. Have you ever talked about sports with a true South Philadelphian? That should be all you need to realize how idiotic these people are when it comes to sports. Just listen to callers on WIP or WPEN. “Quality” information right there.

    No those teams wouldn’t lottery protect those picks from ATL. They already have the #1 and #5 pick next season. The Lakers and Blazers aren’t going to tank to be in the bottom 10 of the league. There’s nothing to protect.

    This trade works in the trade machine…
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=apecr8r
    Add a pick and it’s a very attractive offer.

    So does this…
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=agzv3sh

    This trade also would work…
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=asrsveh

    Show me reports that Philly turned down the trade? Nothing has been reported. Here’s the story on it…
    http://www.nj.com/sixers/index.ssf/2013/02/sixers_rumors_josh_smith_for_e.html

    Sixers have wanted Josh Smith since before they got Elton Brand. You’re sorrily mistaken.

  37. steve toll
    19. February 2013 at 16:00

    The wise men of south philly use the same lines as in vegas….

    There is a 0% chance those teams do any trade for JSmooth and dont top 3 protect the picks

    None of the links work btw

  38. Jeff McMenamin
    19. February 2013 at 16:14

    Moving on from Vegas lines that have nothing to do with what we were talking about…

    There is an 100% chance those teams trade for Smith and don’t lottery protect.

    The ESPN Trade Machine is down…Not my fault. Those are the saved links.

    Trade #1
    Smith for Gortat, Morris, Marshall and pick

    Trade #2
    Smith for Gortat, Frye and pick

    Trade #3
    Smith for Gortat, Beasley and pick

  39. Jon
    19. February 2013 at 16:34

    Steve, I wouldn’t say the lakers exactly had superior talent especially from a defensive stand point. Ramon sessions, Lamar odom, Derek fisher, Sasha vujacic, Steve Blake, pau gasol, and Luke Walton aren’t quite defensive stalwarts just to name a few. That being said I don’t know how this turned into basically comparing Dwight Howard and Bynum. No doubt d12 is the superior defender but bynums offensive game is far better than Dwight. However, you don’t need to be a defensive player of the year like Howard to have an important role defensively. Almost any athletic 7 footer will provide a shot blocking presence the sixers desperately need.

    So we’ve agreed that jrue has not been outplayed quite as much as you say, or at least on the abilities of jrue correct?

    I could see a large point swing by the way, the sixers lineup is designed for Bynum to fit. As I’ve already discussed with you before the value of players can vary depending on the situation they’re in. Bynum is much more valuable to the sixers than the lakers.

  40. freezer
    19. February 2013 at 16:57

    steve
    There is a reason the nba has moved towards zone defense. When the nba altered the hand checking rules so that you could not play physical defense on the perimeter it made it far easier for speedier players to work themselves past the perimeter front and inside the defense where all sorts of (bare with me here i know this nitty gritty basketball stuff can be hard for you) effective basketball plays take place.
    To combat this, defenses became increasingly reliant on mobile rim protectors, this development lead to players like hibbert and chandler getting near max deals even though there not very skilled basketball players but in terms of playing defense these players became exceptionally valuable. Now if your going to try and measure Jrues production vs anyones production you must take into account that the Sixers are a point gaurds dream to play against because they can zoom into the lane and because were the sixers and rely on players like kwame, spence, and to a lesser extent Lavoy they can do a variety of things that make them look like good basketball players.
    This is why old school school scouts laugh at dudes like you, you spend all your time studying stats but don’t have a fundamental knowledge of the game outside your precious numbers and don’t understand that there are certain variables you cannot simply punch into a computer and this is why you would be wise to begin studying those numbers with some objectitivity.There are terms in math for this type of scenerio, its called margin of error.
    SHOW SOME RESPECT FOR JRUE!!!!

  41. ken
    19. February 2013 at 18:34

    steve try my links again they worked when I clicked on them

  42. ken
    19. February 2013 at 18:45

    hey steve do you think theres any way of the sixers to get into the top 5 picks of this years coming draft? if so what do you think they would have to do and who do you think they would take. personally id like them to try and get nerlens noel to be that interior defensive player weve been lacking since dalembert

  43. steve toll
    19. February 2013 at 20:21

    Jeff,

    ATL isnt taking in Beasley, Frye might never play again because of an enlarged heart. Kendall Marshall will never play a meaningful NBA minute.

    Where are the Charlotte trades???

    Jon,

    Dwight > Bynum on offense and it’s not even close, what your saying is just flat out wrong.

    We do not agree on Jrue.

    Bynum was the LAST guy added to the team AND the team kept talking about Orlando 2.0 without having the personnel in place.

  44. Jon
    19. February 2013 at 22:55

    Steve, Dwight Howard is a better basketball player in every aspect of the game of basketball than Andrew Bynum except offense. It is virtually impossible to quantify this because Bynum was in a totally different situation than what Howard was. Howard’s numbers are going to be better because he played on a team in Orlando where he was legitimately the only scoring threat. Whereas Bynum played on a lakers team where he was at best the second option behind Kobe Bryant, not to mention Gasol. Bynums arsenal of moves is far superior to Howard.

    I know based on your last comment that you’re not gonna agree with me on this subject so let’s just Agee to disagree on bynum vs Howard.

    Would you say I gave a fair assessment of jrue? I know you don’t since we don’t agree apparently. But what do you disagree with then?

  45. Jon
    19. February 2013 at 23:00

    Oh and I don’t remember the talk of Orlando 2.0, but I’ll take your word for it. And if that’s what they truly wanted to do than they did do a poor job of designing the roster this offseason. Either way no matter how the team was supposed to be designed, the way the team is now in the present Bynum is far and away the most valuable piece. They have no interior presence without him.

  46. Steve Toll
    19. February 2013 at 23:35

    Freezer,

    Do you know how many points in the paint per game the 76ers give up?????

    I certainly do

  47. Joe
    20. February 2013 at 07:38

    Steve Toll,

    What you said wasn’t relevant to my question to you, so let’s try and do this in a way I think you understand:

    True or false: You use a three-game sample as part of your argument to ascertain that MIL>PHI

    True or false: You disparaged one of your colleagues for using a seven-game sample with regard to how another team will perform for the rest of the season.

    I don’t necessarily disagree with you on your over-riding points – I do think that MIL>PHI (I’d love to have Sanders and Dalembert on my team) and I do think the Bulls will finish the season okay. However, I’m sick and tired of the way that you consistently undermine others in your comments. I try to remain respectful and polite in my comments because I enjoy intelligent debate but you make that impossible with your belligerent and aggressive responses.

    Just out of interest, why is this site no longer part of the Truehoop network?

  48. Steve Toll
    20. February 2013 at 10:40

    Joe,

    I used multiple arguments in my Mil > Phi, the 3 game sample size against the teams played against eachother was part of it.

    My “disparagement” involved the fact that a 7 game sample size against different teams with Joakim Noah being injured is an absurd and idiotic way to show that the “Derrick Rose Comeback Questions” will now be a distraction/the downfall of the Chicago Bulls, when in fact,
    the team is 52-35 the last 2 years in games that Rose missed.

    Did I explain that in a way that you understand?

  49. freezer
    20. February 2013 at 12:11

    what does points in the paint have todo with anything. Have you ever heard of the tower of babel?

  50. freezer
    20. February 2013 at 12:28

    create a stat that accounts for assists out of the paint and pts in the paint and you might get kinda close to properly evaluating our inside defense

  51. freezer
    20. February 2013 at 12:41

    joe its called Li Ning lol

  52. Steve Toll
    20. February 2013 at 14:23

    Freezer,

    “Create a stat that accounts for assists out of the paint and pts in the paint and you might get kinda close to properly evaluating our inside defense”

    I have that info too…..

  53. Joe
    20. February 2013 at 14:55

    Steve,

    I don’t think a three game sample size is nearly enough to prove that MIL>PHI, and here’s why. Here’s a Pearson-rank correlation matrix for the minutes distributions for the three games between the two teams for the Sixers:

    1 2 3
    1 x 0.57 0.02
    2 0.57 x 0.58
    3 0.02 0.58 x

    And now for the Bucks:

    1 2 3
    1 x 0.46 0.40
    2 0.46 x 0.54
    3 0.40 0.54 x

    As you can see, the values are for the most part pretty low, meaning that both teams used very different minute distributions in each of the three games (PHI’s 1-3 figure of 0.02 is particularly noteworthy). Thus, without a larger sample size which will allow for minutes distributions to regress to the mean we cannot say with any degree of certainty that MIL>PHI.

    In fact, we could make the case that the minutes distributions were so different for both teams for each game that the three games were unrelated to one another, meaning that they were akin to CHI’s seven-game sample size where they of course played different teams.

    Some of your other arguments are valid, and as I said earlier I do agree with you that MIL>PHI, but there’s no need to throw the kitchen sink in there with every argument under the sun, because you undermine yourself when you do this.

    Thanks,

    Joe.

  54. Jeff McMenamin
    20. February 2013 at 15:35

    Steve,

    If the 2-5 record during the height of the Rose talks is a bad way of judging the Bulls’ play…How can you explain the Magic’s play last season during the height of the Dwight Howard trade talks?
    http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-120113-15/where-dwight-howard-land
    They went 4-6 during this time period with losses to the Hornets and Sixers where they scored under 70 points. This was coming from a team that finished the season 37-29.

    This is why you can’t put all your chips into stats, the mental factor in the game of basketball is a HUGE thing to consider. It’s kind of why Ewing and Malone never won titles. It got in their head to the point where it affected their play.

    Steve why point out the lat two trades I mentioned first and not focus mainly on the first one?

    Why wouldn’t the Hawks want Gortat, Morris and a Top 15 pick for Josh Smith? The Hawks can cut Kendall Marshall and not take any kind of salary hit. And they’ll be able to hit the FA market hard either this offseason or the next.

    The other two trades just work. They’ll get Gortat and a Top 15 pick…Beasley and Frye are dead-weight, but it’s better than getting nothing for Smith which will happen if they don’t trade him.

    For the Bobcats they could do these trades for smith…

    Trade #1:
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=bf74qj9
    Add first-round pick

    Trade #2:
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=ayusyd8
    With pick

    Or Trade #3:
    http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine/?tradeId=ajco4wm
    With pick

    I can do this all day Steve.

  55. Steve Toll
    20. February 2013 at 15:57

    Jeff,

    You are an idiot, D12 tanked it toward the end last year……

    You are an idiot, LOL thats why Ewing and malone never won titles

    You are an idiot, Why would phoenix give up Gortat, Morris and a lottery pick for Josh Smith when they could sign him outright this summer?

    You are an idiot, you think beasley and frye are more valuable than nothing

    You are an idiot, give up cap room for Ben (J)ordon

    You are an idiot, give up cap room for Tyrus Thomas-Gerald Henderson

    You are an idiot, give up cap room for Tyrus-Byrun Mullens.

    In closing, you are an idiot.

  56. Jeff McMenamin
    20. February 2013 at 16:15

    Steve,

    I’m convinced you’re 10 years old. Or that you’re Howard Eskin.

    Instead of arguing my points in an intelligent manner you claim I’M the “idiot”. Look in the mirror, you’re a fraud who doesn’t explain anything and who claims your “methods” of evaluating players/teams is the best out of any analyst in the world. When people ask for these methods you hide. You’re not fooling anyone who reads this site. The last comment shows your level of immaturity along with your U Mad posts etc, etc, etc.

    If you even read the D12 article it was from January 13th…The BEGINNING of last season…and those were the 10 games that followed. What does D12 tanking at the end have to do with anything?

    If you think those Knicks and Jazz teams couldn’t have beaten Jordan’s Bulls than you are an idiot. There was a mental factor in play, kind of like how Ewing’s Hoya’s couldn’t beat the Villanova Wildcats for an NCAA title….

    THE SUNS WON’T HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SIGN SMITH THIS SUMMER IF HE’S TRADED TO A TEAM THAT WILL MORON.

    Beasley and Frye aren’t more valuable than nothing…But Gortat and a Top 15 pick are stunted Steve.

    Gordon would fit in well with the Hawks plus they’ll get a Top 15 pick.

    Tyrus, Hondo and a Top 15 pick is a great trade for Smith dolt.

    Tyrus and a pick, plus cutting Mullens will give the Hawks plenty of cap room and youth moving forward.

    In closing, you are a child. You are immature, stubborn and lack intelligence.

  57. freezer
    20. February 2013 at 16:36

    good?

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