THE FINAL 16

Posted by: Philadunkia
03/19/13 2:38 pm EST

Outside of Evan “The Enigma” Turner, the 76ers clearly do not understand the fact that tanking for the remainder of this lost season is in the best interest of this franchise.

Instead of going down in flames and looking forward to the 2013 Draft and the upcoming off-season, the 7-6 have refused to give up on their season.  As a result, they have gone out and won 3 of their last 4 games down at the Wells Fargo Center.  Even in their one loss, the 7-6 gave the Miami Heat all the defending champs could handle.

However, we all know the Sixers are horrible on the road (6-23) and 12 of their final 16 contests are away from the WFC.  So there is no way these recent winning ways can continue, right?

That’s the question put to the scribes here at Philadunkia.  Given the Sixers stretch of solid play over the last week or so, “What do forecast will happen with this team over the final 16 games of the 2012-13 season?”  

 

Jeff McMenamin

At this point in the season, nothing the Sixers do will be a shock to me.  It’s been one of the most brutal seasons for any fan to endure.

I was at last nights game and it’s a weird situation when you’re not sure if you should be cheering or booing a lead.  All I know is that these winning ways need to stop now and hopefully this tough road stretch will put the final nail in the coffin this team needs.

In the final 16 I see the Sixers finishing 5-11.  Luckily the Sixers will be facing a lot of playoff teams down the stretch which will make losses a more frequent occurrence.  Hopefully by seasons end the Sixers will have a top seven pick in the draft, which should give them a chance at one of the four guys on my board (Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Shabbaz Muhammad and Victor Oladipo).

Thanks for nothing Andrew Bynum.  Sixers will finish the season 31-51.

Steve Toll

The season of resounding disappointment for everyone involved with the 76ers continues (well not me, I predicted this) as the team heads into the final 16.  Expect the 76ers to pull off 1 upset and generally play at the level we all expect, winning under 40% of games.  Finishing 5-11 and ending the season at 31-51 is where things will shake out.  Unfortunately, when losing is what matters and NOBODY in Philly would blame them for auto-tanking, they’ve gone ahead and won games that have hurt the future of the franchise.  

DC is crazy and will never give up, he is not to be blamed.  ET has done his part in the tanking and should be praised like a returning war hero.  Jrue, Thad, Spencer and Damian Wilkins should be booed mightily as all they have done recently is hurt the teams lottery equity and future championship equity. Good Job, Good Effort for what has quickly become one of the worst franchises in the NBA.

Jake Fischer

Following their win over the Portland Trailblazers last night, the Philadelphia 76ers are back in the 9th spot of the Eastern Conference standings and are just 7.5 games out of the playoffs.  They have 16 games left…THEY CAN DO THIS RIGHT!??  They can make the playoffs!  LeBron will get hurt and they’ll win the 1-8 opening round match-up!  YES!!!!!!!

No.

This team and ownership is ridiculous.  While I understand it’s impossible to sell tanking to your fan base and even your players, you don’t have to use lineups and rotations that will help you win.  Play Jrue and Thad a max of 24 minutes for crying out loud! We know that’s not going to happen at this point, so we know what this team is and will do: They’re gonna fight and ultimately come up short many, many time.  In their final 16 game stretch, I see them pulling out four or five games at the most.  They’re running into 9 playoff teams in that stretch, come on.

Record over last 16: 4-12

Final Record: 30-52

C. Smith

It’s hard to believe,  but the Sixers have played better basketball of late. Spencer Hawes is playing out of his mind recently.   Dorell Wright has finally found his game.  Damien Wilkins continues to contribute nightly.  Thad and Jrue have been consistently good.  The overall offense is improved as the Sixers have been sharing and moving the ball very well in the last 4 games.  

Still, it’s not too late for this team to go down the toilet (or “tank” as some like to call it) here in 2012-13 and I predict that’s exactly what will happen.  This improved level of play will NOT continue against the daunting schedule the Sixers face over the final 16 games of the season.  Spence and Wright will crash back to earth and Wilkins will get worn out.  That will leave Thad and Jrue out there by themselves.  That means the quality ball movement will cease and the offense will return to the stagnant state we have seen all year.  Evan Turner will do a bunch of stupid stuff as well.  As a result the Sixers will win only 4 of the next 16 (@ SAC; vs CHA; @ CHA; vs. CLE) and finish at 30-52.  IMO that’s too many wins for a team that should have gone into full blown “tank” mode two weeks ago and the franchise as well as the fans will regret those hollow W’s in March and April come Lottery time.

 

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17 Responses to “THE FINAL 16”

  1. ken
    19. March 2013 at 15:05

    unless we get into the top 4 for the lottery we aren’t going to get noel or porter so realistically we would have a chance if we get into the top 7 at Muhammad, oladipo, or len.

    what do you think it would take to be able to trade up and grab noel or mclemore whichever one drops down to the 2 spot since that will be cheaper probably

  2. Rick
    19. March 2013 at 16:55

    Those 4-12 and 5-11 records you guys have them going, could easily turn into 8-8, especially if they continue to play the way they’ve been playing. I hope this isn’t the case. It seems like they are playing harder now, then when they had a chance to make it to the playoffs…. I guess they are playing for contracts, but playing the way they are now I got them going 8-8. Playing the way we are use to, I got them going 6-10.

  3. Wang
    19. March 2013 at 17:32

    There gotta be some reasons the team chose not to tank…

    Apparently, players don’t want to tank regardless of any situation, they play for the contract and bread and butter, not the team. But there is nothing to be sad about the team’s current position. Daft pick is not the answer to anything.

    Bad example: Wizards Bobcats, good picks, but you know what is with them.

    Good one: Rockets, being 9th seed for years, look at the roster they assembled now and how they fare this season.

  4. charlie
    19. March 2013 at 18:57

    Wang,

    The only reason the Rockets are good is because they lucked into James Harden, who we could have had for Iggy a few years back. So they’re not a good example at all. Btw, they also hit on the majority of their second rounders, something the sixers blow at. You need a high pick to turn it around.

  5. Matt
    19. March 2013 at 19:53

    Not sure if “The Enigma” fits ET anymore. Think we have him pretty figured out. May I suggest “Clank”? That’s the sound all of his shots make when they hit the rim.

  6. Wang
    19. March 2013 at 21:28

    Charlie,

    It is not reasonable to pin everything on LUCK, which is a small fraction in a team’s success. If you think getting Harden is some sorta luck, Daryl Morey, one of the most geekiest GM in the league, would be mad at you. Don’t estimate the due-dilligence and homework the front office has done to bring in every player.

    Honestly, I could be wrong, I think 76ers’ front office including CEO and GM Dileo is not good enough to match up with other thinking tanks in the league.

  7. CG
    20. March 2013 at 04:36

    The Rockets are 5 games above .500, lol, they’re not exactly beating the world. Also, while nobody may have believed Harden would make such an immediate impact he wasn’t exactly a supreme risk, he was 22 years old and posted a 21+ PER last season with a 66% TS percentage (that’s 8% higher than Kobe’s and Wade’s best seasons). Prior to the trade however he had just signed Lin and Asik to larger contracts than they were worth and none of his drafted players have exactly done anything really, he ‘lucked out’ with Harden in the sense that the Thunder didn’t gauge his value properly and pulled the trigger so quickly.

  8. Ransom
    20. March 2013 at 07:50

    Wang, with regards to your draft picks thing: picks are the way to do. Sure doing anything badly (like the way the Bobcats draft) is bad. But right now, given rosters and all, who would you rather be? Sixers or Wizards? As bad as Washington has drafted over the years I’d kinda rather have their outlook than ours right now.

    Charlie, the Rockets don’t just have luck, though that plays some part in all big moves. They have a plan and one that, in theory is fairly easy:

    1. Get salary cap as low/flexible as possible
    2. Don’t pay for mediocre players
    3. Hire awesome scouts
    4. collect as many draft picks as possible
    5. Stock your team with draft picks and bargain players. The good draft picks, keep, the bad ones, let walk and draft to take their place.
    6. Be on the lookout for a young, talented player in trade or free agency, the picks and cap room will make you suitable for either.

  9. Chief Royster
    20. March 2013 at 08:42

    Watching the games, you can really see that they are running more freely now and I think DC has just told his players to go out there and have fun (Hoping they will TANK), but it is backfiring and its translating to wins. The 76 are young and athletic and when you speed up the game to your strong suits you get W’s. Doug was probobly hoping for the tank and instructed them to just go out and play. They respond by playing loose (like we wanted them to do since the beginning of the season) and make more flashier plays. The 76 are not the Spurs or Celtics. They dont need to play half court ball because old age requires them to do so. The 76 runs, like they always have, score in transition, and play intense defense. You see how many pass deflections they had last game against Portland. they were super active. This is how the sixers are; scrappy and active. Doug forgot that trying to build a Half Court team because of Bynum. I have never liked the trade and Iggy was my favorite player on the 76. I still watch Nuggets games and Orlando games on league pass, and wonder what it woulda been like just trading lou and keeping Moe and Nic. A lineup of Jrue, Iggy, Harkless, Thad and Big Nic would have been a real good lineup that I would have enjoyed watching.

  10. Charlie
    20. March 2013 at 10:38

    Getting James Harden was lucky. Morey’s said it, one of his best friends (bill Simmons) said it, and everyone who looks at the situation says it. The thunder panicked and took the Rockets offer without shopping around more. And let’s be honest guys, the rockets model you guys are slobbering over wasn’t working. Last year the rockets were bad with that approach and Morey was working his way onto the hot seat. Without Getting lucky with Harden, Moreys on his way out, but now he looks like a genius.

    I never said hitting on second rounders was luck. That’s scouting an due diligence.

  11. Steve Toll
    20. March 2013 at 13:58

    Charlie,

    The Rockets did luck into James Harden. That ‘luck’ is that most NBA GMs are completely inept. As for “hitting” on their 2nd rd picks, the only 2nd rd pick on the roster is Chandler Parsons…….

    Matt,

    ET sucks, but some people now blame ET’s horrid production on being counted on to do more in the 36mpg he plays.

    Rick,

    Playing the way the 76ers usually do has got them slightly overperforming when you look at pyhag wins, point diff, Off+Def efficiency.

    The 76ers are on the level of somewhere between 26 and 33 wins when accounting for variance

    Wang,

    Other than the last 3 wins, the team didn’t need to worry about tanking. The teams skill level took care of that already

    I am glad you are not the GM, draft picks matter.

    Most GMs are total and complete idiots who shouldn’t have jobs in the NBA. As bad as Dileo and DC are, they are far worse front office/GMs in the league.

    CG,

    If the Rockets were in the East, there record wouldn’t be 36-31 and that is plainly obvious. They are the 7th seed in the West and without question would be the 2nd best team in the East.

    If an NBA GM didn’t think that Harden was a MAX player this offseason, they should not have a job

    Asik and Lin made $10,000,000 TOTAL this year, LOL at overpaid. In 2 years when they make $30,000,000 total they will be overpaid but not in the traditional sense because of a bunch of reasons.

    Morey’s draft picks haven’t done anything?

    1. They (Lamb, Jones, Patterson, Future 1st rd pick) were part of deals that brought in James Harden and the 5th pick in the 2012 lottery, Thomas Robinson. Not too shabby

    2. Chandler Parsons plays 36mpg of ~average production at SF, he was a 2nd rd pick. http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=parsoch01&y1=2013

    3. Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, and Royce White are all 5+ years from reaching there physical peak as players. Don’t be to hard on them

    As for the Thunder not properly gauging Harden’s value. The real answer is their GM was fooled by randomness and took the position that his ability as a GM was so superior to Hardens on court production that he could make a trade work if Harden didn’t take a discounted deal.
    Fact is that if Presti was soooooooo smart, he would have fired Scott Brooks after game 1 of the MIA-OKC finals last year.

    Ransom,

    Get a superstar, Get another superstar, have a bunch of other good players is what you are really trying to say

  12. Jazzy Fizz
    20. March 2013 at 14:51

    Houston has some work to do but I think they put themselves in good position going forward and i don’t think it was all luck. Harden is the real deal and personally I think Asik is a great center. Jeremy Lin is overpaid but Houston knows all too well about the money that he can rake in from the Asian market ( i.e. Yao Ming), plus he’s not a bad player just a little overpaid. Pretty much Everyone else is on small deals and they have young guys like Thomas Robinson, Parsons, Royce White and Terrance Jones who honestly have not performed very well but have potential and can be role players and trade pieces going forward. Idk how soon they will be serious contenders in a stacked western conference but they are definitely headed in the right direction.

    In regards to the Sixers, I’ve enjoyed watching them play well as of late and it has eased my depression some but that needs to stop haha. Hopefully this road trip will cool us down. It also blows my mind that like Chief Royster said, it looks like DC finally just said “fuck it” and is letting the guys play loose and they are WINNING! I have always been a DC fan but its like anybody who knows anything about basketball could have done a better job coaching this team this season.

  13. Jazzy Fizz
    20. March 2013 at 15:13

    Also Steve Toll, I think you are a serious dick alot of the time but realize that you love being the villain and getting everyone riled up here and I repect that. Also you are and have been correct on nearly every issue discussed on here since the beginning and its hard for people to accept it because you are certainly the villain and you don’t sugarcoat anything. But i commend you and think you would be a good GM. I don’t agree on all of your Jrue Holiday bashing saying he gets outplayed by every other PG but for this team to be a real contender, he cannot be our best player.

    Steve Toll… He GETS THE PEOPLE GOING!

  14. Rob h
    20. March 2013 at 17:27

    How is Steve right about anything. He consistently talks about how bad the people working in the league are. He predicted with Bynum we’d be a lottery team, we are 9th in the east, do you really think Bynum wouldn’t get us in playoffs? He continually talks about how bad of a coach George Carl is but the nuggets are all the rage right now and somehow his hall of fame player, iggy, respects him enough. Steve believes dorrell wright is a good player lol. He thinks spencer hawes should have been signed to 4 year deal, absolutely laughable. He claimed that jrue is below average and he would make the allstar team because Philly is 5th largest city, the coaches voted him in oddly enough. Need I say more? Or can we let this egotistical clown go back to believing he is smarter than all gms and coaches and anyone that has actually played the game? Fact is he will never respond to anything that disproves his theories, but yea Steve is the man all he speaks is truths. And he’s so good at sports betting that with all the profit I’m sure he’s made he still hasn’t created his own blog. So please jazzy fizz spare him the ego trip because his head might explode if his head gets any bigger. O and Steve Thad is still a role player and I love how the sixers are exceeding expectations right now it can’t possibly be the real best player on this team is finally out of his lull and performing at an allstar caliber player once again.

  15. Steve Toll
    20. March 2013 at 20:12

    Charlie,

    You literally have no idea what you’re talking with in regards to Morey/the Rockets.
    Call the Harden deal ‘lucky’ when it’s plainly obvious that OKCs GM and Owners had a serious case of Hubris and we know how that usually turns out.

    Please tell us all about the Rockets model, I’m sure you will have some excellent insight. Talk about the draft, trades, current roster and salary. Or save yourself the agony and go quiet.

    Also the NBA is a super weird place. For instance Ryan Anderson was traded for Gustavo Ayon this offseason. There is literally no plausible explanation for that but things like that happen all the time. GSW gave Dorell Wright, an ~average NBA SF who can play 30+ minutes away for almost nothing, again beyond explanation.

    Jazzy Fizz,

    Lin and Asik make 5/5/15 a year this year, next year, year after. Like you, I love Asik.
    Parsons has actually been a super elite asset, 36mpg of ~average ball for less than a milly.
    T-Rob, Jones, White, Donatas are all 5+ years from their peak as players.

    As for competing, they will have ridiculous cap room next year at minimum $20,000,000. D-12 will certainly be in play and they will do attempt to do something awesome like trade the young guys for Ryan Anderson, a borderline superstar.

    Chief Royster is on the bath salts, of sho.

    In regards to your 2nd post, real recognize real amigo. I don’t know how long you’ve been reading the site but it is very nice to hear that.
    The best is all the haters who have just disappeared, where are they? Maybe they are in the Denver Nuggests forums/sites laughing at them because of how bad they of a deal they got paying 15 mil to a role player and how that’s turned out………….. Oh wait…….

  16. Rick
    20. March 2013 at 23:22

    Steve,

    What’s up with the fake name…..? (Jazzy FIzz)

  17. Wang
    21. March 2013 at 23:16

    Steve and all,

    I am glad that we brought the Rockets on the table since they are quite a good team to learn from in terms of our trajectory now. With that said, a competent front office is really important. I don’t think anyone who is willing to bet on Bynum is smart, although Bynum is a super talented player. But look back on the history of the NBA and even the sports, mentally immature players won’t go too far in their career, including AI ( don’t spit on me). Look at the Spurs and their drama-free and cohesive core throughout the years.

    Steve, I never mean draft picks don’t matter, it matters but not to the degree that you think it is. For this Sixers, everything needs to be overhauled. Gotta get a new crew of front office.

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