THE 76ers LONG TERM POSITION

Posted by: Steve Toll
05/24/13 12:21 pm EST

Unfortunately, Sam Hinkie is in a position to fail.  There is no other way to look at it.  He is a smart guy, but he isn’t that smart.  The Eastern Conference was underwhelming this year, but in the NBA things go in cycles.  Over the next 4 years, there is no realistic way for the 76ers franchise to taste the kind of success that the fans of the organization are clamoring for.

The 76ers cupboard is bare, similar to the Eagles, Phillies and Flyers.  The only thing more disappointing than what is going to happen the next few years is the shock and confusion over what is plain to see for the trained basketball eye.

After the jump, I’ll go ahead and rank how the franchises in the Eastern Conference will perform over the next 4 years.  The criteria involves a wide range of elements — Championship Equity, Room to Improve, Salary Cap Factors and Fan Expectations, etc.

#1) Miami:  The favorites to win an NBA title this year and in 2014-15.  Lebron, Bosh and Wade all have player options that off-season which they are likely to decline in order to take lower salaries and keep their talents in South Beach.  The Heat winning 4,5,6 championships in a row is a very distinct possibility.  “Birdman” has turned into the best free agent acquisition this past year, who could have predicted that?

#2) Indiana:  The Pacers are in a great position moving forward.  David West will likely be resigned to a similar deal (2yr-$20 mil).  Similar to the 76ers and Bulls, they had an impact player essentially miss the entire season in Danny Granger.  Granger will return in 13-14 as the 5th best starter and he was arguably the best Pacer in 2011-2012.  The Pacers are a team on the rise, an elite starting 5 and a young bench to go with a coach who has done a phenomenal job this past year.  Everything is point up for the Pacers, and the question now seems to be “When?”, not “If?” with this team.

(Editor’s note:  An error in the original post missed the fact that James Posey was amnestied in December 2011, so an amnesty of Danny Granger is not possible.)

#3) Washington:  John Wall did something quite unheard of last year and he did it coming off a leg injury — JW took a large jump in possessions used, had an equally big decline in turnover % and increased his scoring efficiency.  Sneaking into the top 3 of this year’s Lottery means a very real shot at Otto Porter or Ben McLemore, who can be eased along playing behind Martell Webster and Trever Ariza or join Wall-Beal in a 3 man back-court.  The Wizards are going to win a lot of games next season and beyond.   Anything less than 45 wins next years with increases every year would be a disappointment for that franchise.  Of course, if they trade Nene+Okafor for the expiring contracts of Biedrins+Jefferson of GSW, they’d be in an arguably better situation moving forward and right at the top of the Wiggins sweepstakes.

#4) Detroit:  Greg Monroe will be close to 20/10 next year and he’s only the 2nd most valuable asset on the team.  Andre Drummond is one of the most untouchable assets in the NBA, but his free throw shooting needs to be at 50% For him to turn into an All-NBA player.  With a possible $35,000,000 available in cap space, Detroit can really make waves.   Joe Dumars needs to do better than Ben Gordon and Charlie V. going forward the next couple off-seasons and Drummond needs to become who I think he will be or listing DET at #4 will seem very foolish.

#5) Cleveland:  First and foremost, Kyrie Irving needs to shake the injury bug, and that is not certainty.  Winning the lottery sure helped with the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes, if they pick Nerlens Noel.  A bunch of draft picks and insane flexibility gives the Cavaliers room to operate.  Thompson, Waiters, Zeller all show some level of promise and are very cheap.  Trading Varejao is a necessity at this point, as he is a negative for them. Swapping him for someone completely awful like Evan Turner would be a massive win in the Wiggins Sweepstakes.  With the possible return of the King to his hometown, Cleveland is a franchise on the rise.

#6) Atlanta:  Horford, Lou Williams, John Jenkins and 2 1st rd picks are the only things on the Hawks’ books this summer.  $38 million in cap space (it’s really less because they will be resigning Jeff Teague) is a scary number for a team that already has one All-Star front court player, as I see them as a dark horse for Andrew Bynum and bringing back Josh Smith isn’t the worst deal ever, if they sign the right coach.  Danny Ferry also has cap room to operate with, which is paramount under the new CBA.  Atlanta will be a very sturdy roster next year, whether it’s short term or long term deals remains to be seen.

#7) Milwaukee:  Sanders and Ilyasova is a very good young duo.  John Henson also showed some ridiculous flashes in 2012-13.  If Ellis is dumb enough to opt out (staying isn’t the worst thing either) and the front office is smart enough to not overpay Brandon Jennings (4yrs @ $32mil), this is another team that can do a lot this off-season.  Using the Amnesty on Drew Gooden, whether this year or next, seems like a foregone conclusion.  Flexibility is the name of the game under this new CBA and the Bucks sure can have that with intelligent moves for years to come.  Milwaukee isn’t a premier free agent destination but it doesn’t need to be because of the new CBA and the limitations that come with it.

#8) Chicago:  Their Head Coach’s willingness to play starters 40 minutes a game has residual effects.  They’ll likely be a #3 seed next season and will only slide from there in coming years. Will Chicago’s owner reach into his own pocket knowing the Bulls have a ceiling that isn’t winning a championship?  Call me crazy but Chicago should ship Derrick Rose to the highest bidder this off-season.

#9) New York, Brooklyn and Boston:  This is a tie.  All these teams are below Chicago because they are less talented and older.  They’ll all be in the playoffs and on vacation well before June the next few years.  There is value in that if you are a fan of those teams.  All 3 of these teams should be blown up, but none will be.  Such is the life of an NBA GM.  Here is a 4 way trade with these teams plus the Lakers that benefits everyone one way or the other;

#12) Orlando:  Two more years in the Lottery and then they’ll be a playoff team for a decade.  Tons of young cheap talent and room to maneuver in the future makes Orlando a true team for the future.  Call me an optimist, but I think that D12 returns to Orlando this summer in a shocking turn of events.

#13) Charlotte:  Three more years in the Lottery, plus a couple picks owed to them from Detroit and Portland and being the front runners in the Andrew Wiggins Sweepstakes has value.  Kemba and MKG are good building blocks at PG-SF, and they’ll have an opportunity to build slowly. They’ll be fighting for a playoff spot in 4 years with a young nucleus that could be viewed as the future of the NBA.

#14) Philadelphia:  The only Andrew the 76ers have a shot at is 7ft tall, smokes cigarettes, doesn’t love basketball, is 25 years old, put up 18/12 when healthy and has everyone in Philadelphia wondering what will happen this off-season.  The new GM can’t let him go but he can’t sign him to a massive deal either.  There is no great answer and there is no reason to think one can be had over the next 4 years.

Making the playoffs is as doubtful as being a bottom 5 team record wise over the forseeable future.  However, if Hinkie grabs a guy who turns into a borderline All-Star with the 11th pick this June, Jrue actually becomes good (he wasn’t at the end of last year), Thad elevates his game with the reintroduction of the 3ball, Bynum is healthy and motivated, Wright is resigned, Hawes plays like a man, Moultrie turns into something, Lavoy gets a motor, ET is traded for a draft pick………. the 76ers will have a chance to get merked by Miami, Indiana or Chicago next year in the 1st round and the next few years will be rinse and repeat.

The team could also do the short term contract thing again this off-season.  Maybe they make the playoffs but the reality is, they’ll have a bottom 10 record with another small chance at grabbing a difference maker.  A few years of doing that and the team is firmly entrenched in the same spot everyone is so adamant doesn’t happen.  A few coaches, another GM and the team truly starts the rebuilding process in 2023.

There is no real scenario that Sam Hinkie can succeed with.  His outside the box thinking is overrated (Asik+Lin deals), anyone can become a CBA expert and the Rockets only drafted on an ~average level during his time there.  He is thought of very highly by NBA people but the average NBA front office guy is half in the bag when it comes to basketball. The circumstances he walked into don’t make it his job easier, but he knows what he signed up for

#15) Toronto:  The smart move is to trade Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson to Boston for Rondo+Celtics 2013 1st rd pick, win the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes in 2014 and amnesty Bargnani at the same time.  From there, the Raptors are suddenly a real NBA franchise with a future.  That won’t happen because it makes sense, obviously.  Toronto is apparently making a run at Denver’s GM which would jump the Raptors to #14 in the rankings.


 
 
 

35 Responses to “THE 76ers LONG TERM POSITION”

  1. Slab
    24. May 2013 at 12:50

    Wow. Glass half empty guy, I’m guessing. Washington is #3 on this list based upon John Wall being a potential cornerstone and adding a top 3 pick in a bad draft, but Philly is 2nd to last? There was only a 5 game difference between the 2 teams this past year. How does last year’s team plus the #3 pick not push the Wizards past the Sixers and the #11 pick? Not really fair to say the Wizards are both in better shape next year and have a better shot at Wiggins, is it? How are the Wizards in better shape than the Sixers? Is there any reason to think McLemore or Porter are more likely to be a superstar than Turner? They certainly aren’t any less likely to get “merked” by Miami et al nor any more likely to end up with a top 3 pick next year. The sixers can tank next year just as easily as the Wizards. The sixers can certainly unload salary and players as easily, right? How much was Bynum on the books for again? Kind of a weird list.

  2. Ransom
    24. May 2013 at 13:19

    Steve,

    Not actually a bad ranking system honestly. Some quibbles over Miami (I don’t think they keep the core together past 2014, if they do i don’t see the same level of success with the way Wade is deteriorating)

    I will call you crazy at the invited opportunity, Why should the Bulls trade Rose? He’s 24, super good. In terms of building around him, Noah and Deng are both all-stars and not old. Also, Boozer’s expiring contract and their treasure chest of future draft picks (they have a near future from Charlotte) could turn into another nice piece.

    Also, you keep saying the Sixers are definitely going to keep Bynum. Why? Im conceding that you might know more than I do about motives for the organization, but what are they?

  3. T. Martin
    24. May 2013 at 13:59

    Could you possibly be any more negative? Why don’t you invest your time in something else? I for one feel like the Sixers might finally have the smartest guy possible manning the GM chair (even smarter than the almighty Steve Toll which I know you think is impossible) and I’m very excited to see what he does. Seriously, dude do you go to kids parties and tell them how much it sucks to get older?

  4. Alex
    24. May 2013 at 16:08

    Too many predictions base on lack of data.
    I am so happy you did not become a medical Doctor. You would have given a healthy person 2 months to live. Thanks for being entertaining anyway. This is what is all about.

  5. Brennan
    24. May 2013 at 19:50

    I stopped reading after he recommended the bulls trade Derrick Rose. Like really man, if you know anything about basketball you know what rose means to the bulls.

  6. Jay
    25. May 2013 at 09:44

    We were 14 games under .500 this year. Guess how many games jrue and Thad missed combined this year? 10. Then you add if hawes hit the layup vs miami and Wilkins didnt foul a 3 in Denver that’s more wins. We don’t know what could have happened in those 10 games so to put us at 12 when we were ninth while our two best players had 10 combined games not played is stupid. Then you add in a Thaddeus young with handles and a 3 point range, improved jrue holiday who was already a top 7 point guard, a healthy Bynum, all star caliber draft pick and shooters and you say that team would only be one seed higher than we were this year? I know you say idiotic things to get people to respond but I couldn’t help but to respond this time. Here’s an interesting stat: in the last five minutes of a game with no one ahead by more than 5 points jrue has a higher field goal percentage than kyrie, Lebron, westbrook, harden, durant, lillard, Kobe, and curry. He accounted for 36 percent of our offense at the least without even considering threes. Out of everyone in the nba only 4 players have to create their offense more than jrue according to hoopdata.com. He’s only assisted on 27.5 of his field goals so 72.5 percent of the time he has to do it himself while being the focal point of the other team and still getting 18 ppg and dishing out 8 apg on the worst scoring team in the league. Once he gets a better team and doesn’t have to work to get his shot off and made 73 times out of 100 and get doubled, his effiency will be way better. A thad with range and handles will certaintly draw attention away and we know a healthy bynum would.We all know how bad he was in April because he was burned out. The real jrue was the one averaging 19 and 9 when we were still in the playoff race and even after he fell from the 19 and 9 category he still was the only player in the nba to average at least 17 and 8. A team with a healthy Bynum, top 7 pg, Thad with handles and a jumper, with a ton of shooters and defenders would be better than the pacers and Knicks and would push the heat to 7 games

  7. Steve Toll
    25. May 2013 at 14:09

    Slab,

    Wall is sooooo much better than Jrue. Beal was quite good the last 4 months of the year and isn’t even 20 years old. They have a bunch of assets to trade, if necessary.
    Whomever they draft is 100% to be a better player than ET.

    Ransom,

    The treasure chest is Nicolas Mirotic, CHI’s 1st rd picks and The Charlotte pick which is essentially a 2015 1st rd pick (top1 protected). Deng and Noah are both 28, Boozer is signed for 2 more season. There bench is going to get shorter because there owner is pretty cheap. Do you expect them to luckbox another Jimmy Butler? Lastly, D-Rose has no heart, dudes a fraud.

    I should probably put Chicago over Milwaukee in hindsight for shipping of Tobias Harris+Doron Lamb. It’s not the worst thing ever, but it shows the GM still might do some really dad stuff. I just really like Sanders, Ilyasova and Henson

    Hinkie isn’t letting Bynum go, it’s a damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t scenario.

    T. Martin,
    IM NOT NEGATIVE, I AM REALISTIC, but I guess a year of being spot on hasn’t registered with you. Hinkie is overrated but only be every bit of evidence you can conjure up about the guy. Getting old does suck, so telling young people to go HAM before real life responsibilities kick in is a reasonable move.

    Alex,
    Tell me how you really feel, bro. That’s all you could come up with. Maybe drop a line like “I disagree with this part because of X”

  8. Jon
    25. May 2013 at 19:59

    I know this is a sixers blog but how is the eagles cupboard bare…flyers too….
    Steve, there is more to life than Andrew wiggins. You act like whoever gets Andrew wiggins is guaranteed multiple championships. Lebron went to Cleveland and gave them zero. Wiggins, while unlikely, could be a bust. There are other players to be had who can make a difference for the sixers than wiggins. And I think hinkie find them.

  9. Rob h
    26. May 2013 at 20:46

    I don’t know why you think rondo will be traded for a bag of chips guess ill just chalk it up to your ineptitude.

  10. Jim
    27. May 2013 at 22:53

    “..but he isn’t that smart.” Alright Skip Bayless, nice analysis there, I love the data used to back the claim up. I didn’t realize you knew how smart Heinke actually is..you then claim that the Lin Asik deals were overrated–guess what, he wasn’t the actual GM in Houston when the deals were made. Give the dude a chance, we might have the first competent GM in town in years, why are you already crucifying him?

  11. View
    27. May 2013 at 23:00

    Steve,

    You love playing GM don’t you? The bad part is that you don’t play it well. Here are the logical fallacies I see in your “conclusions”:

    *I doubt McLemore will fall to Washington and if he does they need a 3 not a 2, seeing they just drafted Beal. McLemore is 6’5″, Porter would be the logical option. Either way they are in a position to succeed due to John Wall’s leap last year.

    *If there’s any franchise that’s perpetually stuck in mediocrity in the East it’s the Hawks.

    *Trade Derrick Rose? Hahaha you were joking, right? Rose is their only chance to defeating Miami. Trade the only player that has performed at a high enough level to snatch a MVP from LeBron in the last 5 years? Hahaha that made my day honestly.

    *What team in the East has the capability to properly defend Bynum other than Indiana? That’s why he’s a franchise changer and needs to be resigned. All this suck for Wiggins talk is foolish. If this was the NFL then it would be a different story but it’s not so play to win. And as previously mentioned by a few of this site’s writers the rest of next year’s draft has a few potential All-NBA players.

    *Why would Boston trade Rondo AND a first rounder for Amir Johnson and Kyle Lowry? That trade is almost as ridiculous as your aforementioned Derrick Rose trade. Rondo is the cornerstone of that franchise so to trade him and future young talent for an athletic but unproductive big man and a lesser point guard (I’m comparison to Rondo) just makes me question your basketball knowledge.

  12. Slab
    28. May 2013 at 09:51

    @ Troll- Wall is better than Holiday when he plays, but he’s played in 40 fewer games the last 3 years. It’s not like Wall is really younger (3 months difference in age). Beal, too, likes like an injury bug waiting to happen already. Saying the #3 pick is 100% to be better than Turner is just incorrect. Ever heard of Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, OJ. Mayo, etc….. You clearly overvalue any piece not on the Sixers and tear down anything Sixer related. It’s ok, it’s what fans do. I agree with the general premise of your post, i.e.- the Sixers are in a tough spot to get better, but you really stretch things to make your point when you put the Sixers in the #14 hole. It’s your list though, probably wrong to expect anything else when the “criteria” include “championship equity” and “fan expectations”. Not exactly real metrics….

  13. Dahsir
    28. May 2013 at 09:53

    I won’t delve into the ridiculousness of putting Washington at 3 or Charlotte ahead of Philly (MKG is a guard who can’t shoot and they have already traded away some of their future picks).

    However, this lackluster article can be summed up by the ridiculous 4-way team trade. First, even the flawed ESPN trade analyzer predicts EVERY team with a worse record. Second, you expect Boston to trade their best (and possible franchise) player and their arguably second best prospect for Steve Nash and Kris Humphries?!? It seems plausible that Danny Ainge would like to get two players with great deals off his books for an older point guard and a guy best known for being an ex-Kardashian.

    The NBA trade machine can be a fun exercise but it seems as though you believe you made a legit NBA trade…nothing illustrates more that you have no business analyzing the position Hinkie is in.

  14. Steve Toll
    28. May 2013 at 09:56

    Jay,

    Your horrible arguments might work on the depressed fans and LBs of 76ers blogs, but that doesn’t fly with me

    14 games under .500 while running super hot from a variance perspective. INJURIES COUNT IN BASKETBALL. If you understood the psychology of the NBA and how opponents approach the regular season, you would feel alot different about how the year went for the 76ers.

    CP3, Westbrook, Parker, Deron, Conley, Rose, Irving, Curry, Wall, Hill, Lawson Calderon, Lowry, Kemba, Dragic, Jennings are all guys who project to be better than Holiday next year and minus Rose, were all better this season.

    18pts and 8 assists being an inefficient chucking turnover machine and being a bad defender. That is Jrue Holiday.

    What team is taking the Knicks or Pacers to 7 games? PLEASE LIST THAT FANTASY ROSTER

    now if you’re saying a team with John Wall, Andrew Bynum, Thad Young, Ryan Anderson, Dorell Wright, Birdman, Matt Barnes, Hawes, Ronnie Brewer, Jodie Meeks, Lou Williams could take MIA to 7 games….then you are making sense but you’re not.

    Jon,

    The Flyers suck, The Phillies Suck and 9/10 College coaches fail miserably in the NFL

    Lots of guys can make a difference and Houston has missed out on a bunch of them in free agency (like most teams) and guys who are thought of as idiots (MYSELF) have pointed out a bunch of quality players last season who could have been had at the veteran minimum. Birdman, Barnes, Brewer were all Steve Toll SLAM DUNK SIGNINGS but Houston got 0 of them. How did Houston miss out on Ryan Anderson or either Jarrett Jack/Dorell Wright? or a bunch of other obvious moves..

    There are tons of guys for Hinkie to find, but considering the Rockets inability to do that in years past and the fact that Houston has drafted ~average in his time with the team and his 2 biggest moves the Lin and Asik deals are massively overrated……

    RobH,

    Do you know the EV of the 16th pick in the NBA draft? OH WAIT YOU DONT

    I bet if I told you that the trade was Jrue+Thad for Rondo you would make some remark involving the word INCREDULOUS that the 76ers would do that….

    yet you would just prove how INEPT you really are http://bkref.com/tiny/hZVRY

    Jim,

    I don’t care if my opinions are well received, I just care about being correct and continuing to be the best 76er writer/analyst in the known universe

    View,

    You are an idiot and here is the proof:

    McClemore is 6’3.5, NOT 6’5, and im 7’4 on stilts LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES

    Nerlens Noel is going to be the #1 pick. Washington has the 3rd pick in the draft. If you CORRECTLY assume that Ben, Porter, Burke, Victor and Bennett are all being looked at with the #2 pick then you are saying that Mclemore is 51% to be pick with the #2 pick, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES

    You then says that Porter is the logical fit because he is a SF, that is like saying Cleveland wouldn’t draft a Lebron James clone because he’d break their hearts again after 7 years, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES

    The Atlanta Hawks have won 6.2 more games than the “average” NBA team over the past 5 years (including 2012 which WAS NOT extrapolated to an 82 games season), LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES

    Derrick Rose is massively overrated. He is the 2nd most overrated PG in the NBA behind Jrue Holiday. He is also a crybaby who has no heart. He was given the MVP award, he didn’t win it, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES ABOUND

    IND, CHI, MIA, NYK, BKN, TOR, CLE, BOS, ATL, DET, MIL, WAS are all teams capable of defending Bynum, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES ABOUND

    Bynum should be resigned, we agree on something… BUT THEN

    I am assuming you think that Bynum would lead this team to a 50 win season, AND you mention the possibility of the 76ers grabbing a future All-NBA player in the 2014 draft, which wouldn’t be possible because 50 wins would get the 76ers into the playoffs and that means they’d trade away their first rd pick in 2014, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES ABOUND

    Rondo is the cornerstone of overrated defense and being a late game liability, he is also a headcase. Lowry+Amir Johnson are far more valuable but only in the sense of winning basketball games, which is paramount for Boston to do next year. Do you understand the EV of the 16th pick in the draft? Did you just call Amir Johnson, unproductive?
    http://bkref.com/tiny/aVAMR
    http://www.82games.com/1213/12TOR14.HTM

    like I said, LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES ABOUND

  15. Steve Toll
    28. May 2013 at 17:59

    Slab,

    Good lucking finding a team that would take Jrue > Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter, cause it ain’t happening. I’ve been hating on Mayo for awhile but he is decent value at ~$5 mil per season.

    Where do you put the 76ers over the next 4 years in the LEastern Conference?

    Dahsir,

    MKG is a SF who happened to be the youngest player in the NBA last year.

    Your thoughts on that trade are hilariously bad. There is a lot to it, but think what you want.

  16. Steve Toll
    28. May 2013 at 18:28

    Brennan,

    What does D-Rose mean to the Bulls? He had 1 really good (totally overrated season), has been injury prone and showed no heart when it mattered! What am I missing?

  17. Eric
    28. May 2013 at 19:27

    Trading Derrick Rose wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Especially considerng their record w/o him. It’s something to at least consider.

    And FWIW, you can pretty easily trade Kobe to Chicago in some Rose deal.

    Gets D’Antoni an uptempo PG, and get Kobe away from Dwight…assuming he doesn’t get smart and go to Hou or Dallas.

  18. Jon
    28. May 2013 at 20:01

    Does anyone else read Liberty Ballers and is unable to believe the difference in levels of hope???

  19. Steve Toll
    29. May 2013 at 01:28

    Eric,

    Can’t really see a scenario where Kobe goes to a team that isn’t TANKING, if he’s traded

    Jon,

    The head guy at Liberty Blowers actually said that with a healthy By um, Philly is the 2nd most talented team in the East. That was before the start of the year……

    In reality, I’m the only one who is REALLY pushing the 76ers are screwed and they had one of the worst off seasons ever last year and Thad>Wright>Hawes>Lou Williams>Jrue

  20. Rob h
    29. May 2013 at 02:56

    Steve,
    How you still don’t understand that bench player stats if they were starting would go significantly down is beyond me, any gm could tell you that even your favorites. Playing against other teams best players on a consistent basis is enough to make all your toll goodies not look so good. So when I say inept that’s why. You love to bring up how in-efficient holiday was this year, well with no backup point guard on this talentless roster as you love to talk about who is supposed to step up. It’s easy to make birdman look good when he’s playing with 3 of the top 20 players in the league, one being easily the best the other being in the top ten to top 5. You are such a novice it’s incredible anyone who is in the league would smack the shit out of you.

  21. Rob h
    29. May 2013 at 02:57

    Pat Riley and Phil Jackson would have you deported but I’m sure you are smarter than them as well.

  22. Steve Toll
    29. May 2013 at 08:47

    RobH,

    There are 240 minutes to be played in an NBA game, and its hilarious that you seemingly fail to understand that.

    WHAT DOES A BACKUP POINT GUARD HAVE YO DO WITH JRUE BEING A INEFFICIENT CHUCKING TURNOVER MACHINE?

    Birdman has been awesome the past few years BUT only by every metric there is in existence.

    You wouldn’t smack me lil boy

  23. Steve
    29. May 2013 at 11:24

    What exactly is being overvalued about those 3 compared to turner?

    This year…

    Turner: MPG 35.3 FG .419 3% .365 FT .740 RPG 6.3 APG 4.3 SPG .9 BPG .2 PPG 13.3

    Mayo: MPG 35.5 FG .449 3% .407 FT .820 RPG 3.5 APG 4.4 SPG 1.1 BPG .3 PPG 15.3

    Kanter: MPG 15.4 FG .544 3% 1.000 FT .795 RPG 4.3 APG .4 SPG .4 BPG .5 PPG 7.2

    Favors: MPG 23.2 FG .452 3% .000 FT .688 RPG 7.1 APG 1.0 SPG .9 BPG 1.7 PPG 9.4

  24. Joe
    29. May 2013 at 12:14

    Steve Toll,

    On 23rd May you said this:

    “The draft is a crapshoot of sorts”

    But then in this article you said this:

    “the Rockets only drafted on an ~average level during [Hinkie's] time there”

    If you believe that it’s a crapshoot, though, isn’t that what you’d expect? In a no-skill game, everyone converges to the mean.

  25. Jon in LA
    29. May 2013 at 12:48

    A grown man living in his parents’ basement says a former Rookie of the Year and the youngest MVP ever is overrated and has no heart. LOL LOGICAL FALLACIES ABOUND

    Classic Steve Toll folks.

  26. freezer
    29. May 2013 at 13:22

    You should switch chicago and washington, and then move philly behind atlanta and your list looks alot more plausible. I think Washington is probably on the right track, but theyre cap situation is borderline. Id much prefer Jrue and his contract to Wall and his impending max contract. I think brooklyn is poised to become very irrelevant very fast, as our the knicks, and boston. When you take in the fact that all the teams in our division are somewhat hopelessly flawed, the sixers actually have some light ahead. In 3 seasons we could easily win our division if we just keep adding solid contributors to what we already have. I think toronto should be higher as well, with the right coach they could be a dangerous team, of course andrea would need to start stretching the floor.

  27. View
    29. May 2013 at 15:26

    Steve,

    Please research before you write. You are correct that McLemore is 6’3.5″ but that is without shoes. He is actally 6’4.75″ with shoes, so name me the last time an NBA player played without shoes and I’ll concede you that point.

    With the No. 3 pick, teams usually draft players they view as potential starters and cornerstones of their franchise. So why would Washington draft Brke when they have Wall? Why would they draft McLemore of Oladipo when they have Beal? They are not going to waste the No. 3 pick on a bench player, even if he is the first player off the bench. The only logical choices at that pick for them are positions of need, which makes drafting Porter, Bennett, or Zeller (with the latter being a long shot) the only reasonabl assumptions.

    When I spoke of Atlanta I spoke of their mediocre performance. Yes they perform better than the average NBA team but that still does not mean they are not mediocre. As factual evidence, refer to their regular season record over the past 5 seasons where they have only eclipsed a win percentage of 60% once (not including the lockout season). And they have not advanced past the 2nd round of the playoffs in any of those seasons, with the latter two ending in 1st round exits. Isn’t this similiar to what you projected in this statement about the Sixers: “However, if Hinkie grabs a guy who turns into a borderline All-Star with the 11th pick this June, Jrue actually becomes good (he wasn’t at the end of last year), Thad elevates his game with the reintroduction of the 3ball, Bynum is healthy and motivated, Wright is resigned, Hawes plays like a man, Moultrie turns into something, Lavoy gets a motor, ET is traded for a draft pick………. the 76ers will have a chance to get merked by Miami, Indiana or Chicago next year in the 1st round and the next few years will be rinse and repeat.” The Hawks have been on “rinse and repeat”, as you put it, for a while now hence the hiring of Budenholzer in hopes of eliminating that cycle.

    Tell me how my statement about Derrick Rose is a logical fallacy. Your reponse was purely opinion with no basis in facts. A fact is that he did win the MVP. Another fact is that he did take his team to the Eastern Conference Finals. Steve, I’m starting to lose a great deal of respect for your writing skills and manner.

    In referring to how teams defend Bynum I was purely making a statement based off his prior successes in Lakerland and the player personnel of Eastern Conference teams. While this is not based in fact since we have yet to see Bynum play, if Dwight Howard could dominate and put up 20+ ppg in the East, Bynum could do the same seeing he possesses a more advanced offensive skill set. And to provide evidence of my opinion, in Bynum’s last season in Lakerland his stats against the teams you mentioned capable of defending Bynum are:
    Indiana: 16 ppg, 8 rpg, 50% fg
    Chicago: No games played
    Miami: 15.5 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 50% fg
    NYK: 3 ppg, 13 rpg,12.5% fg
    BKN (formerly the NYN): No games played
    Toronto: 14 ppg, 9 rpg, 53.8% fg
    Cleveland: 15 ppg, 11 rpg, 77.8% fg
    Boston: 18 ppg, 15.5 rpg,48.4% fg
    Atlanta: 15 ppg, 15 rpg, 70% fg
    Detroit: 30 ppg, 14 rpg, 72.2% fg
    Milwaukee: 15 ppg, 9 rpg, 60% fg
    Washington: 19 ppg, 6 rpg, 75% fg
    Understandably some of the personnel has changed on these teams since the 2011-12 season but the fact remains that his sole horrible performance came against the Knicks. So to amend my previous statement what teams oter than the New York Knicks or Indiana can adequately defend Bynum.

    I did not forecast the win total with a healthy Bynum, I only mentioned the fact that next year’s draft has a few potential all-stars, other than Wiggins, so I do not know where your statement is coming from.

    One interesting fact I learned after Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was that Rondo has a total of 10 playoff triple-doubles. Here’s a homework assignment for you: Do Lowry and Johnson even have a 10 REGULAR SEASON triple-doubles combined?

  28. Slab
    29. May 2013 at 16:58

    @ Troll- So you see Washington as the #3 team in the East over the next 4 years and the Sixers as #14? Will you revisit in 4 years?

  29. Slab
    29. May 2013 at 17:01

    @ Troll- You obviously have an anti-Sixer bias if Kanter, Favors, and Mayo represent successful #3 overall picks and evidence this year’s #3 is guaranteed to be better than ET.

  30. Steve Toll
    30. May 2013 at 09:02

    Steve,
    Whatever point you are trying to make is wrong.

    Joe,
    I didn’t say it was the casino game ‘craps’, I said it was a “crapshoot, of sorts”

    Jon in LA,
    It’s a big basement, bro. Rose is overrated and has no heart….

    Freezer,
    Should maybe have Chicago up higher, but I really see things going downhill after next year+ridiculous fan expectations make it hard for me to move em’ up. The 76ers are far more likely to be last in the division in 3 years as opposed to 1st.
    It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Wall’s contract, gonna have to wait.
    Bargnani is terrible beyond terrible.

  31. Steve Toll
    30. May 2013 at 09:22

    View,

    Who cares how tall someone is in shoes? Seriously, height is what it is.

    “With the No. 3 pick, teams usually draft players they view as potential starters and cornerstones of their franchise.”

    You make this remark, my response is…. What if WAS views Burke, Oladipo or Mclemore or whomever as future All-NBA level talents? Like others before you, it seems like you forget there are 96 minutes for a PG+SG to play in an NBA game. If one if those guys is a future stud, it won’t be the worst problem to have.

    I like ATL, they have run bad in the playoffs and been mismanaged on the court.

    Find someone outside of Chicago (who isn’t brain dead) and they will laugh at the notion of Derrick Rose winning the MVP.

    D12 > Bynum in offense, there is 0 evidence to show otherwise.

    Please forecast a MINIMUM win total next year with a healthy Bynum

    Since 85-86 teams are 771-258 when guys have triple doubles, but Rondo has a torn up knee, and a roster that is in decline for his skillet and he’s regressed on Defense

  32. Steve
    30. May 2013 at 09:22

    < not steve toll. Only saying Kanter/Mayo/Favors are favorable over ET, especially since two of em are ONLY 21 and were stuck behind Millsap/Jefferson. So yes in comparison to ET, they are successful picks.

  33. Joe
    30. May 2013 at 16:50

    Steve Toll,

    Interesting, so you think there is skill in starting players, thereby rendering it not a crapshoot, of sorts.

  34. Joe
    30. May 2013 at 16:51

    Damn autocorrect! I meant ‘drafting’ not ‘starting’

  35. Steve Toll
    30. May 2013 at 20:38

    Joe,

    Uggghhhhhhh It is a “crapshoot, or sorts”

    Definition of ‘crapshoot’ is……… unpredictable venture

    Are you really this obtuse? Yes, it’s deliberate

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