ANALYZING THE 2010 DRAFT

Posted by: Jake Fischer
09/25/13 12:45 pm EST

evanturner2010draftAt the conclusion of the 2013-14 season, the members of the 2010 NBA Draft class’ rookie contracts will all slide off their respective teams’ salary cap and enter the curious world of the cap hold and qualifying offer.

The Draft’s No. 1 overall pick, John Wall has already signed a max extension with the Wizards.  Larry Sanders cashed in with the Bucks this summer, too.  DeMarcus Cousins is reportedly nearing a max-deal with Shaq-amento.  And today, the Pacers and Paul George announced a 5 year/ $90 million max-agreement of their own.

However, no other member of this mediocre Draft class has struck a deal with their first professional teams.  When you look over the class, that fact isn’t one that’s terribly difficult to swallow.

Only 18 of the players that were selected in on June 24, 2010 have, at bare minimum, carved out a niche on a team and received consistent minutes within an 8 to 10-man rotation.

Of course, the Philadelphia 76ers’ used the second overall pick in this very draft to bring Evan Turner to the Wells Fargo Center and the team’s fans—and Doug Collins—have clearly not taken a liking to The Enigma’s antics and style of play.

But, when you compare him to the rest of the Draft class, was the Sixers’ selection of Turner actually as abominable as it seems via the eye test?

If you take a birds-eye view of those aforementioned 18 players, you can break down the group in four categories: Franchise Players, Potential All-Stars, Third-Option Players and Contributing Role Players.

A franchise and potential All-Star player goes without explanation. A third-option player is someone who could one day be a third-option on a contending team and a contributing role player is someone who has already reached that level of play, but most likely won’t eclipse that threshold.

Here’s how it breaks down, in descending order of career success in the NBA.

Franchise Players

1. Paul George

2. John Wall

 

Potential All-Stars

3. DeMarcus Cousins

4. Greg Monroe

 

Third-Option Players

5. Larry Sanders

6. Derrick Favors

8. Gordon Hayward

9. Evan Turner

10. Lance Stephenson

11. Patrick Patterson

12. Eric Bledsoe

13. Avery Bradley

 

Contributing Role Players

13. Greivis Vasquez

14. Quincy Pondexter

15. Jordan Crawford

16. Ed Davis

17. Ekpe Udoh

18. Jeremy Evans

 

Clearly, the tier that generates the most debate is where Turner falls, players that can become a legitimate third-option on a contending team in the NBA. It’s also the role that is the hardest to fill and pay correctly in the NBA, so the discussion is warranted.

It’s inarguable that Lance Stephenson had the most impact in the playoffs this past season, averaging 9.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game for the Pacers this past postseason.  But in terms of overall career, Stephenson has just been placed into an integral role in the League.

Next, Derrick Favors leads the pack in career PER and arguably has the best upside of any player in this group, being the physical specimen he is and being in a system that will certainly look to get he and Enes Kanter heavily involved over the next three seasons.

Thus, when you look at the rest of the category, the biggest debate lies in whether Turner is better than Favor’s teammate in Utah, Hayward.  Look at their specific player comparison, especially in the advanced stats, and the former Butler Bulldog clearly takes the cake from Turner and Hayward is 17 months younger.

When you compare the two swingmen, Hayward bests Turner in every measurement of production within the game outside of rebounding and assists over their three-year careers all in 3.1 less minutes per game— though the assist margin is a narrow 0.7 per game since 2010-11.  Hayward has also done this while attempting nearly two less shots per contest over his career as well.

But when you consider both of these players’ skills and attributes, they might work better as a potential third option for one team and not another.  For example, Turner’s elite rebounding for his size (I’d say position, but we can’t necessarily pin him at a specific position) might blend in better with a team that has a surplus of scoring from its top-two options, say an Oklahoma City or Miami-type offensive system.  But, Hayward’s ability to spot up and defend quicker perimeter players could fit the likes of the Memphis Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs.

With all that in mind, even though he hasn’t amounted to the kind of player that you would like the number 2 overall pick in any given draft to be, Turner hasn’t had as horrible of an early career as Philadelphia has made it out to be, in context with the rest of his Draft class.

Now, in no way am I defending Turner.  If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I’ve dramatically flipped from Turner fanboy to detractor over the course of the 2012-13 campaign.  But, what all this does mean is that it may not be totally unrealistic for the Sixers to be able to swap Turner for one of the lower-ranked players from the 2010 class at some point this season.  Obviously, the Jazz are tied to Hayward and Favors, the Pacers are locked in with Stephenson and the Suns just traded for Bledsoe.  So those names are not likely pieces in any trade involving ET.  But, the Sixes could feasibly deal Turner for anyone else that isn’t a franchise player or potential All-Star.

Hell, if Sam Hinkie packages Turner with Thad Young and New Orleans’ first round draft pick, maybe the 76ers could even bring in Cousins or Monroe if their respective situations don’t work out this season, provided they take back an additional contract, too. (It should go without saying that given the rumored DMC max-extension, the Detroit deal would be a much, much better option with the ability to take back an expiring deal in addition to the young, promising franchise cornerstone.)

At the end of this all, even if Philadunkia has grown tired of Evan Turner, his numbers actually look somewhat attractive with a slight hint of upside to the rest of the NBA.  That’s a recipe for very exciting trade possibilities.


 
 
 

5 Responses to “ANALYZING THE 2010 DRAFT”

  1. Tony
    25. September 2013 at 13:12

    It’s funny that you compare ET to Hayward b/c ET plays like a white boy, stiff as a board… except he can’t shoot. That being said, I give ET the nod over Hayward’s game.

    All that needs to known about ET for other team’s general managers:

    Eyeball test. Fail.

    Should have drafted Cousins. End of Story.

  2. Steve Toll
    25. September 2013 at 14:15

    Tony,

    Why do you view ET as better than Hayward? Hayward shoots better, is a better offensive rebounder, better on defense and slightly worse passer

    Jake,

    I feel you are understating how awful ET is. He has some very good game, but his averages make it clear the good isn’t worth the bad. His defensive rebounding numbers are a joke, totally inflated as evidenced by his putrid offensive rebounding (the truest test of rebounding ability)

    For instance, would you press a button and swap ET for Al-Farouq Aminu this year? You press the button if you think it would make the 76ers better. Here are their #s from last year; http://bkref.com/tiny/cC52a
    Aminu is also 23 months younger than ET

    While you have ET pegged as a “3rd Option”, in an 2010 redraft, ET isn’t a lottery pick

  3. haygood
    25. September 2013 at 14:18

    Wish the 6ers had stayed at their pre-draft spot, which I think was 6. We would’ve drafted a better player than ET.
    But the idea of dealing ET, Thad, and NO 2014 pick for Greg Monroe is crazy. I’d much rather take a chance on the player in next years draft over Monroe. But i’d be elated if Hinkie swapped ET for Ed Davis, who showed promise with Toronto last year before riding the pine with Memphis.

  4. Alex
    25. September 2013 at 22:22

    George perhaps but John Wall is not a franchise player by any means. He has not done anything significant. ET will come out this year with Brown. And Monroe, a Potential all star? ummmmm!!!!!

  5. Ransom Cozzillio
    26. September 2013 at 08:10

    Ok, so I’m really glad you made it clear you aren’t an ET fan and are saying all this with an eye to trade him. If not, this would be an even less tenable post.

    First, while in hindsight this draft looks worse than people thought at the time in terms of useful and elite talent, you only give cursory mention to Turners draft position. If he was picked 14th, this piece would be solid. He wasn’t, he was picked 2. Any team entering the draft should have the goal of getting the Xth best player, with X being their pick number. The Sixers SHOULD have gotten the 2nd best player.

    By your list they got the 8th. But, I’m not so sure, use the “would they trade him for…” math. Given Turners age, petulant attitude, and history of below average production a call offering him for Bledsoe, Bradley, or Stephenson would get Hinkie laughed off the phone. And, I suspect calls for Davis and Vasquez would be met with just a no.

    That’s where the true tragedy of Turner comes in. Maybe he’ll be a semi-productive player some day, on our team or another I’m not hoping against it. But his devaluation of the 2nd pick is what really gets me.

    On draft night, pre-pick. the sixer’s pick could have been traded for anyone on that list plus extra. As soon as a year later, there were twelve players for the draft that pick (now turner) couldn’t net.

    In what’s turning out to have been a 6-7 player draft, getting 13th best isn’t defensible.

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