HOW HIGH IS NOEL’S CEILING?

Posted by: Michael Kaskey-Blomain
10/02/13 2:23 pm EST

Nerlens-NoeldribblescopyNerlens Noel had a unique college career.

Not only was it exceptionally short, as injury issues limited him to 24 total games, but he was also one of the rare college players that was able to achieve extreme accolade and build a buzz largely based around what he did on the defensive end.

Although he eventually slipped to sixth on draft day 2013 due to concerns about his knees and the company he keeps, Noel was widely considered one of the most, if not the most, promising prospect coming out of college this summer. Many mock drafts had him pegged as the top pick.

Noel was able to garner all that attention while attempting less than seven shots a game, and posting a total usage of just over 17%.  Compare that stat to Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum, the 10th overall pick in the 2013 Draft, who posted a usage rate of 37.2% during his truncated senior season.

With more polished options like Archie Goodwin, Ryan harrow and Kyle Wiltjer at his disposal, Noel certainly wasn’t the focal point of Coach Calipari’s offense in 2012-13.  Instead Noel compiled most of his 10.5 points per contest on put-backs and dunks.  Even Anthony Davis, Noel’s predecessor at Kentucky’s center spot who also posted a comparatively low usage rate of 18.8% during his single collegiate season, would often operate with his back to the basket.

It is very rare for a player whose offensive usage was so limited to be in the conversation as a possible first overall pick. Usually highly-hyped college players demand attention for their offensive abilities.  However, Noel is unique and doesn’t compare cleanly to many recent collegiate or professional players.  He is the breed whose NBA success won’t be measured plainly in points.

Sixers GM Sam Hinkie for one, sees Noel as a weapon.

“Every coach will see him as a weapon defensively,” Hinkie stated at Noel’s introductory press conference last month.

“I see [Noel] as a guy that can change the game on the defensive end.”

Change the game from the defensive end is exactly what Noel did throughout his short stint at Kentucky.  In addition to an impressive two steals per game, the 6’11’’ center led the nation with a staggering 4.4 blocks per contest last season.  As evidenced by those stats, Noel is one of the best shot blockers to enter the League in recent memory, and his speed and athleticism should allow him to become a premier paint protector.

“There are so few players that can both protect the rim and rebound, and that’s really critical before we even get to the offensive end,” Hinkie stated, alluding to Noel’s potential eventual import.

A lot of young players can put the ball in the basket, and at only 19, Nerlens Noel has a lot of time to develop that aspect of his game.  Far fewer players however, can control a game from the defensive end.  Patrolling the paint, altering the opponent’s offense, and creating extra possessions comes naturally to Noel.

If he can develop into the defensive anchor that Sam Hinkie and many others think he can become, then he may prove invaluable to the future of the Sixers franchise.

 

Michael Kaskey-Blomain is a scribe for Philadunkia.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealmikekb.

You can follow us on Twitter @philadunkia.


 
 
 

3 Responses to “HOW HIGH IS NOEL’S CEILING?”

  1. Brennan
    2. October 2013 at 20:29

    To me noel has unlimited potential on both ends’ of the court. Defense wise he is already a stud being just a havoc for other offenses he faced in college. The best part is that he can only get better with time and expierence. Offense is another matter. At first he will get his points from dump off passes and putbacks from offensive rebounds. He is only 19 so his potential on offense is limitless. If he gains weight he can work in the post or just use his athletism to blow by defenders. A 10 to 15 ft jumpshot is also a possibility. His development is key to the sixers bright future ahead. I already love this guy man he is indeed a franchise changer no doubt.

  2. Ransom Cozzillio
    3. October 2013 at 10:01

    I think he’ll be a game changer in the literal sense of the word assuming he can stay healthy. That, clearly, is paramount. I don’t know the recidivism rates on ACL tears but I don’t think it’s that high. I just have to hope this particular injury was a fluke and not indicative of greater knee instabilities or problems.

    I’m not so worried about his offense. Clearly it has room to and should improve. But even if he maxes out as a 13-15 ppg scorer (seems reasonable) but brings double digit boards, and high steal, assist, block numbers for his position, we’re set for a decade at his position.

  3. George
    5. October 2013 at 08:09

    I have a feeling Noel will be a mix of Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby, a great presence on defense and a much weaker one on offense. Best way to start a fast break though, just hope that they can develop some if any offense. By the way, for the record: Definition of RECIDIVISM

    : a tendency to relapse into a previous condition or mode of behavior; especially : relapse into criminal behavior

    I don’t know if anyone else needed it but I know I did

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